60 Minutes 4/17

"Dan Luke" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than 50k.
It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a new
car
than a small plane.

You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto
manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg. And
remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their models.

Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done.
I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under 50k
or
close to it.

And if frogs had wings...

Therein lies the main weakness in your argument. You imagine there is a
vast
pool of pent-up demand. Do you believe there are buyers for 1,000
Cherokee
180s/month? How about after the first, second years? Remember, over the
40
year production history of all models of the Cessna 172/175, only 43,000
have
been built. That's a long way from 1,000/mo.

[snip]

I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price
would drop quite a bit.

Maybe not, because they would still build them the same way at first.
Mobilization costs to handle the increased volume would have to be added
to
the margin made on each engine. The same thing goes for New Piper: if
they
suddenly had a backlog of 12,000 airplanes, they'd have to build new
factories and so would all their suppliers. It would take years to reach
the
capacity to meet that demand efficiently. And here's the rub: by the time
they had all this capacity was built, practically everyone who wanted a
new
180 would have one, and there wouldn't be enough new customers to pay off
the
enormous debt NP (and its suppliers) would have after they built all those
factories.

You can buy a brand new LS6 corvette engine for 5000.00 that tells me
they
are building it for around 1500.

Why does it tell you that? And what do you reckon the liability cost
component of an LS6 is compared to a Lyc. O-360?
--
Dan
C-172RG at BFM

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dan Luke" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than
50k.
It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat
aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a
new
car
than a small plane.

You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto
manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg.
And
remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their models.

Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done.

Where is the demand going to come from? There are not enough people
interested in flying their own planes to even come close to providing
manufacturers any economy of scale.

"Dave Stadt" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dan Luke" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than
50k.
It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat
aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a
new
car
than a small plane.

You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto
manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg.
And
remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their models.

Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done.

Where is the demand going to come from? There are not enough people
interested in flying their own planes to even come close to providing
manufacturers any economy of scale.

At that price it would replace all of the current old 150 to180 size
aircraft.
I was shocked when they were shipping seven 767 a month. I think it actually
got to 10 or 11 at one point. There is a lot of pilots in the world.
I flew my wife to a quilting shop in San Deigo this last week end. I asked
the lady there how many of the $20,000 quilting machines they sold last
month I thought she would say one or two, they sold 11.

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dave Stadt" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dan Luke" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than
50k.
It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat
aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a
new
car
than a small plane.

You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto
manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg.
And
remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their
models.

Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done.

Where is the demand going to come from? There are not enough people
interested in flying their own planes to even come close to providing
manufacturers any economy of scale.

At that price it would replace all of the current old 150 to180 size
aircraft.

An Arrow replace a 180? I don't think so.

"Dave Stadt" wrote in message
.. .

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dave Stadt" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dan Luke" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than
50k.
It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat
aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in
a
new
car
than a small plane.

You have confused the auto business with the airplane business.
Auto
manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg.
And
remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their
models.

Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done.

Where is the demand going to come from? There are not enough people
interested in flying their own planes to even come close to providing
manufacturers any economy of scale.

At that price it would replace all of the current old 150 to180 size
aircraft.

An Arrow replace a 180? I don't think so.
Your right I should of said fixed gear aircraft.

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dave Stadt" wrote in message
.. .

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dave Stadt" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dan Luke" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less
than
50k.
It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat
aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work
in
a
new
car
than a small plane.

You have confused the auto business with the airplane business.
Auto
manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft
mfg.
And
remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their
models.

Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done.

Where is the demand going to come from? There are not enough people
interested in flying their own planes to even come close to providing
manufacturers any economy of scale.

At that price it would replace all of the current old 150 to180 size
aircraft.

An Arrow replace a 180? I don't think so.
Your right I should of said fixed gear aircraft.

I rest my case.

"Dave Stadt" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less
than
50k.
It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat
aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work
in
a
new
car
than a small plane.

You have confused the auto business with the airplane business.
Auto
manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft
mfg.
And
remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their
models.

Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done.

Where is the demand going to come from? There are not enough
people
interested in flying their own planes to even come close to
providing
manufacturers any economy of scale.

At that price it would replace all of the current old 150 to180 size
aircraft.

An Arrow replace a 180? I don't think so.
Your right I should of said fixed gear aircraft.

I rest my case.

Boy, he certainly has done his market research.

Next he'll tell us how he can avoid FAA certification and parts STC's.

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dave Stadt" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dan Luke" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than
50k.
It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat
aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a
new
car
than a small plane.

You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto
manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg.
And
remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their
models.

Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done.

Where is the demand going to come from? There are not enough people
interested in flying their own planes to even come close to providing
manufacturers any economy of scale.

At that price it would replace all of the current old 150 to180 size
aircraft.

They can't sell them as it is at $16-25K and you're going to sell them ones
at twice the price?

I was shocked when they were shipping seven 767 a month. I think it
actually
got to 10 or 11 at one point. There is a lot of pilots in the world.
I flew my wife to a quilting shop in San Deigo this last week end. I asked
the lady there how many of the $20,000 quilting machines they sold last
month I thought she would say one or two, they sold 11.

As they say, "Context is everything".

Just guessing, I guess.