Gas Prices -- Help at last?

"Matt Barrow" wrote in message
...

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...

"Matt Barrow" wrote in message
...

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...

"Matt Barrow" wrote in message
...


Maybe because the US imports refined FINISHED products (much more
costly to buy as well as transport).

Not really true. The US only imports about 14% of its gasoline and US
gasoline production is up *not* down as your article implies.

The article doesn't make a distinction about type of fuel, only refinery
capacity. Also, the gasoline to other fuels mix has increased, correct?
I suspect the US produces much less heating oil than in the past, most
heating being done with natural gas or electric.

Total distillates (diesel, heating oil, kerosene) refined in the US have
increased 80% over the past 23yrs.

And gasoline is up 25% (6600-8800Mbbl).

Yes, everything is up, gasoline, diesel, heating oil, kerosese but people
say that enviornmental regulation has prevented capacity expansion. It
simply isn't true.


As well, what amount of finished product did we import in the past?
AIUI, it was zero until the past few years.
--
Gasoline imports have increased over time, but still remain at low
levels.

14% of US usage.

Yes and it is important to recognize that if oil exporters build refineries
to capture downstream revenue and export gasoline (instead of crude) that
expanding US refining capacity accomplishes nothing. If the Candians start
exporting lumber instead of logs should the US build more sawmills? It is
the same thing.


When you take all the facts together, it seems that refining capacity
over the past 25yrs has been driven by economics not regulation.

I never said otherwise. I also never said our capacity was down. What I'd
said was that capacity growth was consrained, that we were becoming too
centralized in our geographic dispersment (see the results of Hurricane
Katrina).

You may not have said it, but you presented an article that claims that
refining capacity is down from 18.6MM bbl to 16.9MM bbl. I agree that *this
quarter* we are too geographically concentrated but these are supposed to be
50yr storms. The refineries are on the Gulf Coast because that is where
imported crude arrives and land is cheap. It makes sense to locate the
refineries in what are the best locations the overwhelming majority of the
time instead of moving them somewhere else.


The "lack of refining capacity"

That's your point, not mine nor the point of the IBD article. The point is
that our capacity is constrained and cannot grow enough to meet growing
demand.


The article is allegedly the source of the reduction of refining capacity
from 18.6 to 16.9

hysteria is simply the latest thing for pundits to talk about.

The article I linked to was hardly hysterical. The hysteric were from Reid
and Waxman coming from the other direction. As much, I would hardly say
those two bozos had any grasp of the situation.

The conservatives want to blame the enviornmentalists and the liberals
want to blame the greedy oil companies. Hopefully the rules will remain
unchanged and economics will continue to drive decision making. Refiners
are flush with cash and don't need taxpayer handouts either directly or
indirectly through relaxed regulation. Putting things in perspective: we
had two "fifty year" storms in two weeks than directly hit major refining
areas, having a huge reaction seems unwarranted. One factor that gets
ignored is that, if you build new refineries, each one adds huge amounts
of capacity. It would only take a few new refineries to create a
refining glut.

Well, let's let the market decide how much is enough, okay?

I'm for that. I expect to see ongoing increases in capacity as we have
every decade for the past 100yrs.

Mike
MU-2

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
k.net...

"Matt Barrow" wrote in message
...

And gasoline is up 25% (6600-8800Mbbl).

Yes, everything is up, gasoline, diesel, heating oil, kerosese but people
say that enviornmental regulation has prevented capacity expansion. It
simply isn't true.

Well, the article says no such thing regarding EXPANSION, though it does
mention the $$billions spent over the last ten years complying with
environmental regulations at EXISTING refineries.



14% of US usage.

Yes and it is important to recognize that if oil exporters build
refineries to capture downstream revenue and export gasoline (instead of
crude) that expanding US refining capacity accomplishes nothing. If the
Candians start exporting lumber instead of logs should the US build more
sawmills? It is the same thing.

Well when lumber becomes much more dangerous and expensive to transport they
should. Also, if EPA regs forbid making lumber, then what?




