Not to sound like an F-22 cheerleader but I thought this was interesting. . .

"Tom Cooper" wrote in message
news

"Pete" wrote in message
...

"Tom Cooper" wrote

If you consider that there are over 200 Su-27/30s supported by several
AWACS
in Chinese service alone right now, how do you think could the USAF
and
the
USN help defend Taiwan - just for example - with two squadrons of
F-15s
(on
Okinawa) and few squadrons of Hornets on the carrier based in Japan?

I should think that the 200 or so Taiwanese F-16's and Mirages would
want
a
part of that.

Super: now the ROCAF should be fighting to establish air superiority for
the
USAF and the USN?

That statement is even more preposterous than your assertion that the USN is
involved in redefining the air-to-air arena to support fielding of the
F/A-22. The ROCAF would, if the US became involved, be fighting the same
enemy in the same geographical area, and you can bet it would be in
coordination with US assets. That you have chosen to completely disregard
the contribution of the ROCAF may be convenient for your agenda, but it is a
ludicrous oversight.


What an argument... But, if we're talking about "mine is bigger than
yours":
by the time the first F-22s are going to enter service there are going to
be
over 400 Su-27/30s in China,

Let's see, the first F/A-22's have already entered into their operational
test and eval phase, and the 1st TFW is scheduled to get their first birds
in the 2005-06 timeframe IIRC. The PLAAF has, from what I have seen on the
sinodefence.com site, some 120 total Su-27/30 variants in service now (out
of a total of some 175 on order) from Russia and some 200 in the
construction pipeline in the PRC, and indicates that it is expected some 48
aircraft will be added to the 120 number in service by 2006--it would appear
that your timeline may be a little off, unless you think all of those 200 or
so domestic production examples will be completed over the next year or two
(and then they's still have to order another 25 or so Russian built aircraft
just to meet your four hundred figure, much less acheive "over 400").

plus some 300 J-10s, JF-17s and similar
animals.

What?! You actually think they are going to field that number of J-10's and
FC-1/JF-17's over the next couple of years? Holy crap, Batman--the FC-1 just
had its maiden rollout last year (and is intended to meet export market
requirements--no indication yet it will enter into PLAAF service)! The J-10
has been a pretty slow program--last I heard they were still dicking around
with which engine to mount in it, and there is some doubt as to whether or
not it will *ever* enter into major frontline service with either PLAN or
PLAAF units in anything other than nominal numbers.

In an environment where nothing short of at least a 1:6 exchange
ratio would be needed, but where anything beyond 1:3 is actually unlikely
(at least according to calculations based on current data), not a very
brilliant prospect.

If the aforementioned numbers are representative of your "data", then excuse
me for not buying into the validity of your assertion (which also discounts
PLAAF losses due to ADA, SAM, and interdiction efforts, I presume).


But OK; feel yourself as "winners": obviously warning about such matters
is
considered here as "anti-US", so I guess somebody has first to hit the
wall
head-on... (it wouldn't be the first time, but at least that functions for
sure).

You have to be able to present a credible case--you have fallen far short
thus far. Merely playing Chicken Little, without a decent set of supporting
data, is not going to get you too far.

Brooks


Tom Cooper

Pete,

No, they should be fighting for their own territory. Unless you think the
USAF and USN should be able to go it alone, everywhere around the globe at
the same time.

Well, from the way the USAF runs specific operations in the last 15 years,
it appears that there is no chance of anything else happening.

The problem is this: the USA have an obligation to defend Taiwan (except
some US admin finds this is 0 and void), and they have a treaty with Japan
and South Korea. But, there is no way the USA to hit China first.
Consequently the first blow in such a scenario would obviously be delivered
by the Chinese; and in that case the USAF would not be in offensive, but on
defensive right from the start, flying from airfields that are thousands of
kms away from the battlefield. The USN could bring a carrier or two (even
more... of course, several months later) but these would have underdogs on
their decks, developed to strike places not defended by hundreds of Flankers
and AWACS....

Hm, perhaps you are right: the ROCAF would fight for US air superiority...
Obviously, there is no need for either the USAF or the USN to push for
additional developments in the air-to-air arena...


Kevin,
Let's see, the first F/A-22's have already entered into their operational
test and eval phase, and the 1st TFW is scheduled to get their first birds
in the 2005-06 timeframe IIRC. The PLAAF has, from what I have seen on the
sinodefence.com site, some 120 total Su-27/30 variants in service now (out
of a total of some 175 on order) from Russia and some 200 in the
construction pipeline in the PRC, and indicates that it is expected some
48
aircraft will be added to the 120 number in service by 2006--it would
appear
that your timeline may be a little off, unless you think all of those 200
or
so domestic production examples will be completed over the next year or
two
(and then they's still have to order another 25 or so Russian built
aircraft
just to meet your four hundred figure, much less acheive "over 400").

