Fix the high cost [Was:] High Cost of Sportplanes

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shrike,

Interesting analysis. As one of the few who gets it, I think you can
appreciate why I chose the open source solution to publishing the data.
Any use of the community data is acceptance of an as-is contract where
any derivative works may not be patented or hoarded as trade secrets.
This also tends to insulate the technology publishers reasonably well
from litigation.

It is important to note that the point of this project is rather narrow.
I am not advocating the development of a specific set of plans for a
completed aircraft structure, but rather a set of procedures to set up a
shop to build such a structure in the cheapest manner. A quick analysis
on my part (followed up by data from other members on this list)
identified labor costs as being the #1 largest cost in pricing an
aircraft structure for sale in the LSA or small GA market. Granted,
there are other issues such as political, high engine prices, high
instrument prices, high materials prices, FBO desirability, etc. that I
am not addressing here, however, one must start somewhere.

Its even worth noting that should labor costs magically go to zero, the
cost of a commercially made aircraft would still probably not go below
50K USD.
Airframe + avionics + engine + labor Insurance Profit Overhead
kit basic 912 Magic
20000 + 4000 + 16000 + ( 0 * 45 ) +10000 + 10000 + 1000 = 61000


As you can see, even getting the largest component down to zero still
doesn't get you an airplane as cheap as an SUV ( for obvious reasons ),
it does however, get you to the point where you can start to compete
with the 69K LSA commercial planes from eastern europe today. At this
point, you are free to start chipping away at the other high price items
like the engine. For instance, an 89hp Jabiru can be had for 11k, thus
saving 5K from the 912 price tag.
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"Evan Carew" wrote:
Its even worth noting that should labor costs magically go
to zero, the cost of a commercially made aircraft would still
probably not go below 50K USD.

Airframe + avionics + engine + labor Insurance Profit
Overhead
kit basic 912 Magic
20000 + 4000 + 16000 + ( 0 * 45 ) +10000 + 10000 + 1000
= 61000


Woah there, overhead of mere $1,000/unit is not possible. At 100
units annually, pretty good if there's many competitors, that will
be only $100K. That's for manufacturing space and equipment,
warranty costs, legal, accounting, information tech, administrative
space, insurance other than product liability, taxes other than
income, phone, utilites, janitorial, etc., etc. And where's your
marketing costs? Advertising, promotional literature and videos,
and say $50K total cost for just one sales guy, who'll be one busy
beaver at 100 annual units. Figure $10K to go to AirVenture; wanna
go to all the others? And gotta demo plane?

Fred F.

Well said. A lot of people on this list have some idea what the
materials cost to build and airplane but they have no idea what it
takes to run a business. A lot of people have accused the LSA
manufacturers of price gouging and getting rich. My experience so far
in this business is that a lot of people are making money off of LSA
manufacturers.

Air show exhibit space sellers, promotional video producers, brochure
designers and printers, magazine advertising departments, logoed
clothing makers and the companies that sell the raw materials and
components for aircraft are the ones making all the money right now.
LSA manufacturers are spending much more than they are making at this
point (it is called investing for those of you in Rio Linda). At some
point, one hopes the income will exceed the outgo. Time will tell.

Rick Pellicciotti
LightSportFlying.com

Evan Carew wrote:
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shrike,

Interesting analysis. As one of the few who gets it, I think you can
appreciate why I chose the open source solution to publishing the data.
Any use of the community data is acceptance of an as-is contract where
any derivative works may not be patented or hoarded as trade secrets.
This also tends to insulate the technology publishers reasonably well
from litigation.

Sometimes the contract is the end of the negotiation. Sometimes it is
the beginning. A hold harmless agreement; though common in end user
licenses; are trounced by safety law. In most states you cannot legally
sign away your own right to safety. Consequently you'll find many
software agreements specically disclaim the use of the software in
situations requiring fault tolerance. For example, MS would really you
rather NOT use Winblows to run say a pacemaker.

So while the open source license protects the right to redistribution
it only marginally protects the authors. In the case of Open
Engineering an aircraft that exposure is amplified.


It is important to note that the point of this project is rather narrow.
I am not advocating the development of a specific set of plans for a
completed aircraft structure, but rather a set of procedures to set up a
shop to build such a structure in the cheapest manner. A quick analysis
on my part (followed up by data from other members on this list)
identified labor costs as being the #1 largest cost in pricing an
aircraft structure for sale in the LSA or small GA market. Granted,
there are other issues such as political, high engine prices, high
instrument prices, high materials prices, FBO desirability, etc. that I
am not addressing here, however, one must start somewhere.


Yes you do have to start somewhere. Try Excel, and reading the
certification requirements in the FARS. (Available online) All the
stuff your talking about will be defined more by the financial model of
the company, than it will by the aircraft selected. The bird has to fit
into the budget, the budget doesn't fit the bird. (Unless your on a
government contract)

To reiterate the aircraft is the _small_ part. And while everybody is
enthusiastic about aircraft technology, very few people have the
patience to sit in front of a spread sheet or a lawbook and fidget
until they understand those issues.

Labor _hours_ can be drastically reduced with modern tooling, there is
no question about that. Whether manufacturing _costs_ can be is a
different issue. You have to figure land labor and capital as a
percentage of projected revenues to be able to tell whether the new
tooling makes sense.

Stop thinking about the plane. Start thinking about the financial model
that supports the project. Then start thinking about the people who
wouldn't want you to succeed and what they would do to prevent you from
succeeding. (The people you would put out of business) That will give
you a picture of the bull you are casually talking about riding. Once
you have that picture ask youself whether you're still interested in
riding it.

This whole thread is really about defining what constitutes "barrier to
entry" in the light aircraft market. There is a whole science involved
in doing what your doing. I think the reason your getting a lot of
attitude is that your talking about financial issues in a engineering
forum. Really you should start addressing your questions to somebody
who understands business finance. You've got the cart before the ox
IMHO.

If your interested in open-sourcing and distributing a free aircraft
design optimized for modern tooling I totally applaud. Then you best
bet is to set up a non-profit to do that (Can be done online for
~$250), and start soliciting help. Once you have one or two designers
and robot guy on board, start soliciting the automotive manufacturers
to lend you an old robot to test your theories. Write a few grant
proposals. They might just give you one to write it off as a donation.
If you associated the project with a University you'd probably get a
lot better response.

You can do it! But right now your barking up the wrong tree. Come back
to this forum when you have questions about the plane, and not about
the financial issues. Right now your just ****ing people off.

-Matt

SNIP

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shrike,

I'm not trying to attract flames here, but this is exactly an
engineering issue. Other issues having to do with entry into the market
are not part of this discussion. There are already other companies in
this market who could choose to use this technology to reduce their
costs for instance. The point is NOT to define a new viable company with
a new process, but rather to inform those already in the business, or
those just getting started of at least one cheap process. In addition,
since we aren't defining an actual airframe, but rather a process,
liability issues will be minimized.
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Evan Carew wrote:
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shrike,

I'm not trying to attract flames here, but this is exactly an
engineering issue. Other issues having to do with entry into the market
are not part of this discussion. There are already other companies in
this market who could choose to use this technology to reduce their
costs for instance. The point is NOT to define a new viable company with
a new process, but rather to inform those already in the business,
or
those just getting started of at least one cheap process. In addition,
since we aren't defining an actual airframe, but rather a process,
liability issues will be minimized.
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Did you forget to take your meds today? Your either a troll or your
about 16yo. In either case your playing grabass. I'm sorry I ever tried
to help you.

-Matt