More Sportplanes Hype

wrote in message
oups.com...
Gordon,

I think that there is alot of price gouging going on around the sport
pilot qualified planes. Have you checked the recent asking price of 415
C ercoupes? Last year you could buy all you wanted for 12 to $15,000.
They have one listed now at Barnstormers for $34,000 most are in the 22
to 27,000 range.

Frank M.Hitlaw
Jakarta,Indonesia


I think the phrase price gouging may be a little harsh. It's called supply
and demand. If LSA class planes are bringing a premium then the EAA was
right in their belief that there were a bunch of folks out there that didn't
want to or couldn't get physicals and still want to fly.

Hype or not, I think the problem is going to be self-correcting.

Thirty years ago, Kurt Vonnegut wrote a short story called "Harrison Bergeron,"
about a future where those with better-than-average capabilities had to be
handicapped to make them no more able than everyone else.

(http://instruct.westvalley.edu/lafave/hb.html)

This is the situation we're at with SLSAs. The restrictions of the category
limit the abilities of the aircraft so that there's no special difference in
performance between different LSAs.

After all, how are airplanes traditionally marketed?

1. "Our airplane cruises faster than the competition"
2. "Our airplane carries more payload than the competition"
3. "Our airplane has a longer range than the competition"
4. "Our airplane carries more passengers than the competition"

LSA marketers can't use #1...after all, they're limited to 120 knots, flat-out.

LSA marketers will find little use out of #2... gross weights are limited to
1320 pounds. Depending on how they can squirrel down the empty weight, they
might get a 50 or 100 pound improvement over the competition, but that's not
really enough to hang a marketing campaign on

LSA customers aren't likely to use range as a selection criteria. These planes
aren't really intended for long cross-countries.

And LSAs are limited to just two seats.

So...when no plane can exhibit superior performance over its competition, how
are buyers going to chose?

Simple. With little else to choose between competing LSAs, customers are going
to pick the one that sells at the lowest cost. Why buy a $90,000 SLSA when a
$85,000 one gives the same capability? Why buy that $85,000 one, when you can
get practically the same thing from another company for $80,000?

I realize things are slightly more complex. Some planes may be more attractive
in appearance, others might have more cabin room, some purchasers may be willing
to pay more for a more-familiar engine, some may want niche abilities such as
STOL, and there's of course the taildragger/milkstool decision. But my guess is
that a $20,000 lower selling price will overcome any casual preferences.

In short: the LSA market is going to be dominated by price. I suspect we're
going to see some pretty good sales going on by next Sun-N-Fun.

If a company *can* produce a $50,000 SLSA like Gordon insists is possible, they
will *own* the market. Without the ability to show a clear advantage for the
money, competitors will have to either match prices or get out of the business.

Ron Wanttaja

Ron Wanttaja wrote:
Hype or not, I think the problem is going to be self-correcting.

Thirty years ago, Kurt Vonnegut wrote a short story called "Harrison Bergeron,"
about a future where those with better-than-average capabilities had to be
handicapped to make them no more able than everyone else.

(http://instruct.westvalley.edu/lafave/hb.html)

This is the situation we're at with SLSAs. The restrictions of the category
limit the abilities of the aircraft so that there's no special difference in
performance between different LSAs.

After all, how are airplanes traditionally marketed?

1. "Our airplane cruises faster than the competition"
2. "Our airplane carries more payload than the competition"
3. "Our airplane has a longer range than the competition"
4. "Our airplane carries more passengers than the competition"

LSA marketers can't use #1...after all, they're limited to 120 knots, flat-out.

LSA marketers will find little use out of #2... gross weights are limited to
1320 pounds. Depending on how they can squirrel down the empty weight, they
might get a 50 or 100 pound improvement over the competition, but that's not
really enough to hang a marketing campaign on

LSA customers aren't likely to use range as a selection criteria. These planes
aren't really intended for long cross-countries.

And LSAs are limited to just two seats.

So...when no plane can exhibit superior performance over its competition, how
are buyers going to chose?

Simple. With little else to choose between competing LSAs, customers are going
to pick the one that sells at the lowest cost. Why buy a $90,000 SLSA when a
$85,000 one gives the same capability? Why buy that $85,000 one, when you can
get practically the same thing from another company for $80,000?

I realize things are slightly more complex. Some planes may be more attractive
in appearance, others might have more cabin room, some purchasers may be willing
to pay more for a more-familiar engine, some may want niche abilities such as
STOL, and there's of course the taildragger/milkstool decision. But my guess is
that a $20,000 lower selling price will overcome any casual preferences.

In short: the LSA market is going to be dominated by price. I suspect we're
going to see some pretty good sales going on by next Sun-N-Fun.

If a company *can* produce a $50,000 SLSA like Gordon insists is possible, they
will *own* the market. Without the ability to show a clear advantage for the
money, competitors will have to either match prices or get out of the business.

Ron Wanttaja

Ron,
I agree with everything that you have written here. I would add that
there are a couple of more areas where one LSA aircraft might differ
from another. Safety features and ease of maintenance.

Having been on the inside of this area for sometime, I am fairly
certain that we will never see factory-built, ready-to-fly, certified
S-LSA aircraft with modern engines in the $50,000 price range. The
fact that the engine itself costs $20,000.00 (firewall forward with
equipment and accessories) just about makes it impossible to reach that
price point.

