Put your money where the risk is

On Monday, November 18, 2019 at 10:40:24 PM UTC-8, Ramy wrote:
Funny how you get to the opposite conclusions. Are we talking about the same sport? Anyway, I did my own analysis and almost all fatal accidents are inconclusive, mostly speculation, while almost all non fatal accidents are conclusive (since they all have witness).
Anyway, I’ll bow out now.

Ramy

Ramy,

I reviewed, again, all of the 2019 fatal accidents. One sounds like a medical emergency suffered upon a successful outlanding, all of the others were clear loss of control of a functioning glider. One guy hit the only tree in a field during an outlanding.

Tom

Tom,

Check 2018. I researched a little more about those and personally knew 3 of the victims.

Ramy

On Wednesday, November 20, 2019 at 8:34:52 PM UTC-8, Ramy wrote:
Tom,

Check 2018. I researched a little more about those and personally knew 3 of the victims.

Ramy

Ramy,

I reviewed all of the 2018 fatal accidents listed by the NTSB:
https://www.ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.a...6-ea42dfd47c36

The majority were clearly bad airmanship, but a couple are more curious. Two involved commercial flights that were CFITs (controlled flight into terrain), and totally avoidable. One of the curious ones involved pilots I am sure you knew, the Duo Discus that crashed on Slide Mtn. It did several very tight loops until it broke up. I find it hard to believe that was intentional, so why did it happen? I have never heard of an elevator jamming in the full up position, and the Duo is automatic hookup, so that wasn't the cause.. The only thing that makes sense to me is a medical emergency with the pilot flying, causing him to pull full aft on the stick, but we will probably never know.

The other was an in-flight breakup of an IS29D. This glider was thoroughly inspected by several pilots, one of which was an A&P, who was flying. Did he over-stress the glider, or did it have an undetected flaw? We will have to await a final report for any more information.

A full review of all these accidents is at the SSF website:
https://www.soaringsafety.org/accide...ual_report.doc

The bottom line is ****-poor airmanship still is THE primary cause of glider fatal accidents.

Tom

Regarding chances of having a locked “full up� elevator situation, my brother did experience just that. He was involved in a gaggle midair over Cal City during a regional. He was flying the then new to racing Ventus A model. His elevator was impacted by the wing of the other glider which resulted in having an elevator jamming in full up deflection. His ship did a series of three high speed loops before he was able to kick the canopy away and get out. He was under pretty high g’s as he told me he could barely move and had real limited eyesight. He was lucky to barely have had enough altitude for his chute to open. The ship now sans-pilot continued to loop itself right down to the ground. She landed herself in the sagebrush ending up with a broken tail boom, semi destroyed elevator and crumped control rod/linkages, and dented fuselage but no noticeable wing damage from the pilot-empty landing.

Regarding that duo discus accident, there is a definite mystery there, I do not think they found any control surface related issues in the investigation. but any way you slice it, be it two guys stunting, two guys fighting each other for control, one guy thinking the other guy has control and doing nothing, one guy having a medically related episode, etc, its another example of another needless accident.

Tom,this is why I asked for your definition of airmanship. If it is both stick and rudder skills and judgment then all that is left is mechanical failure and hand of god. It makes sence to me that the last two are small contributors. If we asume our skills are superior and will keep us out of trouble, how do we explain the "**** poor airmanship" of highly skilled contest pilots how have been killed. To me is seems to be erosion of margins. Over time we get more bold, get away with it time and time again until it becomes the new normal. In my effort to keep from being a stistic, I try to reset my margins from time to time.

I have known 3 pilots that have hit trees on the ridge. All resulted in minor damage and flew on. 2 of the 3 were excellent pilots, one a world record holder. All fly a little higher off the ridge now. And without hitting a tree, so do I...

