$1 billion BMS Ooops...

On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 14:42:01 UTC-7, wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/
Discus amongst yourselves...
Some comments:

- High current draw for VTO launches (Lilium) - IIRC they are planning to use supercapacitors to provide the current boost so that the batteries don't have to. A supercapacitor/LiPo combination makes a lot of sense for that problem.

- Electric vs. gas: a very experienced motorglider ferry pilot, who I am sure does not want to be named, once told me when discussing Stemmes: "I've had every known Stemme issue except the in-flight fire, I'm not looking forward to that one..." I side with Eric here - we have normalized all the hassle that goes with gas self-launchers. When we get mature technology electric self-launchers, they'll dominate. Current complaints about electric sound exactly like the complaints about electric cars, before Tesla got it right.

On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 4:10:48 PM UTC-5, ProfJ wrote:
On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 14:42:01 UTC-7, wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/
Discus amongst yourselves...
Some comments:

- High current draw for VTO launches (Lilium) - IIRC they are planning to use supercapacitors to provide the current boost so that the batteries don't have to. A supercapacitor/LiPo combination makes a lot of sense for that problem.

- Electric vs. gas: a very experienced motorglider ferry pilot, who I am sure does not want to be named, once told me when discussing Stemmes: "I've had every known Stemme issue except the in-flight fire, I'm not looking forward to that one..." I side with Eric here - we have normalized all the hassle that goes with gas self-launchers. When we get mature technology electric self-launchers, they'll dominate. Current complaints about electric sound exactly like the complaints about electric cars, before Tesla got it right.

So how big is the electric glider market vs. electric car market? Things get done with proper research and funding. I don't see that happen for the glider market. I suggest you review David's presentation. He discussed this point.

On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 6:28:27 PM UTC-8, Andrzej Kobus wrote:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 4:10:48 PM UTC-5, ProfJ wrote:
On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 14:42:01 UTC-7, wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/
Discus amongst yourselves...
Some comments:

- High current draw for VTO launches (Lilium) - IIRC they are planning to use supercapacitors to provide the current boost so that the batteries don't have to. A supercapacitor/LiPo combination makes a lot of sense for that problem.

- Electric vs. gas: a very experienced motorglider ferry pilot, who I am sure does not want to be named, once told me when discussing Stemmes: "I've had every known Stemme issue except the in-flight fire, I'm not looking forward to that one..." I side with Eric here - we have normalized all the hassle that goes with gas self-launchers. When we get mature technology electric self-launchers, they'll dominate. Current complaints about electric sound exactly like the complaints about electric cars, before Tesla got it right.
So how big is the electric glider market vs. electric car market? Things get done with proper research and funding. I don't see that happen for the glider market. I suggest you review David's presentation. He discussed this point.

ICO glider engines have been developed over the last 70 years or so. And, then, many of them have come from the 2-cycle engine applications such as snowmobiles and ultralights. The electric glider market is much more immature..

Tom

2G wrote on 3/2/2021 7:25 PM:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 6:28:27 PM UTC-8, Andrzej Kobus wrote:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 4:10:48 PM UTC-5, ProfJ wrote:
On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 14:42:01 UTC-7, wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/
Discus amongst yourselves...
Some comments:

- High current draw for VTO launches (Lilium) - IIRC they are planning to use supercapacitors to provide the current boost so that the batteries don't have to. A supercapacitor/LiPo combination makes a lot of sense for that problem.

- Electric vs. gas: a very experienced motorglider ferry pilot, who I am sure does not want to be named, once told me when discussing Stemmes: "I've had every known Stemme issue except the in-flight fire, I'm not looking forward to that one..." I side with Eric here - we have normalized all the hassle that goes with gas self-launchers. When we get mature technology electric self-launchers, they'll dominate. Current complaints about electric sound exactly like the complaints about electric cars, before Tesla got it right.
So how big is the electric glider market vs. electric car market? Things get done with proper research and funding. I don't see that happen for the glider market. I suggest you review David's presentation. He discussed this point.