The following figures are from Chinese-language sources and as of 1 March
2004. They detail the number of aircraft in service, location and
assignement of Flankers in the PLAAF (and I hope you know that J-11 is the
Chinese designation for Su-27SKs, and that an increasing number of these is
meanwhile upgraded with new avionics package - foremost radars and
nav/attack systems).

- 1st Anshan MR, base: Shenyang, 1st AR: 26 J-11
- 2nd Suixi MR, base: Guangzhou, 4th AR: 26 Su-27
- 3rd Wuhu MR, base: Nanjing, 9th AR: 26 Su-30
- 6th Yingchaun MR, base: Lanzhou, 16 or 18 AR and 139 AR: 26 J-11 (and
increasing)
- 7th Beijing MR, base: near Beijing, 19/20/21 ARs: 26 J-11 (and increasing:
planned to become 78 by the end of 2005)
- 18th Changsha MR, base: Guangzhou, 54th AR: 26 Su-30
- 19th Zhengzhou MR, base: Jinan 55/56/or 58 AR: 26 Su-27 (and increasing:
planned to become 78 by the end of 2005)
- 29th Quzhou MR, base: Nanjing 85/86 or 87 AR: 26 Su-27 (and increasing:
planned to become 78 by the end of 2005)
- 33rd Chongqing MR, base: Chengdu 97th AR: 38 Su-27
- 6th Naval MR, base: Dachang (Shanghai)16 or 17 AR: 18 Su-30 (and
increasing: planned to become over 36 by the end of 2005)
- Flight Test Center, Cangchou MR, Beijing: 18 Su-30

In total, the numbers should currently be as follows:
- J-11: 80 at present, no additional orders: all are going to be converted
to J-11A
- J-11A: 20+ at present, 80 J-11s to be converted, for an eventual total of
100
- Su-30MKK: 60+ at present, +20-30 additional airframes delivered per year
on average, for an eventual total of 80+ (at least) by the end of 2005
- Su-30MK2: 20+ at present, at least 20 are on order, for an eventual total
of 40+ (at least) by the end of 2005
- Su-27SK: 50 at present
- Su-27UBK: 40 at present, 20 on order, for an eventual total of 60 by the
end of 2005

That's a total of 270 airframes in service and 140 on order, for a total of
430 by the end of 2005 - if China indeed discontinues the production of the
J-11.

Duh, sorry, but it appears I was actually wrong: the numbers are even higher
than I originally stated....

What?! You actually think they are going to field that number of J-10's
and
FC-1/JF-17's over the next couple of years? Holy crap, Batman--the FC-1
just
had its maiden rollout last year (and is intended to meet export market
requirements--no indication yet it will enter into PLAAF service)!

There is a similar problem here like in the case of the F-22: what is
reported is long since not current. The plane has obviously flown earlier
(perhaps only "few months" earlier than reported, but nevertheless), then it
was not only flown by Pakistani pilots already in 2003 (reports in the
specialized press indicate it was flown by the Pakistanis for the first time
only in April this year), but also by Iranians (in October last year).
Consequently, they are ahead of what it appears they are. BTW, the PLAAF
very much plans to have the JF-17 in service. For example a total of eight
should enter service by 2006 (remaining planes from the first batch are to
reach Pakistan by June or July that year) and three times this number should
form the first regiment one year later.

So, if we do not count J-10s, and China discontinues purchasing Su-27/30s
from Russia after those currently ordered are delivered by the end of the
next year (which is not only unlikely, but - according to Russian reports -
the PLAAF and the PLANAF want to acquire around 700 Flankers by 2007 or
2008), there are going to be a total of 430 Su-27/30s, 20+ JF-17s, and over
200 J-8II and (I forgot to mention them earlier JH-7s alone in service
by - let's say - 2007. That's a total of 650 fighters, most of which are
going to be compatible with the R-77, but a large number of which is going
to be armed with even better stuff of Chinese design (and not to talk about
all the Kh-31s, Kh-58s etc.).

ROCAF is by the time still going to have a fleet of roughly 200 F-16s and
Mirage 2000s, and the USAF is not going to have more than two squadrons of
F-15s at Okinawa, plus four USN Hornet squadrons and four USMC Hornet units
_in Japan_ (i.e. also thousands of kms away), for a total of 36 USAF and 96
USN/USMC fighters - "somewhere in the area". Oh, yes, and 20.000km+ away, in
CONUS, the 1st TFW is going to have something like 25 F-22s....

Hell, I'm really talking about very unrealistic things: this all are pure
dreams. Please, disregard my nonsence then you obviously need to feel better
by bashing me at any opportunity.


The J-10
has been a pretty slow program--last I heard they were still dicking
around
with which engine to mount in it, and there is some doubt as to whether or
not it will *ever* enter into major frontline service with either PLAN or
PLAAF units in anything other than nominal numbers.

I see you are first-class informed about the current condition of the J-10
Project, so I'm not going to disturb you with any such nonsence like citing
reports about acceleration of the J-10-production - from April this year.