There's a pretty good discussion of airmanship he
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airmanship

On 11/24/2019 7:05 AM, RR wrote:
Tom,this is why I asked for your definition of airmanship. If it is both stick and rudder skills and judgment then all that is left is mechanical failure and hand of god. It makes sence to me that the last two are small contributors. If we asume our skills are superior and will keep us out of trouble, how do we explain the "**** poor airmanship" of highly skilled contest pilots how have been killed. To me is seems to be erosion of margins. Over time we get more bold, get away with it time and time again until it becomes the new normal. In my effort to keep from being a stistic, I try to reset my margins from time to time.

I have known 3 pilots that have hit trees on the ridge. All resulted in minor damage and flew on. 2 of the 3 were excellent pilots, one a world record holder. All fly a little higher off the ridge now. And without hitting a tree, so do I...

--
Dan, 5J

On Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 6:05:37 AM UTC-8, RR wrote:
Tom,this is why I asked for your definition of airmanship. If it is both stick and rudder skills and judgment then all that is left is mechanical failure and hand of god. It makes sence to me that the last two are small contributors. If we asume our skills are superior and will keep us out of trouble, how do we explain the "**** poor airmanship" of highly skilled contest pilots how have been killed. To me is seems to be erosion of margins. Over time we get more bold, get away with it time and time again until it becomes the new normal. In my effort to keep from being a stistic, I try to reset my margins from time to time.

I have known 3 pilots that have hit trees on the ridge. All resulted in minor damage and flew on. 2 of the 3 were excellent pilots, one a world record holder. All fly a little higher off the ridge now. And without hitting a tree, so do I...

RR,

Being a highly skilled contest pilot does not make you immune from a momentary lapse, and that is all that it takes if it happens at exactly the wrong time. Flying too close to the trees on a ridge and hitting them is also known as a CFIT, and CFIT is likely the best example of ****-poor airmanship as it is totally preventable.

I am not a holier than thou type - it's happened to me, but I was lucky enough to have survived, twice. One was when I failed to hookup my elevator on an ASW19, the other where I botched the engine restart of a DG400 and landed in a plowed field with the engine extended.

In general, I fly with pretty wide safety margins, especially concerning weather. Thunderstorms are a very real possibility where I do most of my flying, and airports are few and far between. So the decision to fly or not is critical. I regularly repeat a very simple axiom to fellow pilots, "I would rather be down here wishing I was up there, than be up there wishing I was down here."

Tom

On Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 9:05:37 AM UTC-5, RR wrote:
Tom,this is why I asked for your definition of airmanship. If it is both stick and rudder skills and judgment then all that is left is mechanical failure and hand of god. It makes sence to me that the last two are small contributors. If we asume our skills are superior and will keep us out of trouble, how do we explain the "**** poor airmanship" of highly skilled contest pilots how have been killed. To me is seems to be erosion of margins. Over time we get more bold, get away with it time and time again until it becomes the new normal. In my effort to keep from being a stistic, I try to reset my margins from time to time.

I have known 3 pilots that have hit trees on the ridge. All resulted in minor damage and flew on. 2 of the 3 were excellent pilots, one a world record holder. All fly a little higher off the ridge now. And without hitting a tree, so do I...

Not about Soaring but relevant safety talk to RR's point of resetting normal margins. Language NSFW. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2O-Dpw0Yfc&t=674s

Tom, indeed the curious ones in which we don’t understand how those accidents could have happen to experience pilots are the ones I referred to.
I don’t think you can call those poor airmanship. I think many accidents are due to “momentarily laps of judgment� due to “tunnel vision� which is a human flaw and not necessarily poor airmanship. I am afraid we will continue having similar accidents statistics no matter what we do since we are humans participating in an unforgiving activity.

Ramy

On Wednesday, November 27, 2019 at 2:39:57 AM UTC-5, Ramy wrote:
Tom, indeed the curious ones in which we don’t understand how those accidents could have happen to experience pilots are the ones I referred to.
I don’t think you can call those poor airmanship. I think many accidents are due to “momentarily laps of judgment� due to “tunnel vision� which is a human flaw and not necessarily poor airmanship. I am afraid we will continue having similar accidents statistics no matter what we do since we are humans participating in an unforgiving activity.

Ramy

What about tunnel vision or "momentary lapses of judgement" isn't poor airmanship?

T8