Gliding risk....

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

In the three weeks since I completed the analysis that started this conversation, I have reviewed and interpreted over 250 glider accidents to try to find out why accidents really happen, how many of them are avoidable, and what each of us can to to prevent them. I've certainly learned some important lessons for my own flying in the process. I hope some of you will find it useful as well. Please read it with an open mind. Here's the link:

https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/

On Thursday, November 21, 2019 at 9:44:45 PM UTC-6, Clemens Ceipek wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

In the three weeks since I completed the analysis that started this conversation, I have reviewed and interpreted over 250 glider accidents to try to find out why accidents really happen, how many of them are avoidable, and what each of us can to to prevent them. I've certainly learned some important lessons for my own flying in the process. I hope some of you will find it useful as well. Please read it with an open mind. Here's the link:

https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/

Wow, what a read! Is this some kind of a degree thesis? No kidding, I'm going to make a booklet of it for myself as a 'must read' before every new season. Thanks! One thing I would add (it is there between the lines, I believe, but could be stated more explicitly - and I was taught it in the soaring ground school): most accidents are a result not of a single event/decision/circumstance/situation but rather of a chain of them; that chain has to be broken as soon as possible, or the options will be fewer and fewer, down to none.

On Thursday, November 21, 2019 at 7:44:45 PM UTC-8, Clemens Ceipek wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

In the three weeks since I completed the analysis that started this conversation, I have reviewed and interpreted over 250 glider accidents to try to find out why accidents really happen, how many of them are avoidable, and what each of us can to to prevent them. I've certainly learned some important lessons for my own flying in the process. I hope some of you will find it useful as well. Please read it with an open mind. Here's the link:

https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/

Kudos for doing the best glider accident analysis that I have ever seen - and that includes the efforts by the Soaring Safety Foundation. Looking critically at the causes of accidents is vital to improving our safety record. I, personally, have been vilified here when I bring up safety issues. This reveals a mentality that is antagonistic, or at least ambivalent, towards safety issues.

Tom

On Thursday, November 21, 2019 at 10:44:45 PM UTC-5, Clemens Ceipek wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....
https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/
https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/

Thanks Clemens, a great piece of work.
Probably you've seen this already, but another important factor
is herd mentality, following another pilot, and not just in contests.
Some examples:
http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_...g_May_1987.pdf

Thanks again,
Best Regards, Dave

Dave - thank you for sharing that article. I had not seen it before. It is super insightful and remains very relevant! It is very possible that some of the pilots who crashed due to "fateful decisions /eroded margins" had been following someone else before they crashed and this just wasn't mentioned in the accident report. (I have done that a few times in multi-player races on Condor and learned that way that it's never a good idea to assume that the pilot ahead knows what they are doing. In real life I have so far resisted the temptation considering differences in experience/skill level, equipment, and risk attitude. I want to keep it that way - especially as I will be flying in my first real-life contests next year.)

Tom BravoMike - yes, I could have been more explicit in mentioning that accidents are often a the result of a chain of decisions or events. Classifying them one way or another obviously required me to pick one moment in that chain. I tried to identify the one point from where the accident became probably no longer avoidable. (e.g. consider the many cases where pilots delayed a decision to land. Many of them are officially reported as stall/spins or failure to maintain a sufficient airspeed/or ground clearance. I reported them as "delayed decision to land" because that's what set off the chain of events that ultimately resulted in the accident.) If you read Dave's article, it provides several great examples for exactly those types of situations and in most cases I found it not very difficult to identify the point after which the accident could have only been prevented by sheer luck.

Clemens

On 11/21/2019 8:44 PM, Clemens Ceipek wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6,
wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

In the three weeks since I completed the analysis that started this
conversation, I have reviewed and interpreted over 250 glider accidents to
try to find out why accidents really happen, how many of them are
avoidable, and what each of us can to to prevent them. I've certainly
learned some important lessons for my own flying in the process. I hope
some of you will find it useful as well. Please read it with an open mind.
Here's the link:

https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/

Seriously Excellent Stuff, Clemens! Thanks for taking time to research,
analyze and share it.

My short-form assessment? How a person thinks *does* matter!

Bob W.

On Thursday, November 21, 2019 at 7:44:45 PM UTC-8, Clemens th wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

In the three weeks since I completed the analysis that started this conversation, I have reviewed and interpreted over 250 glider accidents to try to find out why accidents really happen, how many of them are avoidable, and what each of us can to to prevent them. I've certainly learned some important lessons for my own flying in the process. I hope some of you will find it useful as well. Please read it with an open mind. Here's the link:

https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/

Clemens,

This is such a thoughtful, thorough, and practical analysis of glider accidents. Thank you so much for taking the time to think it through, do the research, and write it up. Is there any way you could present this at the upcoming SSA convention? I would donate something towards your air fare, if that is an issue.

I would also love to have a little "reminder card" that I could consult on a regular basis, maybe tucked in the glider pocket. We tend to forget even important information like this fairly quickly.

Thanks again,

Matt

Wow, what great work. Thanks!

I understand from the article that you looked at both US and German reports for the source data. Were there any significant differences, or did the accident causes break out in similar percentages?

Lynn Alley
"2KA"

I understand from the article that you looked at both US and German reports for the source data. Were there any significant differences, or did the accident causes break out in similar percentages?

Lynn Alley
"2KA"

Lynn Alley - great question. Overall the results are fairly similar and for many individual causes the numbers are too small to be statistically significant. That said, the following differences stood out to me and are significant:

Germany has a higher share of accidents in standard emergency situations - this is driven mainly by a much greater use of winch launches, which are more accident prone than aero-tows because pilots must react very quickly in case of a cable break or winch slow down before they stall and spin in. (It also takes a greater number of winch launches to get into lift because you can't wait to release until you're in a thermal.) The low attainable altitude on the winch also tempts pilots to thermal too low near the airport - thus Germany has a higher share of accidents caused by "delaying to land at the airport".

The US has a higher share of "fateful decision" accidents which I believe is attributable to a larger percentage of flights occurring in unforgiving terrain (most of Germany is flat with plenty of fields - similar to the Midwest.) The US has greater numbers of accidents due to "delaying decision to land out" and "out of glide range". I also looked at the data from Austria (although they are not included in the stats) and you will also see a greater share of decision mistakes there since almost all of the soaring takes place in the mountains.

Hope this helps.
Clemens

Nicely done and insightful....yes, a longish read, but I read the whole thing.
Thanks for your time.....

Only "nitpick" maybe run the text through a grammar/spell checker and repost. Some minor spacing, spelling and grammar issues.
Otherwise, the gist gets through and worth the read.

Charlie, ex-CFIG and regional/national contest pilot in the US.