That statement is even more preposterous than your assertion that the USN
is
involved in redefining the air-to-air arena to support fielding of the
F/A-22.

That's your own construction: feel free to continue developing it even
further.

That you have chosen to completely disregard the contribution of the ROCAF
may be convenient for your agenda, but it is a ludicrous oversight.

I only asked if the ROCAF is now to fight for the air superiority for the
USAF and the USN. You have my most humble apology if that was wrong to do.

In an environment where nothing short of at least a 1:6 exchange
ratio would be needed, but where anything beyond 1:3 is actually
unlikely
(at least according to calculations based on current data), not a very
brilliant prospect.

If the aforementioned numbers are representative of your "data", then
excuse
me for not buying into the validity of your assertion (which also
discounts
PLAAF losses due to ADA, SAM, and interdiction efforts, I presume).

Yeah! Hell, the Su-27/30 family has such a minimal combat range and
endurance, and China is not in a position to pick up the time of the fight.
For this alone - but especially because I am so obviously anti-US - it must
be that most of them are going to be destroyed in interdiction efforts or -
especially - shot down by SAMs.... ;-)))

But OK; feel yourself as "winners": obviously warning about such matters
is
considered here as "anti-US", so I guess somebody has first to hit the
wall
head-on... (it wouldn't be the first time, but at least that functions
for
sure).

You have to be able to present a credible case--you have fallen far short
thus far. Merely playing Chicken Little, without a decent set of
supporting
data, is not going to get you too far.

Consequently, I do not understand why are you still so upset? You are doing
so well: all my "data" is wrong, because I am a Chicken Little, and cannot
support it. I contradict myself all the time, express myself so that nobody
can understand it, and - most important of all, obviously - I am so much
anti-US that I must be wrong all the way - and you MUST be right (if for no
other reason then because of my signature). ;-))))


Tom Cooper
Freelance Aviation Journalist & Historian
Vienna, Austria

*************************************************

Author:
Iran-Iraq War in the Air, 1980-1988:
http://www.acig.org/pg1/content.php

Iranian F-14 Tomcat Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S7875

Iranian F-4 Phantom II Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S6585

African MiGs
http://www.acig.org/afmig/

Arab MiG-19 & MiG-21 Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...=S6550~ser=COM

*************************************************

"Tom Cooper" wrote in message
...
Pete,

No, they should be fighting for their own territory. Unless you think
the
USAF and USN should be able to go it alone, everywhere around the globe
at
the same time.

Well, from the way the USAF runs specific operations in the last 15 years,
it appears that there is no chance of anything else happening.

The problem is this: the USA have an obligation to defend Taiwan (except
some US admin finds this is 0 and void), and they have a treaty with Japan
and South Korea. But, there is no way the USA to hit China first.
Consequently the first blow in such a scenario would obviously be
delivered
by the Chinese; and in that case the USAF would not be in offensive, but
on
defensive right from the start, flying from airfields that are thousands
of
kms away from the battlefield.

In such a situation the fighter aircraft of the USAF would be flying from
bases
in Taiwan

The USN could bring a carrier or two (even
more... of course, several months later) but these would have underdogs on
their decks, developed to strike places not defended by hundreds of
Flankers
and AWACS....


The Chinese dont have hundreds of Flankers or a fully
specified AWACS. They have purchased around 120
Su-27 and SU-3x aircraft. Assuming normal training
and serviceability requirements this equates to less
than 80 front line aircraft. They can field another
couple of hundred indigienously produced 3rd
generation fighters but the vast majority of their
air force consist of obsolete Mi17/19/21 clones

The PLAF has been boasting about acquiring
hundreds of front line aircraft for years but
the reality is that the real world acquisition
has been considerably below claimed targets.

As for strikes against Chinese targets, thats
what stand off and cruise missiles are for.

Keith




----== Posted via Newsfeed.Com - Unlimited-Uncensored-Secure Usenet News==----
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"Keith Willshaw" wrote in message
...

In such a situation the fighter aircraft of the USAF would be flying from
bases in Taiwan

Mmh, I guess that would be badly needed: the question of using airfields
that would be under almost permanent threat of IRBM and other kind of
attacks is another one, of course...

The Chinese dont have hundreds of Flankers or a fully
specified AWACS. They have purchased around 120
Su-27 and SU-3x aircraft. Assuming normal training
and serviceability requirements this equates to less
than 80 front line aircraft. They can field another
couple of hundred indigienously produced 3rd
generation fighters but the vast majority of their
air force consist of obsolete Mi17/19/21 clones

The PLAF has been boasting about acquiring
hundreds of front line aircraft for years but
the reality is that the real world acquisition
has been considerably below claimed targets.

As for strikes against Chinese targets, thats
what stand off and cruise missiles are for.

Keith,
the figures for the numbers of Su-27/30s in China I posted above come from
people who know much more about the PLAAF/PLANAF and the production of
Flankers than we both are to learn in our life-time. So, please excuse me if
I refuse to take seriously a statement that only something like 80 Flankers
are in the Chinese front-line service, especially at the time they have ten
operational and two regiments in the process of acquiring different
versions.

