Put your money where the risk is

On Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 1:20:35 PM UTC-8, Branko Stojkovic wrote:
I will answer your question right after you answer this one: do you think Masak made a bad decision(s) that cost him his life?

Tom

Tom,

Based on Tom Knauff's analysis of Peter Masak's fatal accident, I think it was most likely a poor decision that put him in situation in which his piloting skills could save him. Peter was flying in the 15m US nationals and was in a good position to win that day. Tom Knauff put it this way:

"He was obviously planning to fly to, and over Tussey ridge, into ridge lift and then south to a turnpoint. If he were successful, he would have been the only pilot to do so, and probably would have easily won the day. Only two other pilots flew to a nearby turnpoint, (Spruce Creek) and then returned towards the contest site."

Given the juicy reward that was waiting for him on the other side of Tussey ridge, I am guessing that Peter pushed his luck just a bit, reducing his safety margin. I am also guessing that 99 or 99.9 times out of a 100 he would have either made it over the ridge or would have been able to safely complete a 180° turn. I am also guessing that he encountered an unexpected sink and/or wind shear, which took away his diminished safety margin.

Would someone else in the same situation have been able to avoid stalling and made it out alive? Maybe, but I guess we'll never know for sure.

Branko
XYU

Branko,

The answer is a definite yes. Anytime you landout there is the very real potential (1 in 10, not 1 in 100) of a mishap, and I have had such an incident. In fact, I listed it explicitly in this thread. Did you not see it?

Tom Knauff said Masak "pushed his luck." You will not find "luck" listed in any flight training manual, so Knauff must have meant something else. I personally listened to Knauff describe his world distance record flight he made. He related how himself and three other very experienced pilots were trying to make it the last stretch back to the Ridge Soaring. They all committed to flying into an area where they had no landing option; if they didn't find some lift, remember this the end of a very long day, they ALL would have landed in the trees. Nobody commented on this possibility on the radio, but they all were aware of it, yet they did it anyhow. Well, one of them found some lift and they all got away with it, and Knauff got his world record flight. He obviously "pushed his luck" beyond any reasonable limit. I am more blunt: he made a very bad decision and got away with it. Masak did the same thing, but didn't get away with it. By any measure, both incidents are examples of "****-poor airmanship" where an unsuccessful outcome results in death(s).

So, part of solution is to analyze your flight afterwards and identify any decision that is likely a poor one:
1. What factors led up to the poor decision.
2. What options did you reject that would have been a better choice.
3. How you can change your future decision making to prevent a re-occurrence.
We all make bad decisions - the better pilots learn from them so as not to repeat them.

Tom

Tom,

I think we are in agreement. It's just that sometimes the debate on RAS gets a bit heated, at least for my taste. To quote Ursula Le Guin: The soundest fact may fail or prevail in the style of its telling.

Branko
XYU

On Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 3:18:55 PM UTC-8, Branko Stojkovic wrote:
Tom,

I think we are in agreement. It's just that sometimes the debate on RAS gets a bit heated, at least for my taste. To quote Ursula Le Guin: The soundest fact may fail or prevail in the style of its telling.

Branko
XYU

Branko,

You right-on there; I thought I was just making a simple observation that all could agree with, then it degenerated to the point that people were actually defending poor airmanship and cheering for luck. Go figure...

Tom

Actually we were acknowledging luck as a factor in glider fatalities and suggesting that denial and overconfidence are dangerous as well.
Dale

On Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 4:58:27 PM UTC-8, wrote:
Actually we were acknowledging luck as a factor in glider fatalities and suggesting that denial and overconfidence are dangerous as well.
Dale

....all of which fall into the category of poor airmanship (assuming you are depending upon "luck" for a satisfactory outcome), and are preventable. This should be good news for those of us concerned about our safety. Many power accidents are the result of "get-home-itis" which is bad prioritizing of outcomes.

Tom

...all of which fall into the category of poor airmanship (assuming you are depending upon "luck" for a satisfactory outcome), and are preventable.

OK, Tom, this is from one of your previous posts in this thread:

I honestly don't understand the rational here. It seems that the majority of you think you are alive only by luck! I can assure you that that isn't the case. You can't train a pilot to be lucky, only skilled. When someone once told me that I was lucky in life, I replied "I make my own luck."

Tom

Make up your effin' mind.

On Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 7:49:54 PM UTC-8, wrote:
...all of which fall into the category of poor airmanship (assuming you are depending upon "luck" for a satisfactory outcome), and are preventable..

OK, Tom, this is from one of your previous posts in this thread:

I honestly don't understand the rational here. It seems that the majority of you think you are alive only by luck! I can assure you that that isn't the case. You can't train a pilot to be lucky, only skilled. When someone once told me that I was lucky in life, I replied "I make my own luck."

Tom

Make up your effin' mind.

Mark,

I did explain that, but let's try again. You can make your own luck by inspecting potential landing fields from the ground, rather than from 5,000 ft. You can make your own luck by reviewing all NOTAMs in the area and knowing what runways are out of service. You can make your own luck by clearing all turns rather than depending upon other aircraft to stay out of your way. You can make your own luck by adding extra altitude (say 25%) to the required glide over unlandable terrain. You can make your own luck carefully inspecting your glider prior to each flight. You can make your own luck by monitoring weather reports while flying and landing at an alternate airport. I do all of these and more - you should to.

It gets down to increasing the odds of a successful outcome. I use the same principal in all aspects of my life. I found out that I had prostate cancer, but only after insisting on tests (PSA and a biopsy) to prove it one way or the other. After finding out that I had it, I concluded that the upside (living) outweighed the downside of a radical prostatectomy, so I had it removed and am cancer free after 3+ years. It did cost me one season of flying, but that was a reasonable trade-off. I definitely "made my own luck" on that one!

Tom