Future of GA

On Sat, 23 Oct 2004 05:48:38 GMT, "C Kingsbury"
wrote:


On the realist side: The cost of operating a real x-country plane is only
going to increase. Minijets like the eclipse may bring private jet charter
within the reach of a hundred thousand more people but they won't make it
cheaper to fly around in a Skylane or Bonanza. Avgas prices in the $4-$5
range are going to have people giving light twins away in a decade or so,
assuming we can even still buy 100LL. Cirrus, Cessna, and the other leading
manufacturers should really be trying to move towards either JET-A diesels
or engines that can run mogas. Continental and Lycoming likewise ought to
really be thinking a bit more about their future here. If all the engines
out there today turn to pumpkins, they are not going to be selling a lot of
parts.

I agree, cost of fuel is placing a massive pressure on GA. Avgas is
already well over $3.00 at most of the larger airports, and still
seems to be climbing. If it hits $5.00, the direct operating cost of
any light twin is going to be $100/hr. The big twins closer to
$200/hr. That will put it out of the reach of most private
individuals. This (amongst many other factors) are already affecting
the twin market.

The costs to run a light twin are astronomical (consider the
following):
1. Acquistion costs $150k = (which is really an incredible deal)
2. Direct operating costs $60/hr
3. Hangar = $500/month
4. Insurance = $400/month
5. Maintenance = ???, but you can expect $500/month

So flying 150 hrs per year costs:
$ 9,000 fuel + oil
$ 6,000 hangar
$ 5,000 insurance
$ 6,000 maintenance
-----------------------------------
$26, 000 / year

Plus the owner of a twin has to be prepared to shell out massive bucks
at any time. This limits ownership to a fiscally elite portion of the
population (or businesses that use the plane).

On the bright side, there is innovation in the airframe and engine
marketplace, and this will help to offset the rising costs elsewhere
in the system. Lancair, Diamond, and Cirrus make planes that get
better mpg than existing singles. The bad news, they still use the
same Lyc or Cont engines with roughly the same BSFC as our Pipers and
Cessnas. Their efficiencies are gained through low drag airframes.

There is development in the fuel efficient diesels that burn cheaper
Jet-A, but most of these diesels (and their associated STCs) are
priced well above the cost of a brand new Lycoming. Pilots and
aircraft owners tend to be conservative with airplane expenditures,
and few are willing to pay $40k for an engine with minimal history,
few mechanics know how to fix, and an unknown future.

I think the GA population will continue to embrace Lyc and Cont until
100LL prices are painful, but will be forced to fly less because of
rising fuel costs.

-Nathan