You may not have said it, but you presented an article that claims that
refining capacity is down from 18.6MM bbl to 16.9MM bbl. I agree that
*this quarter* we are too geographically concentrated but these are
supposed to be 50yr storms. The refineries are on the Gulf Coast because
that is where imported crude arrives and land is cheap. It makes sense to
locate the refineries in what are the best locations the overwhelming
majority of the time instead of moving them somewhere else.

And how many are hitchhiking on the San Andreas fault?


The "lack of refining capacity"

That's your point, not mine nor the point of the IBD article. The point
is that our capacity is constrained and cannot grow enough to meet
growing demand.


The article is allegedly the source of the reduction of refining capacity
from 18.6 to 16.9

Pardon? What is the source of the reduction?



Well, let's let the market decide how much is enough, okay?

I'm for that. I expect to see ongoing increases in capacity as we have
every decade for the past 100yrs.

Well, if # of refineries had slipped 55% and total capacity has slipped 10%,
that trend is no longer in place.

If the trend continues, in 100 years we will have one refinery. Just how
much can you expand production?

Well, if # of refineries had slipped 55% and total capacity has slipped
10%, that trend is no longer in place.

If the trend continues, in 100 years we will have one refinery. Just how
much can you expand production?


I don't buy the story that capacity has slipped 10%.

Mike
MU-2

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
k.net...
Well, if # of refineries had slipped 55% and total capacity has slipped
10%, that trend is no longer in place.

If the trend continues, in 100 years we will have one refinery. Just how
much can you expand production?


I don't buy the story that capacity has slipped 10%.


Then site some CAPACITY numbers, not OUTPUT numbers.

Do you comprehend the manufacturing process?

Do you comprehend percentage of CAPACITY?

Do you comprehend TRENDLINES?

Geeezz

What kind of capacity?

Gasoline? From what type of crude?
Heating Oil/Kerosene/Diesel? from what type of crude?
Cracking capacity?

It is pretty clear that you are totally ignorant of the energy industry and
the whole refining process. The fact that you are even asking the questions
indicates that you don't know where the facts are even located or which
facts are important. You are an employee of a *ucking real estate
developer, what the *uck do you know about petroleum or its refining? How
many oil company CEOs do you talk to in an average month? How long ago did
you see the current commodity price increases coming? How much did you
profit from it? An answer rounded to the nearest $10 million will do.

Mike
MU-2


"Matt Barrow" wrote in message
...

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
k.net...
Well, if # of refineries had slipped 55% and total capacity has slipped
10%, that trend is no longer in place.

If the trend continues, in 100 years we will have one refinery. Just how
much can you expand production?


I don't buy the story that capacity has slipped 10%.


Then site some CAPACITY numbers, not OUTPUT numbers.

Do you comprehend the manufacturing process?

Do you comprehend percentage of CAPACITY?

Do you comprehend TRENDLINES?

Geeezz

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
k.net...
What kind of capacity?

Gasoline? From what type of crude?
Heating Oil/Kerosene/Diesel? from what type of crude?
Cracking capacity?

It is pretty clear that you are totally ignorant of the energy industry
and the whole refining process.

At least I know the difference between capacity and output. Some industry
genius you are if you can't tell the difference.


The fact that you are even asking the questions indicates that you don't
know where the facts are even located or which facts are important. You
are an employee of a *ucking real estate developer, what the *uck do you
know about petroleum or its refining?

No, ****tard, I AM THE REAL ESTATE DEVELOPER.


How many oil company CEOs do you talk to in an average month? How long
ago did you see the current commodity price increases coming? How much
did you profit from it? An answer rounded to the nearest $10 million will
do.


Ahhh...the spin from he master of the non-sequitur when he's caught with his
pants down.

Blow is out your ass; you haven't made even a single relevant point. What
you've done is jump off on irrelevant tangents , blow context and try to
cover your ass.

And Mike, your attempts at argument from intimidation don't work on me no
matter how loud you beat on your chest.