At last, the truth...

"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
. ..
"Gig 601XL Builder" wr.giacona@coxDOTnet wrote in
news:3isMe.1815$7f5.1413@okepread01:


"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
ups.com...
Check http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html for a quantitative
summary of trends. Private, commercial and instrument issuances are
down 12% since 2000. New aircraft shipments are down 10% since 2000.
Avgas sale is down almost 25% since 1999. OK, dying may be an
overstatement, but it is not looking rosy either. On the other hand,
this year's Airventure drew record crowds. I am not sure what to make
of that, but it is probably something similar to what happens in
spectator sports. Large number of people turn up to watch but very
few are able to participate.


Interesting....

Total Student Issuances
59,989
59,311
-1%
-678

Private Issuances
23,826
23,331
-2%
-495





You are comparing the 2004 numbers to 2003. I was comparing the 2004
numbers to the peak year (which in this case was 2002). The change in
private issuance is -18% in that case. Student pilot issuance is also -
11%.



Andrew, that is the worst job of sniping I've seen in a while. You sipped
everything I wrote which was in no way questioning your comparisons or even
your thesis.

Private Issuances
23,826
23,331
-2%
-495

You are comparing the 2004 numbers to 2003. I was
comparing
the 2004 numbers to the peak year (which in this case was
2002).

That was peak year as far back as AOPA went. It may be
relevant to the discussion that going back to 1971,
according to GAMA, the peak year was 1978, with 58,064 PP
Certificate issuances. And in that period (up through
1982), 8 of the years were over 50,000. It's not in AOPA's
interest to broadcast such things, I guess.

Fred F.

Gig 601XL Builder wrote:

Andrew, that is the worst job of sniping I've seen in a while. You sipped
everything I wrote which was in no way questioning your comparisons or even
your thesis.

His snipping is not so hot, either.

"Dave Butler" wrote in message
news:1124292929.497629@sj-nntpcache-3...
Gig 601XL Builder wrote:

Andrew, that is the worst job of sniping I've seen in a while. You sipped
everything I wrote which was in no way questioning your comparisons or
even your thesis.

His snipping is not so hot, either.

I was trying to save bandwidth.

Those "P's" cost money.

Huh? I did not snip anything. Your whole post was quoted in my reply.
Besides, I did not imply that you were questioning my statements. I was
simply clairfying why your numbers were different from mine.

"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
oups.com...
Huh? I did not snip anything. Your whole post was quoted in my reply.
Besides, I did not imply that you were questioning my statements. I was
simply clairfying why your numbers were different from mine.




===MY POST===
"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
ups.com...
Check http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html for a quantitative
summary of trends. Private, commercial and instrument issuances are
down 12% since 2000. New aircraft shipments are down 10% since 2000.
Avgas sale is down almost 25% since 1999. OK, dying may be an
overstatement, but it is not looking rosy either. On the other hand,
this year's Airventure drew record crowds. I am not sure what to make
of that, but it is probably something similar to what happens in
spectator sports. Large number of people turn up to watch but very few
are able to participate.


Interesting....

Total Student Issuances
59,989
59,311
-1%
-678

Private Issuances
23,826
23,331
-2%
-495




If you use these numbers you would get a pretty good feel for the number of
people who start and then don't get their license. If only 10% of the
drop-outs were retained that would be more than 3600 more private pilots.

==END MY POST==

==YOUR POST==
"Gig 601XL Builder" wr.giacona@coxDOTnet wrote in
news:3isMe.1815$7f5.1413@okepread01:


"Andrew Sarangan" wrote in message
ups.com...
Check http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html for a quantitative
summary of trends. Private, commercial and instrument issuances are
down 12% since 2000. New aircraft shipments are down 10% since 2000.
Avgas sale is down almost 25% since 1999. OK, dying may be an
overstatement, but it is not looking rosy either. On the other hand,
this year's Airventure drew record crowds. I am not sure what to make
of that, but it is probably something similar to what happens in
spectator sports. Large number of people turn up to watch but very
few are able to participate.


Interesting....

Total Student Issuances
59,989
59,311
-1%
-678

Private Issuances
23,826
23,331
-2%
-495





You are comparing the 2004 numbers to 2003. I was comparing the 2004
numbers to the peak year (which in this case was 2002). The change in
private issuance is -18% in that case. Student pilot issuance is also -
11%.