ICO glider engines have been developed over the last 70 years or so. And, then, many of them have come from the 2-cycle engine applications such as snowmobiles and ultralights. The electric glider market is much more immature..

That immaturity means they have a lot of promise, compared to the ICE gliders. We know in 5
years the performance of the electrics will increase significantly; the fossil fueled ones -
not nearly so much. Even at the current immature stage, they are so desirable, all the major
manufacturers, and some of the second tier, offer at least two electric models in mast or FES
varieties.

I suggest that in maybe 5, but certainly in 10 years, the discussions will no longer be about
gas vs electric, but which electric to buy.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
lyhttps://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1

On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 8:27:55 PM UTC-8, Eric Greenwell wrote:
2G wrote on 3/2/2021 7:25 PM:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 6:28:27 PM UTC-8, Andrzej Kobus wrote:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 4:10:48 PM UTC-5, ProfJ wrote:
On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 14:42:01 UTC-7, wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/
Discus amongst yourselves...
Some comments:

- High current draw for VTO launches (Lilium) - IIRC they are planning to use supercapacitors to provide the current boost so that the batteries don't have to. A supercapacitor/LiPo combination makes a lot of sense for that problem.

- Electric vs. gas: a very experienced motorglider ferry pilot, who I am sure does not want to be named, once told me when discussing Stemmes: "I've had every known Stemme issue except the in-flight fire, I'm not looking forward to that one..." I side with Eric here - we have normalized all the hassle that goes with gas self-launchers. When we get mature technology electric self-launchers, they'll dominate. Current complaints about electric sound exactly like the complaints about electric cars, before Tesla got it right.
So how big is the electric glider market vs. electric car market? Things get done with proper research and funding. I don't see that happen for the glider market. I suggest you review David's presentation. He discussed this point.

ICO glider engines have been developed over the last 70 years or so. And, then, many of them have come from the 2-cycle engine applications such as snowmobiles and ultralights. The electric glider market is much more immature..

That immaturity means they have a lot of promise, compared to the ICE gliders. We know in 5
years the performance of the electrics will increase significantly; the fossil fueled ones -
not nearly so much. Even at the current immature stage, they are so desirable, all the major
manufacturers, and some of the second tier, offer at least two electric models in mast or FES
varieties.

I suggest that in maybe 5, but certainly in 10 years, the discussions will no longer be about
gas vs electric, but which electric to buy.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
lyhttps://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1

Wishful thinking duly noted. The development, deployment and long-term flight experience of aircraft takes time. Ten years is a good estimate for a single model such as the Antares. Its first flight was in 2003, so development must have started about 20 years ago. I think that in 5 to 10 years we will be thinking "Boy, those electric gliders looked promising at the time, but if we knew then what we know now I would never have bought one." Successful product development just can't be rushed.

For the moment the big limitation seems to me to be weight. I looked hard at the AS33 electric. You get one launch to 2000' and then 9000' of climb to get home. For that, it's really hard to get off the ground at less than 10 lbs/ft2 empty, and 10.5 in 15 m mode. Gas has a wonderful energy density. I'm surprised some sort of hybrid doesn't make sense, gas to recharge a smaller battery, then eliminate the drive elements with an electric motor. But I presume they worked the numbers on this.

John Cochrane BB

John Cochrane wrote on 3/3/2021 8:53 PM:
For the moment the big limitation seems to me to be weight. I looked hard at the AS33 electric. You get one launch to 2000' and then 9000' of climb to get home. For that, it's really hard to get off the ground at less than 10 lbs/ft2 empty, and 10.5 in 15 m mode. Gas has a wonderful energy density. I'm surprised some sort of hybrid doesn't make sense, gas to recharge a smaller battery, then eliminate the drive elements with an electric motor. But I presume they worked the numbers on this.