BTW, most of PLAAF MiG-17s and MiG-19s are long since gone. We're not
talking here about a Mao-times air force that couldn't get anything else.
It's perhaps these two types of which only "80 front-line aircraft" are
remaining in service: the PLAAF Is otherwise downsizing and massively
modernizing - and that since years. Believing, wishing or thinking a threat
away is not going to help - neither in the case of China or some other
nations, I'm affraid.

In that sence: the increasing air-to-air threat from China is only one
example, valid in the case of a clash over Taiwan. The USAF and the USN
would also be facing very advanced threats and powerful adversaries if
confronting Iran as well: except the few battles with Iraqi Mirages and
MiG-25/29s in 1991, namely, neither service has ever encountered anything
like IRIAF F-14s, armed with AIM-54s in combat (oh, and when the last USN's
F-14s are going to be retired, in 2007 or 2008, the IRIAF is going to stand
alone with the longest-ranged air-to-air missile world-wide, just for
example). Given the - pretty negative (especially in regards of the BVR -
which is quite surprising) - experiences from exercises with IAF Su-30MKIs
recently, this is also potentially not the nicest situation given the
aircraft and weapons currently at hand.

All in all, the gap is closing, and that's the main point in the whole
debate: to me it is obvious that the F-22 is more needed than many other
things.

Tom Cooper
Freelance Aviation Journalist & Historian
Vienna, Austria

*************************************************

Author:
Iran-Iraq War in the Air, 1980-1988:
http://www.acig.org/pg1/content.php

Iranian F-14 Tomcat Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S7875

Iranian F-4 Phantom II Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S6585

African MiGs
http://www.acig.org/afmig/

Arab MiG-19 & MiG-21 Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...=S6550~ser=COM

*************************************************

Tom Cooper twisted the electrons to say:
neither service has ever encountered anything like IRIAF F-14s, armed
with AIM-54s in combat

Just how many of the 79 Tomcats and 284 Pheonixs supplied to the Iranians
are still servicable though? Most people seemed pretty sure it was down
to single figures (and possibly even low single figures), however there
was that fly by of 25 Tomcats over Teheran on 11/02/85. (Of course, how
many of them where fully operational[1] is something I doubt we know!)

There also seems to be conflicting reports around as to whether the
Pheonix capability was sabotaged around about the time of the revolution
(either by departing Grumman technicians, pro-Western Iranian technicans
or even by Iranian revolutionaries who felt the Air Force was "too
western") ...

[1] Mainly meaning, with a working AWG-9 as opposed to something with the
capability of the "Blue Circle" of the early Tornado ADV days ...
--
These opinions might not even be mine ...
Let alone connected with my employer ...

"Alistair Gunn" wrote in message
. ..
Tom Cooper twisted the electrons to say:
neither service has ever encountered anything like IRIAF F-14s, armed
with AIM-54s in combat

Just how many of the 79 Tomcats and 284 Pheonixs supplied to the Iranians
are still servicable though?

Of course: none. You know, ignoring potential threats, talking and -
foremost - guessing and wishing them away functions at best: the US history
confirms this beyond any doubt - and in quite some lenght.

Most people seemed pretty sure it was down
to single figures (and possibly even low single figures), however there
was that fly by of 25 Tomcats over Teheran on 11/02/85. (Of course, how
many of them where fully operational[1] is something I doubt we know!)

How should I know? You were so kind to explain that I'm twisting electrons,
so I obviously can't answer your question without doing the same again.

I suggest you to ask Al instead: he'll confirm you that I'm not qualified to
answer any questions at all - not to talk about such stuff - and then he'll
explain you how many F-14s are there in Iran.

There also seems to be conflicting reports around as to whether the
Pheonix capability was sabotaged around about the time of the revolution
(either by departing Grumman technicians, pro-Western Iranian technicans
or even by Iranian revolutionaries who felt the Air Force was "too
western") ...

Of course: you know, while being confinned to their living spaces in the
days while waiting some plane to fly them out of Iran for something as
laughable as threats for their life, in the winter and spring of 1979, the
US contract personnel (of course, especially "Grumman technicians"!), CIA
agents etc. - you know: everybody who wanted - could walk around the IIAF
airbases at free, and sabotage whatever they wanted to sabotage. And so they
had all the time of the world and plenty of opportunities to sabotage no
less but 77 F-14s and something like 260 remaining AIM-54s distributed on
three different airfields and (in the case of the AIM-54s) even in
underground facilities. Of course, it's a little bit funny (if not outright
silly) they sabotaged them only so that they could not use AIM-54s, even if
the AWG-9s remained intact and functional so that all the "experts" could
later report that Iranians use their F-14s as "mini-AWACS"....But, heh, who
cares about this being logical or not?

