Issues around de-ice on a 182

"Michael" wrote in message
om...

I think you're dramatically different from experienced IFR pilots on
the Gulf Coast. I suspect you're no different from the pilots in your
neck of the woods. All the Gulf Coast IFR pilots I know who have
equipment and experience comparable to mine have spherics and use it
agressively.

Do you think this is a function of the weather patterns in our geographic
areas (i.e. scattered airmass storms vs. frontal storms)?

In other words, if you were to move to Pennsylvania do you think you would
retain more or less the same summer utilization of your airplane?

My guess is that your thunderstorm philosophy would shift to that of
Northeast pilots while you were flying here.

I think part of this relates though to a definition of "cancelling" a
flight. I fly to Florida fairly often and I do not think I have ever had to
cancel a morning flight, yet more than once I have diverted somewhere due to
afternoon thunderstorms. When I have had to divert and then I do some
hangar flying with local pilots, usually the reply is, "You know down here
you have to plan to get your flying done by 2PM" -- I've heard that from
newly minted private pilots and from CFIIs who are "local" in Florida.

Even in Pennsylvania I guess we need to consider what it means to "cancel" a
flight. Earlier this week I returned from Mackinac Island Michigan to my
home base in Western Pennsylvania with a stop in Eastern Ohio to drop off a
passenger. There were thunderstorms enroute over the Great Lakes but I was
able to use my radar/spherics/datalink to reroute myself about 50 miles out
of the way on the first leg, thus completing the segment to Ohio by about
2PM. Yet by the time I was ready to complete the final 100-mile segment
home there were storms building enroute and near by destination as the
trailing edge of a frontal system. I "canceled" the flight until the
following AM, although I suppose I could have just "delayed" it until 11PM
when the storms had cleared -- clearly departing in the afternoon was not an
option because it turned out that a group of cells was right over my
departure airport between 6PM and 9PM.

So I think in part it depends on our definition of "cancelling" a flight.
If I lived in Florida and never "scheduled" a flight from 2PM to 8PM, then I
guess I might never "cancel" a flight in Florida.


--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com

"Richard Kaplan" wrote
Do you think this is a function of the weather patterns in our geographic
areas (i.e. scattered airmass storms vs. frontal storms)?

No, although of course I can't rule that out.

In other words, if you were to move to Pennsylvania do you think you would
retain more or less the same summer utilization of your airplane?

So far my (admittedly limited) experience indicates that I would. I
have flown around frontal systems in the Midwest and Northeast and I
have not been surprised.

Getting the feel of what I could and could not do wasn't something
that happened all at once. In Texas (and much of the Gulf Coast) we
get airmass thunderstorms on an almost daily basis for half the year.
Of course we also get frontal activity. I used to stay away from
frontal activity, but over time, working closer and closer to it, I've
found where the limits are.

I think the fear of getting boxed in by T-storms is somewhat akin to
the fear of getting trapped by a widespread region of freezing rain -
not unfounded, but somewhat overblown. The only way to really get
trapped is (1) to have a whole bunch of new, very closely spaced cells
form too quickly to escape or land or (2) fly between two long lines
that squeeze you in faster than you can escape or land. Since the
Stormscope provides a good indication on general static discharge
activity (not just cells) and visual contact (in my experience 85% of
an IFR flight in such conditions will be flown in the clear) with
developing clouds provides information on vertical development, you
really have to ignore what's going on around you to get trapped. I
also can't really think of any accidents within recent memory where a
spherics-equipped airplane was trapped that way.

Michael

"Michael" wrote in message
om...

So far my (admittedly limited) experience indicates that I would. I
have flown around frontal systems in the Midwest and Northeast and I
have not been surprised.

Does that mean you can fly almost all the time in the summer close to your
planned course with a minimal deviation?

Does it mean you can fly if you are willing to deviate by 50 miles? 100
miles? 200 miles?

Does it mean you can fly if you are willing to adjust your departure time by
an hour? 4 hours? 8 hours?

I think "cancellation" is a relative term.

As a general rule I find I can make most summer trips if I am willing to
adjust my flight plan either by 200 miles or by 8 hours. That generally
means I just about never cancel a long-distance family vacation trip (only a
double Hurricane one caused me to do that), yet I will frequently cancel
same-day out-and-back business trips.


--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com

"Richard Kaplan" wrote
Does it mean you can fly if you are willing to deviate by 50 miles? 100
miles? 200 miles?

I would say that 90% of the time, I deviate less than 50 miles (20
minutes or less as my plane flies) total. I have had to deviate over
100 miles. I've never had to deviate 200.

Does it mean you can fly if you are willing to adjust your departure time by
an hour? 4 hours? 8 hours?

I think the longest I've ever had to adjust was close to two hours (I
won't launch into conditions I think nothing of flying through because
options are so limited on takeoff) but adjustmentst of up to 30
minutes are common.

As a general rule I find I can make most summer trips if I am willing to
adjust my flight plan either by 200 miles or by 8 hours.

And that was more or less where I was when I started using spherics.
It's just that by sheer experience, I've learned to judge the weather
and the capability of the equipment more accurately than that.

Michael

"Michael" wrote in message
om...


"Richard Kaplan" wrote

I think the longest I've ever had to adjust was close to two hours (I
won't launch into conditions I think nothing of flying through because
options are so limited on takeoff) but adjustmentst of up to 30
minutes are common.

OK so suppose you are traveling due West on a 160 nm trip from Pittsburgh PA
to Columbus OH and in between there is an occluded cold front with a 250
mile vertical line of thunderstorms associated with the front. The line of
storms includes level 3 through 5 cells and the largest break in precip
would be a circuitous path at times only 15 miles wide.

I presume you are saying you would penetrate this line based on the areas
where spherics show the least activity. Yet not all storm areas with hail
or severe turbulence will show up on spherics, not to mention that the holes
between the storms could easily close. I am not sure how I could
comfortably do this trip even with multiple sources of information, i.e.
spherics plus radar plus datalink, plus the ability to fly in the lower
flight levels up to FL230.


--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com