Repercussions for people outside New Orleans

Really not sure who doesn't get it. When demand exceeds supply, prices
go up and the price of crude has been on a skyrocket.

The process is sequential - crude to refining to distribution. If any
single step is broken, output stop. The AP reports the Coast Guard says
20 oil rigs and platforms are missing in the Gulf of Mexico. Unless they
were drilling for ice cream, methinks there will soon be a crude oil
shortage.

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...
You don't get it. There is more loss of refining capacity along the
Gulf, than loss of production capacity in the Gulf. There is an
EXCESS of crude supply along the Gulf.

Mike
MU-2

"sfb" wrote in message news:TEFRe.28069$Bc2.4672@trnddc06...
Really not sure who doesn't get it. When demand exceeds supply, prices go
up and the price of crude has been on a skyrocket.

But crude HASN'T skyrocketed. Watching CNBC shows that crude is currently at
68.85 which isn't THAT much higher than it was last week. Crude hasn't gone
up (much), but the refining it has.

The post you cut says there is an excess of crude, but the price
increases over the last few months refute that unless the laws of supply
and demand have gone sour. Today's prices may be the lull before the
storm until the full extent of Kartina is known.

"N93332" wrote in message
...
"sfb" wrote in message
news:TEFRe.28069$Bc2.4672@trnddc06...
Really not sure who doesn't get it. When demand exceeds supply,
prices go up and the price of crude has been on a skyrocket.

But crude HASN'T skyrocketed. Watching CNBC shows that crude is
currently at 68.85 which isn't THAT much higher than it was last week.
Crude hasn't gone up (much), but the refining it has.

"sfb" wrote in message news:k0GRe.28079$Bc2.4142@trnddc06...
The post you cut says there is an excess of crude, but the price increases
over the last few months refute that unless the laws of supply and demand
have gone sour. Today's prices may be the lull before the storm until the
full extent of Kartina is known.

"N93332" wrote in message
...
"sfb" wrote in message
news:TEFRe.28069$Bc2.4672@trnddc06...
Really not sure who doesn't get it. When demand exceeds supply, prices
go up and the price of crude has been on a skyrocket.

But crude HASN'T skyrocketed. Watching CNBC shows that crude is currently
at 68.85 which isn't THAT much higher than it was last week. Crude hasn't
gone up (much), but the refining it has.




Yes, the price increase over the past few months is a function of global
supply/demand and the markets observation that higher prices aren't changing
consumers' behavior yet. The price action late last week and early this
week is a function of panic/speculation based on not knowing what the affect
of Katrina would be on production and refining. Now that it looks like the
affect on production will be modest and the effect of refining will be
significant, everything will start to readjust.

Mike
MU-2

Please explain how 20 platforms disappearing in the Gulf is only a
modest effect on production?

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
k.net...

"sfb" wrote in message
news:k0GRe.28079$Bc2.4142@trnddc06...
The post you cut says there is an excess of crude, but the price
increases over the last few months refute that unless the laws of
supply and demand have gone sour. Today's prices may be the lull
before the storm until the full extent of Kartina is known.

"N93332" wrote in message
...
"sfb" wrote in message
news:TEFRe.28069$Bc2.4672@trnddc06...
Really not sure who doesn't get it. When demand exceeds supply,
prices go up and the price of crude has been on a skyrocket.

But crude HASN'T skyrocketed. Watching CNBC shows that crude is
currently at 68.85 which isn't THAT much higher than it was last
week. Crude hasn't gone up (much), but the refining it has.




Yes, the price increase over the past few months is a function of
global supply/demand and the markets observation that higher prices
aren't changing consumers' behavior yet. The price action late last
week and early this week is a function of panic/speculation based on
not knowing what the affect of Katrina would be on production and
refining. Now that it looks like the affect on production will be
modest and the effect of refining will be significant, everything will
start to readjust.

Mike
MU-2

Most GOM production is natural gas not crude. Most of the "platforms" you
are referencing are actually drilling rigs not production platforms and I
haven't seen the number 20 "disappearing" anyway. Obviously this is all bad
stuff, but it is refined distillates and natural gas that are most affected.

Mike
MU-2





"sfb" wrote in message news:ZtGRe.31577$Uz2.21522@trnddc02...
Please explain how 20 platforms disappearing in the Gulf is only a modest
effect on production?

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
k.net...

"sfb" wrote in message
news:k0GRe.28079$Bc2.4142@trnddc06...
The post you cut says there is an excess of crude, but the price
increases over the last few months refute that unless the laws of supply
and demand have gone sour. Today's prices may be the lull before the
storm until the full extent of Kartina is known.

"N93332" wrote in message
...
"sfb" wrote in message
news:TEFRe.28069$Bc2.4672@trnddc06...
Really not sure who doesn't get it. When demand exceeds supply, prices
go up and the price of crude has been on a skyrocket.

But crude HASN'T skyrocketed. Watching CNBC shows that crude is
currently at 68.85 which isn't THAT much higher than it was last week.
Crude hasn't gone up (much), but the refining it has.




Yes, the price increase over the past few months is a function of global
supply/demand and the markets observation that higher prices aren't
changing consumers' behavior yet. The price action late last week and
early this week is a function of panic/speculation based on not knowing
what the affect of Katrina would be on production and refining. Now that
it looks like the affect on production will be modest and the effect of
refining will be significant, everything will start to readjust.

Mike
MU-2

"sfb" wrote

Please explain how 20 platforms disappearing in the Gulf is only a
modest effect on production?


Probably because there were about 4,000 to start with. At least
that is according to a map of platforms shown on CNN.

Bob Moore

"sfb" wrote in message news:TEFRe.28069$Bc2.4672@trnddc06...
Really not sure who doesn't get it. When demand exceeds supply, prices go
up and the price of crude has been on a skyrocket.

The process is sequential - crude to refining to distribution. If any
single step is broken, output stop. The AP reports the Coast Guard says 20
oil rigs and platforms are missing in the Gulf of Mexico. Unless they were
drilling for ice cream, methinks there will soon be a crude oil shortage.


There is a reason why crude is backing down now....it is because people are
starting to figure out that.the ONLY customers for crude are refineries.

It is thinking like yours that keeps me in business.

Mike
MU-2

sfb wrote:

Really not sure who doesn't get it. When demand exceeds supply, prices
go up and the price of crude has been on a skyrocket.

The process is sequential - crude to refining to distribution. If any
single step is broken, output stop. The AP reports the Coast Guard says
20 oil rigs and platforms are missing in the Gulf of Mexico. Unless they
were drilling for ice cream, methinks there will soon be a crude oil
shortage.

The LOOP system is offline due to power requirements. Once power is
restored and suitable destination is available the supertankers can
start offloading. That suppliments offshore production, does nothing for
increasing refining capacity...