"Henry J Cobb" wrote in message

snipped for brevity

The only early warning system Hawaii had (besides the overlooked radar)
weren't on patrol, instead they were doing ASW exercises.

ASW was a valid mission and practice would be A Good Thing.

Applying VP-21's numbers we get 51 planes required to do a 360° search
to 450 miles so just 20 planes in the air could have done a search
beyond the strike radius of any Japanese carrier based aircraft.

Well, no.

First off, setting up an air plan for surface search with multiple aircraft
is a complex enterprise. The effective area of coverage for visual search
is highly dependant upon environmental conditions. This does not mean you
don't do it, only that it's not something you "just do."

Second, the only air-surface detection system on any patrol aircraft at that
time was the Mark I Eyeball. A fine device during daylight, but of limited
utility at night or in less than fine VMC conditions. Since the Japanese
force approached within strike range during the night then the only
detection opportunities might have been at dusk the night before (but at the
extreme range of the search) or at dawn as they were launching. Having
spent a lot of hours doing open ocean visual search I can assure you that
neither time is optimal.

Third, your program would have been a MAXEFFORT thing. Sure it can be done,
but it consumes aircraft and crews. So if you are going to run hard you
must have something to run for. No one KNEW the location of the Japanese
fleet. There was a bunch of speculation, but no one KNEW. Consuming your
fuel and spares under those circumstances would not have been a wise
military decision.

With the aid of hindsight (which is always 20/20) a high intensity air plan
starting on Friday, December 5, 1941 would have been a wise plan (even if it
didn't work). But with the information at hand there was no justification
for such an effort.

Bill Kambic
CDR, USNR(Ret)
VS-27, VS-30, VS-73, VP 93, FASOTRAGRULANT