Night flying in the mountians in a cessna 150,

wrote:
On Sat, 26 Feb 2005 11:45:19 -0500, Matt Whiting
wrote:


wrote:


On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 17:16:35 -0800, Ron Garret
wrote:



That's true, but the longer you fly (or play the lottery) the closer
your probability of experiencing an engine failure (or a lottery win)
some time your career approaches 1.

Of course, you might have to fly/play for a *very* long time before that
probability actually gets close to 1, but sooner or later it will be 1
to any desired degree of accuracy. So the statement "fly long enough and
you will experience an engine failure" is pretty close to being true.
The question is how long is "long enough."

rg



This just ain't so.

Every time you play the lottery, it's like the first time you ever
played it.

It doesn't matter whether you won a jillion yesterday, or haven't won
in 50 years, or never played. The odds are exactly the same.

Yes, for every given play you are correct. However, Ron is correct that
in aggregate, someone who plays more often has a higher overall chance
of winning at some point than a person who only plays once in their
lifetime. At least I think that is the point he was making.


Matt



no, I think his point is that you are more likely to have an engine
failure tomorrow if you have flown 10,000 hours than if you have flown
10 hours.

I just re-read what he wrote above, and while it could have been
clearer, I still think he meant the probably in aggregate, not the
specific probability on the next flight. However, I'll let him weigh in
with what he meant. :-)

Matt