Oh, and the wolf ate Little Red Riddinghood. True story! (I've seen it on
TV)

[1] Mainly meaning, with a working AWG-9 as opposed to something with the
capability of the "Blue Circle" of the early Tornado ADV days ...

Clear stuff: how can one expect the Mullahs to know what to do with that
large chunk of titanium and other metals that the Kafirs in the West call
"F-14" (spelling?) - or something like that?

Tom Cooper
Freelance Aviation Journalist & Historian
Vienna, Austria

*************************************************

Author:
Iran-Iraq War in the Air, 1980-1988:
http://www.acig.org/pg1/content.php

Iranian F-14 Tomcat Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S7875

Iranian F-4 Phantom II Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S6585

African MiGs
http://www.acig.org/afmig/

Arab MiG-19 & MiG-21 Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...=S6550~ser=COM

*************************************************

Tom Cooper twisted the electrons to say:
"Alistair Gunn" wrote in message
. ..
Tom Cooper twisted the electrons to say:
neither service has ever encountered anything like IRIAF F-14s, armed
with AIM-54s in combat
Just how many of the 79 Tomcats and 284 Pheonixs supplied to the Iranians
are still servicable though?
Of course: none.

That was actually a serious question ... However I see it was a question
that seems to be beyond your ability to answer ...

Most people seemed pretty sure it was down
to single figures (and possibly even low single figures), however there
was that fly by of 25 Tomcats over Teheran on 11/02/85. (Of course, how
many of them where fully operational[1] is something I doubt we know!)
How should I know?

In your earlier post (MsgID: ) you
claimed "in 2007 or 2008, the IRIAF is going to stand alone with the
longest-ranged air-to-air missile world-wide" ... Clearly assuming that
you had some facts (such as current, approximate, numbers of servicable
Tomcats) to back up this statement was an error of mine ...

You were so kind to explain that I'm twisting electrons, so I obviously
can't answer your question without doing the same again.

So you object when I attribute things you said to you? shrugs Each to
their own I guess ... but if you wheren't prepared to have your words
attributed to you, why did you say them in the first place? grins

I suggest you to ask Al instead: he'll confirm you that I'm not qualified to
answer any questions at all - not to talk about such stuff - and then he'll
explain you how many F-14s are there in Iran.

Well, clearly the number of servicable Tomcats is going to be somewhere
between 79 and 0, and given they've been in service (or not, as the case
may be), including combat time, for over 20 years with only minimal spares
support at best it would seem reasonable to assume they've been subject
to at least *some* attrition.

Now given that Tom has now confessed that he has no idea how many, if
any, are still servicable does anyone else want to take a stab?

There also seems to be conflicting reports around as to whether the
Pheonix capability was sabotaged around about the time of the revolution
(either by departing Grumman technicians, pro-Western Iranian technicans
or even by Iranian revolutionaries who felt the Air Force was "too
western") ...
Oh, and the wolf ate Little Red Riddinghood. True story! (I've seen it on
TV)

Conflicting - To be in opposition; to be contradictory.

Hence, "there also seems to be conflicting reports about $THING" means
some say $THING happened others don't, or say it didn't happen ...

[1] Mainly meaning, with a working AWG-9 as opposed to something with the
capability of the "Blue Circle" of the early Tornado ADV days ...
Clear stuff: how can one expect the Mullahs to know what to do with that
large chunk of titanium and other metals that the Kafirs in the West call
"F-14" (spelling?) - or something like that?

Ah, so to your mind all 25 of those Tomcats where fully servicable in all
respects? I'd be interested as to what leads you to that conclusion,
indeed such interest was largely the reason for my original posting.
Personally I'd say that the fly-past proves they had at least 25 that
could fly (on that particular day), but it says nothing about their
capabilities wrt the AWG-9, Pheonix capability, functioning afterburners,
wing-sweep capability ... etc
--
These opinions might not even be mine ...
Let alone connected with my employer ...

We're not
talking here about a Mao-times air force that couldn't get anything else.
It's perhaps these two types of which only "80 front-line aircraft" are

Before 90s chinese RMA advocates were pretty weak but during 90, with changes
in chinese society they got a big boost and were able to develop their
ingenious concepts like Assains' Mace weapons.

Surely they have Brainpower to develop and design them (many of
scientists,cutting edge researchers here in US are imported from China)and they
have also industrial infrastructure to build them now.

As for strikes against Chinese targets, thats
what stand off and cruise missiles are for.

Well,first of all "The Chinese Threat Theory" is only a carefully invented
deception,there is no Chinese threat and there wont be any Chinese threat in
foreseable time.
But US politicians and officials could not openly discuss "The Threat Europa"
or "The Threat Japan" as it would be politically incorrect and financially
devastating even though they try to prepare US for that possibility by all
means
So,US-Chinese conflict is a purely a academic conflict
Chinese have surely Brainpower to develop post paradigm shift weapons and
judging from openly available chinese R&D efforts HPM weapons are very high in
their priority list.
So,they are not stupid and China is not a country like
Panama,Grenada,Afghanistan,Iraq etc so US will not try to attack China even if
they invade Taiwan tomorrow.
Thats the real politics.