==END YOUR POST==

You removed what was essentially my entire post.

"Gig 601XL Builder" wrote:
[snip]
If you use these numbers you would get a pretty good
feel for the number of people who start and then don't
get their license. If only 10% of the drop-outs were
retained that would be more than 3600 more private
pilots.

Maybe I'm missing the point ... ???

There will *always* be a drop-out rate. The only way to say that
aviation has a high(er) drop-out rate is to compare it to other
activities with at least *some* expense, risk-factor, high mental demand
and time commitment similarities, where you train to fill requirements
and test for a license. Then compare those current numbers to two, five
or ten years ago to see if those other activities currently are
experiencing a higher drop-out rate, too. How high is the drop-out rate
for student sky-divers? What percentage of med school students actually
become doctors? The state of the economy could play a part in drop-out
trends, too.

Everyone here understands that learning to fly is a huge endeavor that
takes money, commitment, time, energy, and the support of whoever you
live with. It also requires access to a CFI that you work well with that
is available when you are, and reliable, well-maintained equipment. The
absence of any *ONE* of those elements is enough to make it impossible
to complete the training ... or even to continue after the rating is
achieved (except the presence of the CFI). That said, not everyone who
*has* all those elements sees it through to completion, either. Without
meaning to sound arrogant, I'm not sure there is, or should be, a way to
fix that.

Everyone here understands that learning to fly is a huge endeavor that
takes money, commitment, time, energy, and the support of whoever you
live with. It also requires access to a CFI that you work well with that
is available when you are, and reliable, well-maintained equipment. The
absence of any *ONE* of those elements is enough to make it impossible
to complete the training ... or even to continue after the rating is
achieved (except the presence of the CFI). That said, not everyone who
*has* all those elements sees it through to completion, either. Without
meaning to sound arrogant, I'm not sure there is, or should be, a way to
fix that.

This is, of course, all true. Heck, I know perfectly intelligent adults
that can't ride a bicycle -- so there's even a "drop-out rate" for that
seemingly universal endeavor.

That said, it is incumbent upon those of us who *have* made it through to
help those who haven't -- whether we want to or not. Why? Because at the
current rate of pilot population decline, it will be impossible to convince
municipalities (like Iowa City) to maintain an airport that is used by fewer
and fewer people.

We NEED to get every possible body into the cockpit, no matter what our
personal feelings about aviation may be, purely through enlightened
self-interest.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

On Thu, 18 Aug 2005 17:38:33 GMT, "Jay Honeck"
wrote in
tI3Ne.262425$_o.202397@attbi_s71::

Why? Because at the
current rate of pilot population decline, it will be impossible to convince
municipalities (like Iowa City) to maintain an airport that is used by fewer
and fewer people.

Another approach to convince municipalities to continue to operate
their airports is to make them aware of the FAA's imminent intent to
implement the Small Aircraft Transportation System*.

If the municipal airport is closed, and the property developed for
other purposes, it will be difficult or impossible for most
municipalities to re-establish a replacement airport once SATS is
implemented due to the lack of available real estate and NIMBY
resistance to airport operations. So closing the municipal airport
effectively shuts the municipality out of participation in the
aviation infrastructure of the 21st century.


* http://sats.larc.nasa.gov/main.html
http://ncam-sats.org/

The SATS benefits include improved standards of living and quality
of life for the nation in the new global economy. SATS technology
innovations will provide the nation with:

Economic development for communities of all sizes enabled by
localized air accessibility

Choices to bypass highway and hub-and-spoke transportation systems
delays

An efficient means for intermodal connectivity between small
airports and the global aviation system

An exportable transportation revolution with affordable "instant
infrastructure" for developing nations around the world

"Larry Dighera" wrote:
...
Another approach to convince municipalities to continue
to operate their airports is to make them aware of the
FAA's
imminent intent to implement the Small Aircraft
Transportation
System*.


The FAA doesn't implement beyond rule changes; the private
sector must implement. I'm trying to find a site which
discusses the economics and therefore market demand for SATS
type transportation for what it will cost the traveler. Do
you know of one?

Fred F.