How common are multiple point failures?

"Richard Kaplan" wrote
I have heard of other stories like this and they have always been in
reference to planes which just changed hands or planes which were known to
have deferred maintenance.

I think you've nailed it. In fact, the three cases I know of all
involved the delivery flight after purchse on a 'great deal.' Perhaps
there are no 'great deals' in the used airplane market?

Michael

"Michael" wrote in message
om...

I think you've nailed it. In fact, the three cases I know of all
involved the delivery flight after purchse on a 'great deal.' Perhaps
there are no 'great deals' in the used airplane market?

Correct... Rationally thinking there never should be a "great deal" in a
used airplane market -- at least for an airworthy airplane. Great deals in
other markets (i.e. real estate) generally occur due to local abberations in
supply and demand. An airworthy airplane is the ULTIMATE mobile asset and
thus its price should be determined on a much more broad geographic market.

The only reason I can consider for an airplane to sell below its market
value would be if the seller needs to sell it quickly. With interest rates
as low as they are, it clearly makes sense to hold an airplane for 3-6
months if necessary to get its market value. The only real reason to sell
below market value would be if the owner is so leveraged that he can no
longer hold that loan on the airplane -- if that is the case, then the odds
are extremely high that he also has not been in an economic position to
properly maintain the airplane.

So as I see it, there is no reason to get a "good deal" on an airworthy
airplane sold in an arms-length transaction. The only "good deal" would be
for an unairworthy/project airplane or a transaction among friends rather
than on the open market.

--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com

"Michael" wrote in message
om...

involved the delivery flight after purchse on a 'great deal.' Perhaps
there are no 'great deals' in the used airplane market?


Correct... Rationally thinking there never should be a "great deal" in a
used airplane market -- at least for an airworthy airplane. Great deals in
other markets (i.e. real estate) generally occur due to local abberations in
supply and demand. An airworthy airplane is the ULTIMATE mobile asset and
thus its price should be determined on a much more broad geographic market.

The only reason I can consider for an airplane to sell below its market
value would be if the seller needs to sell it quickly. With interest rates
as low as they are, it clearly makes sense to hold an airplane for 3-6
months if necessary to get its market value. The only real reason to sell
below market value would be if the owner is so leveraged that he can no
longer hold that loan on the airplane -- if that is the case, then the odds
are extremely high that he also has not been in an economic position to
properly maintain the airplane.

So as I see it, there is no reason to get a "good deal" on an airworthy
airplane sold in an arms-length transaction. The only "good deal" would be
for an unairworthy/project airplane or a transaction among friends rather
than on the open market.


--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com

"Richard Kaplan" wrote
The only reason I can consider for an airplane to sell below its market
value would be if the seller needs to sell it quickly.

Bingo. That's the case with the last such incident I had in mind.

The only real reason to sell
below market value would be if the owner is so leveraged that he can no
longer hold that loan on the airplane

Right again.

if that is the case, then the odds
are extremely high that he also has not been in an economic position to
properly maintain the airplane.

Which is what I told the buyer. He inspected the airplane (half a day
for a twin of make and model he has never owned or maintained) and
pronounced it to be in good shape. The failures occurred as he flew
it home.

Michael