"Tom Cooper" wrote in message
...
Pete,

No, they should be fighting for their own territory. Unless you think
the
USAF and USN should be able to go it alone, everywhere around the globe
at
the same time.

Well, from the way the USAF runs specific operations in the last 15 years,
it appears that there is no chance of anything else happening.

The problem is this: the USA have an obligation to defend Taiwan (except
some US admin finds this is 0 and void), and they have a treaty with Japan
and South Korea. But, there is no way the USA to hit China first.
Consequently the first blow in such a scenario would obviously be
delivered
by the Chinese; and in that case the USAF would not be in offensive, but
on
defensive right from the start, flying from airfields that are thousands
of
kms away from the battlefield.

Eh? You think there is some kind of rule that says, "OK, if the PRC gets in
the first blow, the USAF is NOT allowed to take the fight "downtown" back in
the PRC--no B-2 strikes against C4I targets, no cruise missile strikes
against airfields and IADS..."? Strange idea of modern combat you have
there...

The USN could bring a carrier or two (even
more... of course, several months later) but these would have underdogs on
their decks, developed to strike places not defended by hundreds of
Flankers
and AWACS....

You have yet to conclusively show where "hundreds of Flankers and AWACS"
will be a problem in the forseeable future--heck, the PRC is still awaiting
delivery of their first fully functional AWACS (the US having quashed the
Israeli plans to sell them Phalcon a few years ago).


Hm, perhaps you are right: the ROCAF would fight for US air superiority...
Obviously, there is no need for either the USAF or the USN to push for
additional developments in the air-to-air arena...

Yeah, go simplistic...*that's* gonna really make your point! The fact is
that the ROCAF is going to be fighting the PLAAF at the same time and in the
same area that this postulated US response would be occuring in--sorry you
can't seem to grasp that little fact.



Kevin,
Let's see, the first F/A-22's have already entered into their
operational
test and eval phase, and the 1st TFW is scheduled to get their first
birds
in the 2005-06 timeframe IIRC. The PLAAF has, from what I have seen on
the
sinodefence.com site, some 120 total Su-27/30 variants in service now
(out
of a total of some 175 on order) from Russia and some 200 in the
construction pipeline in the PRC, and indicates that it is expected some
48
aircraft will be added to the 120 number in service by 2006--it would
appear
that your timeline may be a little off, unless you think all of those
200
or
so domestic production examples will be completed over the next year or
two
(and then they's still have to order another 25 or so Russian built
aircraft
just to meet your four hundred figure, much less acheive "over 400").

The following figures are from Chinese-language sources and as of 1 March
2004. They detail the number of aircraft in service, location and
assignement of Flankers in the PLAAF (and I hope you know that J-11 is the
Chinese designation for Su-27SKs, and that an increasing number of these
is
meanwhile upgraded with new avionics package - foremost radars and
nav/attack systems).

- 1st Anshan MR, base: Shenyang, 1st AR: 26 J-11
- 2nd Suixi MR, base: Guangzhou, 4th AR: 26 Su-27
- 3rd Wuhu MR, base: Nanjing, 9th AR: 26 Su-30
- 6th Yingchaun MR, base: Lanzhou, 16 or 18 AR and 139 AR: 26 J-11 (and
increasing)
- 7th Beijing MR, base: near Beijing, 19/20/21 ARs: 26 J-11 (and
increasing:
planned to become 78 by the end of 2005)
- 18th Changsha MR, base: Guangzhou, 54th AR: 26 Su-30
- 19th Zhengzhou MR, base: Jinan 55/56/or 58 AR: 26 Su-27 (and increasing:
planned to become 78 by the end of 2005)
- 29th Quzhou MR, base: Nanjing 85/86 or 87 AR: 26 Su-27 (and increasing:
planned to become 78 by the end of 2005)
- 33rd Chongqing MR, base: Chengdu 97th AR: 38 Su-27
- 6th Naval MR, base: Dachang (Shanghai)16 or 17 AR: 18 Su-30 (and
increasing: planned to become over 36 by the end of 2005)
- Flight Test Center, Cangchou MR, Beijing: 18 Su-30

In total, the numbers should currently be as follows:
- J-11: 80 at present, no additional orders: all are going to be converted
to J-11A
- J-11A: 20+ at present, 80 J-11s to be converted, for an eventual total
of
100
- Su-30MKK: 60+ at present, +20-30 additional airframes delivered per year
on average, for an eventual total of 80+ (at least) by the end of 2005
- Su-30MK2: 20+ at present, at least 20 are on order, for an eventual
total
of 40+ (at least) by the end of 2005
- Su-27SK: 50 at present
- Su-27UBK: 40 at present, 20 on order, for an eventual total of 60 by the
end of 2005

That's a total of 270 airframes in service and 140 on order, for a total
of
430 by the end of 2005 - if China indeed discontinues the production of
the
J-11.