A hybrid system with a gas engine wouldn't have the pucker factor associated with starting a
gas powered motorglider to avoid a landing: if the hybrid engine doesn't start, it just means
your potential retrieve distance is shorter, instead of an imminent landing.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

On Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 11:53:15 PM UTC-5, wrote:
For the moment the big limitation seems to me to be weight. I looked hard at the AS33 electric. You get one launch to 2000' and then 9000' of climb to get home. For that, it's really hard to get off the ground at less than 10 lbs/ft2 empty, and 10.5 in 15 m mode. Gas has a wonderful energy density.. I'm surprised some sort of hybrid doesn't make sense, gas to recharge a smaller battery, then eliminate the drive elements with an electric motor. But I presume they worked the numbers on this.

John Cochrane BB
Hybrid, at best, would provide no benefit in weight and the complexity of both solutions added together.
The problem the manufacturer's have is that they know the users expect to launch at max weight and have acceptable safety margins at launch.
This requires powerful motors having high consumption. Oh- and we want long range for retrieves.
All this adds up to big batteries.
Now insert this into an airframe designed for high wing loading and IGC specified maximum mass.
You end up with a glider not suitable for eastern US, nor most of Europe.
Waiting for new batteries that will solve this problem is a fools errand.
Maybe manufacturers should consider 2 options on batteries. 1/2 the battery in the '33 would save somewhere around 65 lb by my estimate. On a 107 sq ft glider, that is a big deal.
I'm looking now at electric 29E possibility. With the system I have in the '24E(L) I would expect a launch and around 3000 feet of additional retrieve climb from a system that would add about 40 lb to the weight of the 29E. With 25kw available at launch I see as a dry self launch only ship.
FWIW
UH

2G wrote on 3/3/2021 6:11 PM:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 8:27:55 PM UTC-8, Eric Greenwell wrote:
2G wrote on 3/2/2021 7:25 PM:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 6:28:27 PM UTC-8, Andrzej Kobus wrote:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 4:10:48 PM UTC-5, ProfJ wrote:
On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 14:42:01 UTC-7, wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/
Discus amongst yourselves...
Some comments:

- High current draw for VTO launches (Lilium) - IIRC they are planning to use supercapacitors to provide the current boost so that the batteries don't have to. A supercapacitor/LiPo combination makes a lot of sense for that problem.

- Electric vs. gas: a very experienced motorglider ferry pilot, who I am sure does not want to be named, once told me when discussing Stemmes: "I've had every known Stemme issue except the in-flight fire, I'm not looking forward to that one..." I side with Eric here - we have normalized all the hassle that goes with gas self-launchers. When we get mature technology electric self-launchers, they'll dominate. Current complaints about electric sound exactly like the complaints about electric cars, before Tesla got it right.
So how big is the electric glider market vs. electric car market? Things get done with proper research and funding. I don't see that happen for the glider market. I suggest you review David's presentation. He discussed this point.

ICO glider engines have been developed over the last 70 years or so. And, then, many of them have come from the 2-cycle engine applications such as snowmobiles and ultralights. The electric glider market is much more immature..

That immaturity means they have a lot of promise, compared to the ICE gliders. We know in 5
years the performance of the electrics will increase significantly; the fossil fueled ones -
not nearly so much. Even at the current immature stage, they are so desirable, all the major
manufacturers, and some of the second tier, offer at least two electric models in mast or FES
varieties.

I suggest that in maybe 5, but certainly in 10 years, the discussions will no longer be about
gas vs electric, but which electric to buy.
--
yhttps://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1

Wishful thinking duly noted. The development, deployment and long-term flight experience of aircraft takes time. Ten years is a good estimate for a single model such as the Antares. Its first flight was in 2003, so development must have started about 20 years ago. I think that in 5 to 10 years we will be thinking "Boy, those electric gliders looked promising at the time, but if we knew then what we know now I would never have bought one." Successful product development just can't be rushed.

It's not wishful thinking when there are four companies selling electric glider power systems:
Lange, Solo, Pipistrel, and LZ Design (FES). The glider manufacturers do not have to design
their own system, like Antares had to. That speeds development (even eliminates it in some
cases), reduces their cost, and increases reliability.

