Gliding risk....

Thanks Chip for the very thoughtful, honest and well written post, as well as the link to Bruce’s article. I needed to read this. Going forward I am going to try to keep track of how many holes left ahead of me in my Swiss cheese and not get too close to the last hole.

Ramy

On Tuesday, November 5, 2019 at 11:56:36 PM UTC-5, Ramy wrote:
Going forward I am going to try to keep track of how many holes left ahead of me in my Swiss cheese and not get too close to the last hole.

My $0.02: I think that is /exactly/ the way that experienced guys like Bruce get into trouble. What's missing from that article: a determination to have a specific landing option that one can glide to, /especially/ in tiger country. This is basic XC stuff. Risk management means breaking the chain of events that lead to an accident or scary situation early. You accept the cost of a slow climb, detour (for weather, landability, etc.) and get on with your day.

Accidents and bad scares we've had in my club have been 80% due to inadequate XC risk management. Most of that 80% consists of lower experience guys misunderstanding how the more experienced guys do this (i.e. with discipline).

T8

I think the dilemma each cross country and contest pilot has to deal with every now and then is how much lowering the margins is acceptable. Whether we willing to admit it or not, we all lowering our margins and increasing risk every now and then to prevent a guaranteed landout. I believe this what happened to Bruce. When everything goes great and we cruise at 17K we don’t need to track landout options since there are plenty in glide , even in the western deserts. As we get lower we start tracking landout options along the intended course line. As we get further lower we start picking the best landout option. The real problem start when we finding enough lift or indication of lift further ahead and need to decide between staying within safe glide of the last good option we just past in dead air and pretty much guarantee a landout and possible a long painful retrieve, or keep pushing into what we believe is better air while lowering the margin or switching over to some unknown and potential problematic fields, but under nice looking Cu/ circling birds/ gliders/dust devil etc. So while we increase the risk of damage or difficult retrieve, we reduce the chance of landout as we heading into lift. Most of the time this works but once in a while it doesn’t. The hard limit in my opinion is to always have in glide at least something that looks reasonably landable and preferably in the database, while trying to never get to a situation in which a low save will not just save your flight but will also save your life. don’t get into a tunnel vision where the only option you can think of is keep going into the unknown hoping you’ll find something better. We actually had a webinar on this subject recently.

Ramy

On Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 6:40:32 PM UTC-5, Ramy wrote:
I think the dilemma each cross country and contest pilot has to deal with every now and then is how much lowering the margins is acceptable. Whether we willing to admit it or not, we all lowering our margins and increasing risk every now and then to prevent a guaranteed landout. I believe this what happened to Bruce. When everything goes great and we cruise at 17K we don’t need to track landout options since there are plenty in glide , even in the western deserts. As we get lower we start tracking landout options along the intended course line. As we get further lower we start picking the best landout option. The real problem start when we finding enough lift or indication of lift further ahead and need to decide between staying within safe glide of the last good option we just past in dead air and pretty much guarantee a landout and possible a long painful retrieve, or keep pushing into what we believe is better air while lowering the margin or switching over to some unknown and potential problematic fields, but under nice looking Cu/ circling birds/ gliders/dust devil etc. So while we increase the risk of damage or difficult retrieve, we reduce the chance of landout as we heading into lift. Most of the time this works but once in a while it doesn’t. The hard limit in my opinion is to always have in glide at least something that looks reasonably landable and preferably in the database, while trying to never get to a situation in which a low save will not just save your flight but will also save your life. don’t get into a tunnel vision where the only option you can think of is keep going into the unknown hoping you’ll find something better. We actually had a webinar on this subject recently.

Ramy

I have observed that, over time, people dip into the margins they were taught. They become comfortable with the new lower margin.
Then they slip a bit more.
Eventually they either figure out they are going too far, somebody calls them out, or they scare themselves or even crash.
I regularly observe contest pilots flying low patterns. If I see a pilot doing this regularly, I know too low is their normal. I'll have a talk and explain what I'm seeing and why I'm concerned. Without exception they are appreciative of my taking the time to raise a warning flag. Most can later be seen to be flying more safely. Over the years, two did not take the suggestion to heart and had low pattern accidents. My success rate so far is about 90%.
I've also called pilots circling low and asked them to give up and land. I have offered to buy their next tow.
Peer pressure and constructive intervention can be a useful safety tool.
FWIW
UH

On Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 7:06:04 PM UTC-5, wrote:
I have observed that, over time, people dip into the margins they were taught.
They become comfortable with the new lower margin.
Then they slip a bit more.

Yep, "normalization of deviance".
We lost a space shuttle this way.

Eventually they either figure out they are going too far,
somebody calls them out, or they scare themselves or even crash.

Or worse, they don't scare themselves, become "experts",
and encourage others to lower their margins. Then call them wimps
if they don't.

Thanks Hank!