Okay, so maybe flying *is* dangerous...

Gig 601XL Builder wrote:

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"Gig 601XL Builder" wr.giacona@coxDOTnet wrote in message
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The probability of a person having successfully made 9999
jumps surviving his 10000th jump is very different (and less)
than the probability of a person who has made no jumps,
successfully making 10000 safe jumps.

No, if the abolute odds of not surviving A jump are 1:10,000.
The odds of death are 1:10,000 on jump #1,#2,...#10000...
#20000. The dice don't have a memory.

Yes, but a jumper *does* have a memory.
A jumper cannot have a second jump *unless* the first jump was
successful, correct?

Above, I was comparing two jumpers, one who had 9999
jumps under his belt, and another who had 0 jumps under his
belt.

For the new jumper, his odds are 1:10,000 (if that is accurate)
for his first jump.

For the experienced jumper, his odds of surviving his *first*
jump are 100%, since he already survived his first jump. It
is no longer in the realm of "probability", it is now in the realm
of certainty, since it is in the unchangeable past.

To give another example that might make things more clear,
suppose we have two people:

1) One person is going to take a revolver, put one bullet in
the gun, and play "Russian Roulette" 1000 times.

2) A second person has already played (and survived) a
game of Russian Roulette 999 times, and only has to
play it for one more time.

The second person has a 5/6 chance of survival.

Do you honestly give the first person 5/6 chance of survival?
I would give him (without calculating precisely) somwhere
around 0.005 % chance of survival.

There is a difference.




The odds for an something to happen on any given roll,trigger pull or jump
don't change



True, but that isn't the issue at hand. The issue is surviving a SERIES
of future events, not just the next one.

Matt