While the glider market is very small, the main component - batteries - is under intense
development by major corporations around the world. We will benefit from this investment,
without investing a dime in it.

As for glider pilots feeling sorry for their current electric choices in 5 or 10 years, well,
I'm going to suggest many glider pilots will be feeling sorry for their current gas engine
choices ;^)

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

On Thursday, March 4, 2021 at 8:22:34 AM UTC-8, Eric Greenwell wrote:
2G wrote on 3/3/2021 6:11 PM:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 8:27:55 PM UTC-8, Eric Greenwell wrote:
2G wrote on 3/2/2021 7:25 PM:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 6:28:27 PM UTC-8, Andrzej Kobus wrote:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 4:10:48 PM UTC-5, ProfJ wrote:
On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 14:42:01 UTC-7, wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/
Discus amongst yourselves...
Some comments:

- High current draw for VTO launches (Lilium) - IIRC they are planning to use supercapacitors to provide the current boost so that the batteries don't have to. A supercapacitor/LiPo combination makes a lot of sense for that problem.

- Electric vs. gas: a very experienced motorglider ferry pilot, who I am sure does not want to be named, once told me when discussing Stemmes: "I've had every known Stemme issue except the in-flight fire, I'm not looking forward to that one..." I side with Eric here - we have normalized all the hassle that goes with gas self-launchers. When we get mature technology electric self-launchers, they'll dominate. Current complaints about electric sound exactly like the complaints about electric cars, before Tesla got it right.
So how big is the electric glider market vs. electric car market? Things get done with proper research and funding. I don't see that happen for the glider market. I suggest you review David's presentation. He discussed this point.

ICO glider engines have been developed over the last 70 years or so. And, then, many of them have come from the 2-cycle engine applications such as snowmobiles and ultralights. The electric glider market is much more immature..

That immaturity means they have a lot of promise, compared to the ICE gliders. We know in 5
years the performance of the electrics will increase significantly; the fossil fueled ones -
not nearly so much. Even at the current immature stage, they are so desirable, all the major
manufacturers, and some of the second tier, offer at least two electric models in mast or FES
varieties.

I suggest that in maybe 5, but certainly in 10 years, the discussions will no longer be about
gas vs electric, but which electric to buy.
--
yhttps://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1

Wishful thinking duly noted. The development, deployment and long-term flight experience of aircraft takes time. Ten years is a good estimate for a single model such as the Antares. Its first flight was in 2003, so development must have started about 20 years ago. I think that in 5 to 10 years we will be thinking "Boy, those electric gliders looked promising at the time, but if we knew then what we know now I would never have bought one." Successful product development just can't be rushed.

It's not wishful thinking when there are four companies selling electric glider power systems:
Lange, Solo, Pipistrel, and LZ Design (FES). The glider manufacturers do not have to design
their own system, like Antares had to. That speeds development (even eliminates it in some
cases), reduces their cost, and increases reliability.

While the glider market is very small, the main component - batteries - is under intense
development by major corporations around the world. We will benefit from this investment,
without investing a dime in it.

As for glider pilots feeling sorry for their current electric choices in 5 or 10 years, well,
I'm going to suggest many glider pilots will be feeling sorry for their current gas engine
choices ;^)
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

Predicting the future is ALWAYS wishful thinking. If you could actually do it reliably you would be a billionaire. Having four companies doing it doesn't mean the development is 4 times as fast, you just get 4 possible failures instead of one.

There are already some pieces of "common wisdom" that have been debunked. One is that electric is inherently more reliable than ICE. The fire incidents are of greatest concern. Dave's issues with his Antares are also troubling - systems that are dependent on complex software can have failure modes that are only found by extensive testing. I know of another Antares owner who had to fly a technician over from Germany to fix the problems with his glider. And the small numbers of electric gliders means that buyers will ultimately do most of the testing themselves. Long term support of these complex systems is yet another question.