Soaring already DOA for the season???

In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000

In the US, 300M/100k is one per 3000, but to get there, it has been increasing at a steady 1.3 per day for the last 4 weeks. It seems clear that in some parts of the country, we need to do considerably more.

Dave's second link has a lot of guesses instead of real data, but seems refreshingly logically consistent in terms of a plan.



In short, 1.3 needs to be below 0.5 for a few weeks, then maybe .9 until there is a vaccine. Getting to 0.5 would require significant limits like one trip outside per household every few days. Social distancing with two way masks (N95 protect only the wearer) and a new social norm of situational awareness and sanitation.

In this world, unnecessary extra risk factors like flying are not even on the table until the 0.9 stage.

The only hope would be that there are verifiable, drastically different stats in some parts of the country which puts them in the 0.9 stage already.

I'd like to see a more optimistic logical prognosis so I can go flying, but what is coming from the Whitehouse seems the reverse.

We can fly in New Mexico.Â* I have a self launcher and need not see
another person.Â* If I have an accident, that's on me (over 47 years
without an accident).Â* (Un)fortunately, the weather is not to my liking.

On 3/28/2020 9:05 AM, wrote:
In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000
In the US, 300M/100k is one per 3000, but to get there, it has been increasing at a steady 1.3 per day for the last 4 weeks. It seems clear that in some parts of the country, we need to do considerably more.

Dave's second link has a lot of guesses instead of real data, but seems refreshingly logically consistent in terms of a plan.



In short, 1.3 needs to be below 0.5 for a few weeks, then maybe .9 until there is a vaccine. Getting to 0.5 would require significant limits like one trip outside per household every few days. Social distancing with two way masks (N95 protect only the wearer) and a new social norm of situational awareness and sanitation.

In this world, unnecessary extra risk factors like flying are not even on the table until the 0.9 stage.

The only hope would be that there are verifiable, drastically different stats in some parts of the country which puts them in the 0.9 stage already.

I'd like to see a more optimistic logical prognosis so I can go flying, but what is coming from the Whitehouse seems the reverse.

--
Dan, 5J

How to tell if we're beating Covid-19.

Great explanation of how to understand the numbers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc

5Z

Here in Arizona, golf courses and gun stores are listed under "essential services" and are currently open, so it's hard to see how a gliding club could be a much worse risk. TUSC is officially closed, but open for flying to members taking suitable distancing precautions. One commercial glider operation is still open for launches but has suspended training. Few restrictions on those capable of self-launching.

However, coronavirus infections are currently expanding exponentially in Arizona at a rate faster than the national average (a factor of ten increase each week) and it's likely we may see further restrictions soon.

Mike

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 4:41:31 PM UTC, Mike the Strike wrote:
Here in Arizona, golf courses and gun stores are listed under "essential services" and are currently open, so it's hard to see how a gliding club could be a much worse risk. TUSC is officially closed, but open for flying to members taking suitable distancing precautions. One commercial glider operation is still open for launches but has suspended training. Few restrictions on those capable of self-launching.

However, coronavirus infections are currently expanding exponentially in Arizona at a rate faster than the national average (a factor of ten increase each week) and it's likely we may see further restrictions soon.

Mike

Gun stores?!

Thats an absolute neccessity! I’ve got all the ammo I need however.
Dan

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:27:22 AM UTC-6, wrote:
I’ve got all the ammo I need however.
Dan

Dan, Thanks for this! I can't get through my day without reading about how superior your line of reasoning is to every where else. And for reminding us that any problem in the world can be solved with more guns and ammo. (Isn't the run on guns what got us through Y2K?) Just brilliant!
Thanks
Kirk

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 10:21:56 AM UTC-7, wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 4:41:31 PM UTC, Mike the Strike wrote:
Here in Arizona, golf courses and gun stores are listed under "essential services" and are currently open, so it's hard to see how a gliding club could be a much worse risk. TUSC is officially closed, but open for flying to members taking suitable distancing precautions. One commercial glider operation is still open for launches but has suspended training. Few restrictions on those capable of self-launching.

However, coronavirus infections are currently expanding exponentially in Arizona at a rate faster than the national average (a factor of ten increase each week) and it's likely we may see further restrictions soon.

Mike

Gun stores?!

In San Diego County, liquor, pot and gun stores are all considered essential. Not by me, but by some set of state, county and local government. One would think we could bribe a better class of governance.

:-DÂ* Oh, Jonathan...!

On 3/28/2020 3:54 PM, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
One would think we could bribe a better class of governance.

--
Dan, 5J