Light Sport Aircraft for Private Pilots (Long)

On Sun, 20 Feb 2005 15:18:02 GMT, "Vaughn"
wrote:


"Jimbob" wrote in message
.. .
Hi all.

I'm a current student pilot(PPSEL) and I have been reading up on the
new sport pilot/LSA stuff that has come about.

Welcome!

Thanks!

Generally, I see the issue as FAA certifications costs. Massive, to
say the least. Couple that with a lack of pilots to purchase
aircraft, preventing manufacturers from spreading those and other
tooling costs over a large volume.

That is only part of the problem. Other problems include the small market
(compared to that for other major manufactured goods) and product liability.

Product liabily is a large variable. Unfortunately it is hinged more
on marketing and public perception than law. Maybe tort reform will
fix this. I can't even being to speculate on the future direction
this takes with LSA.


It is also my understanding that the owner could
self maintain after as little as 16 hours of training.

This could have a great effect on flying costs. On the other hand, a owner
who can sign off on his/her own annual would have an opportunity to defer needed
maintenance. This will have a negative effect on both safety and resale value.

Good point. However, I don't think an owner can sign off on the
inspection. That requires a different rating. He can just do the
maintenance required to bring it up to snuff. Therefore, there is a
little check and balance here.

(I could be wrong here.)



With the consensus standards, the initial prices for the airframes
will be much cheaper.

This is yet to be seen.

Given, since nothing has been delivered yet. But the companies are
taking preorders at reasonable prices. If they start losing their
shirts, things might change.


The homebuilt companies appear to be already
chomping at the bit. I have seen some nice aircraft advertised for
much less than $80K. However, these prices are using FAA certified
engines and instruments. In the future, I would expect consensus
standard powerplants (Honda, perhaps?)

After that big court decision ($96 million, Textron Lycoming) last week do
you really think that Honda would want anything to do with that market?


(I think the damnages will be reduced on appeal)

Yes, actually I do. I think Toyota is still toying with a GA plane and
Honda is working on the HondaJet. Commercial aviation is pretty
litigous, so think they would be prepared.

I would expect it work more like FlyBoys, inc has licensed honda
engine technology for use in GA. Some minimal liability protection,
but not much.


and instruments. Some of the
nice homebuilt glass panels and FADEC systems may meet ASTM standards
in the near future and they cost a fraction of a G1000.

True. Do you think that they will last for 30 years like today's
instrument panels?


Hard to say. Solid state electronics don't wear out as much as they
become obsolete. Sensors need to be replaced, etc. But compared to
truely mechanical devices like gyros, they could potentially have a
much longer life.

But if the price comes down enough, they wont have to.



As another poster noted. a slight change in the LSA ruling could
significantly improve the value of Cessna 15X planes, making flying that much
more expensive for us weekend renters.


Maybe for a short speculative period, but not in the long term.

1) If the rule allowed more pilots to use it, but the number of pilots
was unchanged and no new planes enter the market, demand remains
constant. Therefore, the value would not change.

2) If the number of pilots increased without an increase in supply of
new cheap aircraft, then demand increases and supply remains fixed.
Their value would go up. i.e. increased interest in sportpilot.

3) However, if the rule changed, # of pilots remained fixed and there
were new competative products on the market that were more desireable
and cost effective, then their value would drop. i.e. LSA are released
on the market and they are cheaper to maintain.

The questions are; How interested are people in sportpilot and will
the new planes really hit the market? I see #3 personally.

"Jimbob" wrote in message
...
As another poster noted. a slight change in the LSA ruling could
significantly improve the value of Cessna 15X planes, making flying that much
more expensive for us weekend renters.


Maybe for a short speculative period, but not in the long term.

1) If the rule allowed more pilots to use it, but the number of pilots
was unchanged and no new planes enter the market, demand remains
constant. Therefore, the value would not change.

There is one factor that you are not taking into account. If no new LSA
planes hit the market (unlikely), if the hoard of new LSA pilots fails to
materialize (very possible), there is still one big sport pilot-driven change in
the aircraft market that will certainly happen, older pilots who are concerned
about passing their next medical will gravitate towards sport-eligible airplanes
and those airframes will be in greater demand. This might be a really good time
to own a cherry Ercoupe or Cub.


2) If the number of pilots increased without an increase in supply of
new cheap aircraft, then demand increases and supply remains fixed.
Their value would go up. i.e. increased interest in sportpilot.

3) However, if the rule changed, # of pilots remained fixed and there
were new competative products on the market that were more desireable
and cost effective, then their value would drop. i.e. LSA are released
on the market and they are cheaper to maintain.

1 thru 3 above are a good analysis of the possibilities.

Vaughn


The questions are; How interested are people in sportpilot and will
the new planes really hit the market? I see #3 personally.