You actually expect them to complete delivery of 140 airframes over an
eighteen month period?

Your numbers vary quite widely from those reported in other sources:

www.bvalphaserver.com/article8018.html : "By 2005, PLA fourth-generation
are expected to number about 150..."

www.cdi.org/asia/fa080201.html : "Jane's Defense Weekly (11 July 2001) gives
the number of modern Chinese warplanes in the People's Liberation Air Force
(PLAAF) as less than 200: 100 Su-27 fighters (with 10 or so more added
annually) and 38 Su-30 fighter-bombers with 38 more on order from Russia."
Granted, a 2001 report--but still indicative of the fact that your numbers
are inflated.

www.watsoninstitute.org/bjwa/ archive/9.1/Essays/Nolt.pdf : (2002) "During
the past decade, China ordered 118 Su-27/30 fighters from Russia (not all
have been delivered). China has begun assembling the Su-27 from Russian
kits, about 15 so far, but "considerable quality control problems" have
delayed deliveries." Source goes on to note that over the next five years
(reaching to 2007) it is only expected that China will be able to
domestically produce about 100 advanced fighter aircraft and declares that
the PLAAF is "declining in relative capability" when compared to the USAF
due to the excessive age of the vast majority of its airframes.,

http://www.jinsa.org/articles/articl...,2360,884,2014 :
"...while the PLA has roughly 3,400 aircraft at their command, only a small
number, around 100 are deemed modern fourth- generation fighters. These
include Russian-designed Su-27 and Su-30s...The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is
dogged by personnel issues. Chinese pilots, by western standards, are ill
equipped to operate their aircraft to the fullest potential. The Pentagon's
report believes that the PLAAF will have "developed operational concepts and
the training needed to fight as an integrated force" by 2010."

http://www.uscc.gov/researchreports/...herreport.htm:
Lists total PRC purchases of Su-27/30 variants as 154 from Russia and 200
domestically produced J-11's, while noting that the production of the full
200 J-11's is in some doubt. This report, prepared for a US government
commission, is only a couple of months old.

http://www.jamestown.org/publication...ticle_id=23659 :
"The purchase of Su-27 fighters from Russia has progressed to the point
where China is assembling kits of these very capable aircraft, which now
number approximately 200 in the PLAAF. The Su-30 fighter/attack aircraft is
also rapidly being acquired by China, and more than seventy-five are
currently in its air force..." This source, which comes closest to matching
your claims, indicates the number that have entered into service as being
275; but it curiously does not reflect any operational/training losses (a
Taiwanese source indicates that during one six month period the PLAAF lost 4
Su-27's in training mishaps). Even if you accept this most optimistic
estimate of deliveries/in-service aircraft, if you apply even a minimal loss
rate (say four aircraft per *year* since the beginning of Su-27/Su-30
operations in the PRC), you would have a total loss rate of some forty
airframes--not including those that were heavily damaged in that 1998
typhoon, of which "most* were repaired and subsequently returned to service.


Duh, sorry, but it appears I was actually wrong: the numbers are even
higher
than I originally stated....

Sorry, but the picture I am getting from a number of sources indicates you
are not correct.


What?! You actually think they are going to field that number of J-10's
and
FC-1/JF-17's over the next couple of years? Holy crap, Batman--the FC-1
just
had its maiden rollout last year (and is intended to meet export market
requirements--no indication yet it will enter into PLAAF service)!

There is a similar problem here like in the case of the F-22: what is
reported is long since not current. The plane has obviously flown earlier
(perhaps only "few months" earlier than reported, but nevertheless), then
it
was not only flown by Pakistani pilots already in 2003 (reports in the
specialized press indicate it was flown by the Pakistanis for the first
time
only in April this year), but also by Iranians (in October last year).

Provide proof.

Consequently, they are ahead of what it appears they are. BTW, the PLAAF
very much plans to have the JF-17 in service. For example a total of eight
should enter service by 2006 (remaining planes from the first batch are to
reach Pakistan by June or July that year) and three times this number
should
form the first regiment one year later.

Wow! Eight?! Please show a source that states the PLAAF plans to introduce
the FC-1 into its force (preferrably in a greater number than *eight*).


So, if we do not count J-10s, and China discontinues purchasing Su-27/30s
from Russia after those currently ordered are delivered by the end of the
next year (which is not only unlikely, but - according to Russian
reports -
the PLAAF and the PLANAF want to acquire around 700 Flankers by 2007 or
2008), there are going to be a total of 430 Su-27/30s, 20+ JF-17s, and
over
200 J-8II and (I forgot to mention them earlier JH-7s alone in service
by - let's say - 2007. That's a total of 650 fighters, most of which are
going to be compatible with the R-77, but a large number of which is going
to be armed with even better stuff of Chinese design (and not to talk
about
all the Kh-31s, Kh-58s etc.).

