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![]() Colin W Kingsbury wrote: Second is the issue of cost structure. No matter how you look at it, running an airline is a hellish business. It's as capital-intensive as real estate, only your main assets are always depreciating. Operating costs are astounding, and not easily adjusted. Pilots, mechanics, FAs, gate leases, etc. all add up very quickly, and it takes years to adjust the formula. So newcomers will always have the advantage because they built their business models around last year's conditions, and not the last decade's. But come ten years from now those newcomers could be in just as bad shape. Look at Southwest. They are doing it right. All the people really want is a seat at the cheapest possible rate. We don't need your fancy clubs and we certainly don't care about boarding the plane 5 minutes before everybody else. Just get to my destination when you say you will and be friendly about it. Interestingly for us, the future is in some ways headed in our direction. Regional jets are replacing not only the Saab 340s and Dash 8s, but MD-80s and DC-9s as well. Many of the new airlines have all-RJ fleets from the ground up. That's because an airline pilot just isn't worth $175K per year. Period. Get a jumpseat ride in an RJ and you'll see a 7 year can fly one. When the computer voice says 10 feet pull the power and the nose up and you land. There's nothing to do anymore. Which is good, that's what makes it safe. |
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![]() "Newps" wrote in message ... Look at Southwest. They are doing it right. I agree, but the problem is that Southwest cannot serve the whole country and sustain its business model. They exist by operating direct service on a very narrow range of routes. This is why you do not see SWA flying in and out of BOS, LGA, or any number of other extremely high-volume airports. All the people really want is a seat at the cheapest possible rate. We don't need your fancy clubs and we certainly don't care about boarding the plane 5 minutes before everybody else. Well, I used to fly upwards of 100,000 miles a year, rarely going two weeks without at least one trip. When you do that you get to spend a lot of time waiting for missed connections and weather delays, and the clubs really do help. It's one thing to put up with the cattle call a few times a year but every week? You'd go mad. Likewise, the early boarding offers one key benefit: guaranteed overhead luggage bin space. This meant (a) I could save time by carrying all my luggage and (b) still be comfortable by not having to put a bag under the seat. Like I said, when you do it constantly, it really adds up. With times being tough the past few years, companies were free to force their traveling employees to eat a lot of s--t and fly only the cheapest available fares. As conditions improve this will change. Good employees will demand better accomodations or they will quit. This is why I think Airtran has been very smart to offer Business Class seating at reasonable prices. I used to run a team of consultants and was always willing to spend a little more to make the trip easier on them. As for the client, I would explain that they were paying $1800 a day for the consultant's time, so they ought to be willing to spend a few hundred more to make sure that nice fellow showed up refreshed and ready to work, not chewed up and spit out. IMHO we need to weed the 6 majors (UA, US, AA, DL, NW, CO) down to three or four, probably by allowing some of the mergers that would have been unthinkable previously. UA, US, and DL are all sick men and I expect them to look nothing like they do today within a few years. I do not expect US to survive at all and do not understand how UA has managed to avoid going back into bankruptcy. -cwk. |
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"Colin W Kingsbury" wrote
I agree, but the problem is that Southwest cannot serve the whole country and sustain its business model. Then maybe the portions of the country that can't be served by that busiess model have to pay a lot more. Or maybe the hub-and-spoke model is outdated. In fact, maybe it was never a good model in the first place, and was only used because certain costs (airport/highway expansion, air traffic control) could be externalized. Maybe the future is in large numbers of smaller airplanes (737 and down) flying point-to-point routes. Like I said, when you do it constantly, it really adds up. It sure does. I used to travel on business regularly, and I hated Southwest. Just realize that the business traveller of old is an endangered species, which is making the old style airlines hurt. With times being tough the past few years, companies were free to force their traveling employees to eat a lot of s--t and fly only the cheapest available fares. Yup. As conditions improve this will change. Good employees will demand better accomodations or they will quit. You're kidding yourself. This is the economy we can look forward to for years. Think jobless recovery. This is why I think Airtran has been very smart to offer Business Class seating at reasonable prices. I doubt it. I think the Southwest model is the future - one class. One might even say no class. IMHO we need to weed the 6 majors (UA, US, AA, DL, NW, CO) down to three or four Which will happen, I can assure you. probably by allowing some of the mergers that would have been unthinkable previously. And what good will that do? The fundamental problem isn't too many players - it's too much capacity. The business traveler isn't coming back. He's doing his job by remote control, usually via phone and internet - and usually from Bangalore. Michael |
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