Gordon's comparison to the Part 23 certified American Champion is out
of order. The key point that he missed is that you cannot fly the
Champion without a medical or with a Sport Pilot license.

Regards,

Rick Pellicciotti
LightSportFlying.com

On 28 Sep 2005 12:24:08 -0700, "rpellicciotti"
wrote:
Ron,
I agree with everything that you have written here. I would add that
there are a couple of more areas where one LSA aircraft might differ
from another. Safety features and ease of maintenance.

Having been on the inside of this area for sometime, I am fairly
certain that we will never see factory-built, ready-to-fly, certified
S-LSA aircraft with modern engines in the $50,000 price range. The
fact that the engine itself costs $20,000.00 (firewall forward with
equipment and accessories) just about makes it impossible to reach that
price point.



I guess my question to you is why a 1930's technology engine built
using consensus standards is going to cost $20,000?





Jim

http://www.unconventional-wisdom.org

Jimbob wrote:


I guess my question to you is why a 1930's technology engine built
using consensus standards is going to cost $20,000?


Because their not built using consensus standards, they're built using
1930's technology. That is a guy standing in front of a maching,
grinding and cutting parts.

I choked when I read in an AOPA magazine, just a couple years ago, that
Lycoming was harping and stroking themselves for buying some CNC
equipment. That is, arguably the leader in aviation engines is just now
moving up to the quality control and automation that the even the most
basic machine shops expect.

--
This is by far the hardest lesson about freedom. It goes against
instinct, and morality, to just sit back and watch people make
mistakes. We want to help them, which means control them and their
decisions, but in doing so we actually hurt them (and ourselves)."

On Thu, 29 Sep 2005 02:17:12 GMT, Ernest Christley
wrote:

Jimbob wrote:


I guess my question to you is why a 1930's technology engine built
using consensus standards is going to cost $20,000?


Because their not built using consensus standards, they're built using
1930's technology. That is a guy standing in front of a maching,
grinding and cutting parts.

I choked when I read in an AOPA magazine, just a couple years ago, that
Lycoming was harping and stroking themselves for buying some CNC
equipment. That is, arguably the leader in aviation engines is just now
moving up to the quality control and automation that the even the most
basic machine shops expect.

Ugh, That's scary.

Without the barriers to entry, i.e. FAA certifcation, I should expect
some competitors to enter the market. More competition means pressure
to use more effective means of manufacturing. These proces should
drop.


Jim

http://www.unconventional-wisdom.org

I was referring to "modern engines". The Rotax 912 S, 100HP engine
along with the exhaust system, radiator, and other bits costs nearly
$20,000.00. That only leaves you $30,000 for everything else. The
materials for a small, 2 place, all metal airplane from the firewall
back costs nearly $20,000.00 (aluminum is going through the roof
prompting Boeing to switch to carbon for the 787). That only leaves
$10,000.00 for labor and profit. Doesn't look likely to be doable.

Rick

"rpellicciotti" wrote in message
oups.com...
The materials for a small, 2 place, all metal airplane from the firewall
back costs nearly $20,000.00

Reference please??? All of Van's two-place kit prices are below that number.
Some artful scrounging should drop it to $10,000. Buying in volume should do
the same.

Rich S.

Rich S. wrote:
"rpellicciotti" wrote in message
oups.com...

The materials for a small, 2 place, all metal airplane from the firewall
back costs nearly $20,000.00


Reference please??? All of Van's two-place kit prices are below that number.
Some artful scrounging should drop it to $10,000. Buying in volume should do
the same.

I didn't check the other Vans prices, but the cheapest RV-7 price stacks
up to $17,405 including fuel senders, static system, and crating, but
NOT shipping. That number also includes some stuff that is technically
FW-forward (eg cowling, spinner, engine mount) but I'll leave those in
because they're still part of the airframe kit. Even building it in
Van's front yard and leaving out the FW-forward bits, you aren't going
to get down to $10,000.

And what do you call 'materials'? Does it just include the airframe
parts? How about all the other stuff you actually need that's not
included in Vans price: paint, instruments, electrical system, seat
belts, upholstery, avionics?

Maybe you could buy enough paint for $1,000, and ASI/ALT/Compass for
another $500. Another $500 for a battery, fuses, wire, ignition
switches. Seat belts for $160. Recycle some foam from an old sofa,
handheld radio for $200.

Total price = 17405+2360 = 19765 plus shipping. If you live within 50
miles of Vans factory, you can get the materials for under $20,000...
and spend 5 years of your life to build the crappiest RV-7 in the entire
world.

Rich,
To get a true picture of the cost of a Van's kit, you have to add the
price of the kit and the finishing kit together. I have worked closely
with Aerostar in Romania (they also build the Yak-52) to get the
Festival S-LSA built and certified. I have seen the invoices for the
materials that were purchased to build the first 10 airplanes. That is
where my numbers come from.

I attended a meeting at Boeing back in February. There, an official of
the 787 program gave us a briefing on the airplane. He said that they
could build most of the aircraft in carbon fiber for less that it would
cost to build in aluminum.

That said, I encourage anyone who can design, build, certify and market
a $50,000.00 S-LSA while making a profit to do so. It will do nothing
but advance aviation (the intent of the Sport Pilot rule to begin
with). If one only sold these airplanes to the people on this list
that have stated they would buy one if it were $50,000.00, you could
stay busy for a couple of years.

Rick Pellicciotti