Sell your sailplane before 2030

Bruce Hoult wrote on 7/20/2015 2:38 PM:
On Monday, July 20, 2015 at 4:08:21 PM UTC+12, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Bruce Hoult wrote on 7/16/2015 9:38 PM:
On Tuesday, July 14, 2015 at 9:50:38 AM UTC+12, Martin Gregorie
wrote:
On Mon, 13 Jul 2015 14:09:42 -0700, David Hirst wrote:

A huge reduction in solar output is predicted to occur by
then.

Thankfully, they mean sunspot activity, not heat output,
though the lack of sunspots will likely cause some noticeable
weather changes.
(http://www.space.com/19280-solar-act...h-climate.html)



There may well be a connection: the Maunder Minimum, when there
were very few sunspots from 1645 to about 1715, coincided with
the middle part of the Little Ice Age (1350 to about 1850),
during which Europe and North America experienced very cold
winters. However, as AFAIK there was no good understanding of
either IR or UV radiation during the Maunder Minimum nor any
reliable means of measuring the amount of solar energy reaching
the Earth, any association between the two events is at best
supposition, but should it happen again we are now well enough
instrumented to discover what, if any, mechanism connects the
two.

The theorized mechanism is fewer sunspots - less solar wind -
more cosmic rays reaching earth - more nucleation of aerosols -
more clouds - higher reflectivity - more energy radiation into
space - lower temperatures.

The key link in this chain (more cosmic rays - more nucleation
of aerosols) has been experimentally verified at CERN.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_...imat e_change



IPCC reports state that cloud reflectivity and proportion of cloud
cover is one of the most important and yet least understood
aspects of the global climate system.

"While the link between cosmic rays and cloud cover is yet to be
confirmed, more importantly, there has been no correlation between
cosmic rays and global temperatures over the last 30 years of
global warming. In fact, in recent years when cosmic rays should
have been having their largest cooling effect on record,
temperatures have been at their highest on record."

http://www.skepticalscience.com/cosm...termediate.htm


That's an awfully ignorant argument.

Heating and cooling effects accumulate. June 21 has the most sunlight
(in the Northern Hemisphere) descreasing after that, but it's usually
far before the hottest days in July and August.

It is mathematically natural that at the end of a period of
increasing temperatures you'll have a period of temperatures that are
flat but at or near the maximum.

Failing to take account of the trend and notice that temperatures
have ceased to increase, and simply continue to beat on the
undeniable (and not denied) fact that temperatures are "the highest
ever" is either mathematical ignorance or deception.

"Awfully ignorant" - Are you referring to the quote, or the entire
article I linked to?

In fact, the global temperatures have continued to increase at about the
same rate as the last few decades - no pause, no flattening. From NOAA:

"Our new analysis suggests that the apparent hiatus may have been
largely the result of limitations in past datasets, and that the rate of
warming over the first 15 years of this century has, in fact, been as
fast or faster than that seen over the last half of the 20th century."

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...ent-years.html

Even under the old analysis, the temperature continued to climb, but not
as rapidly as the previous decades.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to
email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"

https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1
- "Transponders in Sailplanes - Dec 2014a" also ADS-B, PCAS, Flarm

http://soaringsafety.org/prevention/...anes-2014A.pdf