Forget the J8--it is an anachronism. And you have yet to show where they
will have over 700 fourth generation aircraft in service by the time the
F/A-22 enters into operational service next year; in fact, your quick
backpeddle on the alleged 300 J-10 and FC-1's entering into service by that
time period kind of puts your allegation to rest, with a stake in its
proverbial heart. Lots of sources indicate the current total force of
Su-27/30's in service does not exceed 150 aircraft at present, and you have
not shown any source that indicates otherwise. Nor have you accounted for
training/operational losses since they started flying the Sukhois (and that
may well indeed account for the difference between 150 and the total number
of Sukhois/J-11's thus far delivered).


ROCAF is by the time still going to have a fleet of roughly 200 F-16s and
Mirage 2000s, and the USAF is not going to have more than two squadrons of
F-15s at Okinawa, plus four USN Hornet squadrons and four USMC Hornet
units
_in Japan_ (i.e. also thousands of kms away), for a total of 36 USAF and
96
USN/USMC fighters - "somewhere in the area". Oh, yes, and 20.000km+ away,
in
CONUS, the 1st TFW is going to have something like 25 F-22s....

Last I knew, F-15 squadrons were still flying between 20 and 24 aircraft,
except those in the ANG. And I guess your view is that we are bounf by some
kind of "can't reinforce" clause, which presumably goes along with that
whole "US has to fight defensively if the PRC strikes first" idea you
postulated earlier? What about the F-16's as Misawa--they can't forward
deploy? Nor can the F-15's from Alaska? There would be a prohibition of USAF
assets heading into ROCAF sites? The B-1B's and/or B-52's sitting on Guam
can't play? Kind of convenient scenario you have set out for yourself
there...


Hell, I'm really talking about very unrealistic things: this all are pure
dreams. Please, disregard my nonsence then you obviously need to feel
better
by bashing me at any opportunity.

Finally, you recognize that you are spluttering a bunch of nonsense...



The J-10
has been a pretty slow program--last I heard they were still dicking
around
with which engine to mount in it, and there is some doubt as to whether
or
not it will *ever* enter into major frontline service with either PLAN
or
PLAAF units in anything other than nominal numbers.

I see you are first-class informed about the current condition of the J-10
Project, so I'm not going to disturb you with any such nonsence like
citing
reports about acceleration of the J-10-production - from April this year.


Please show where this "accelerated production" is going to yield 300
aircraft by next year.

That statement is even more preposterous than your assertion that the
USN
is
involved in redefining the air-to-air arena to support fielding of the
F/A-22.

That's your own construction: feel free to continue developing it even
further.

YOUR words: "The USAF and the USN are just re-inventing air-to-air, after
they realized
that the F-22 might otherwise get cancelled..." Note the use of "and", and
"they".


That you have chosen to completely disregard the contribution of the
ROCAF
may be convenient for your agenda, but it is a ludicrous oversight.

I only asked if the ROCAF is now to fight for the air superiority for the
USAF and the USN. You have my most humble apology if that was wrong to do.

Stupid question.


In an environment where nothing short of at least a 1:6 exchange
ratio would be needed, but where anything beyond 1:3 is actually
unlikely
(at least according to calculations based on current data), not a very
brilliant prospect.

If the aforementioned numbers are representative of your "data", then
excuse
me for not buying into the validity of your assertion (which also
discounts
PLAAF losses due to ADA, SAM, and interdiction efforts, I presume).

Yeah! Hell, the Su-27/30 family has such a minimal combat range and
endurance, and China is not in a position to pick up the time of the
fight.

With all of those AWACS platforms...they still don't have, right?

For this alone - but especially because I am so obviously anti-US - it
must
be that most of them are going to be destroyed in interdiction efforts
or -
especially - shot down by SAMs.... ;-)))

SAM's will undoubtedly account for some of them, if they want to press the
fight. EW is not exactly the prime forte of the PLAAF, now is it?


But OK; feel yourself as "winners": obviously warning about such
matters
is
considered here as "anti-US", so I guess somebody has first to hit the
wall
head-on... (it wouldn't be the first time, but at least that functions
for
sure).

You have to be able to present a credible case--you have fallen far
short
thus far. Merely playing Chicken Little, without a decent set of
supporting
data, is not going to get you too far.

Consequently, I do not understand why are you still so upset? You are
doing
so well: all my "data" is wrong, because I am a Chicken Little, and cannot
support it. I contradict myself all the time, express myself so that
nobody
can understand it, and - most important of all, obviously - I am so much
anti-US that I must be wrong all the way - and you MUST be right (if for
no
other reason then because of my signature). ;-))))

I am not upset--I just don't approve of your taking half-baked figures,
tossing in unrealistic assumptions, and then labeling them as "fact". You
said they'd have 700 plus fourth generation aircraft in service by the time
the F/A-22 enters into service--but you have yet to show where that is
anywhere near possible.

Brooks



Tom Cooper