GA _is_ safer than some modes of transport. Was: Tragedy

Unreal. So obviously and patently dishonest to use "vehicle miles (or
KM)." The AOPA could use someone with your statistical abilities.

More on "some measures."

From the AOPA's 2004 Nall report:
1 out of 413 pilots involved in an accident in 2003.
1 out of 2009 active pilots involved in a fatal accident.

Now, try to follow along here Jim. If 1 out of 2009 active drivers in the
USA were involved in a fatal accident, the carnage from car accidents would
be in the MILLIONS.

Still not convinced because of "some measures" that suggest GA flying is
safer than walking, here's an excerpt from your very own Phillip
Greenspun.

"How dangerous is flying? There are 16 fatal accidents per million hours
of general aviation. It is fairly safe to assume that when a plane crashes
and someone dies, everyone on board dies. By contrast, the death rate for
automobile driving is roughly 1.7 deaths per 100 million vehicle-miles.
Car crashes don't always kill everyone in the car so let's use this
statistic as provided, which is for an individual traveling in a car
rather than for the entire car. So considering that the average airplane
accomplishes a groundspeed of at least 100 miles per hour, those million
hours of flight push the occupants of the plane over more than 100 million
miles of terrain. Comparing 16 fatal accidents to the 1.7 rate for driving,
we find that flying is no more than 10 times as dangerous per mile of
travel. And since most accidents happen on takeoff or landing, a modern
fast light airplane traveling a longish distance might be comparable in
safety to a car.

We can also look at safety per hour. This makes sense for recreational
pilots who have the alternative of spending a few hours flying around or
spending those hours taking a scenic drive. If the average speed of car
travel is 50 miles per hour, those 1.7 deaths occur in 2 million hours of
driving. This makes general aviation, with 16 deaths per 1 million hours,
roughly 20 times as dangerous per hour than driving."

Unfortunately, he didn't compare GA flying to walking around.

"Skylune" wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
Now, try to follow along here Jim. If 1 out of 2009 active drivers in the
USA were involved in a fatal accident, the carnage from car accidents
would
be in the MILLIONS.

No, you're exaggerating by an order of magnitude. Do the arithmetic.

--Gary

OK. I concede that one. It wouldn't be in the millions. But I would
venture, without looking into it, that far less than 1 of 2009 drivers is
involved in a fatal accident each year.

In round numbers, there are about 200 million licensed drivers in the
USA, so a rate of 1-in-2000 would result in about 100,000 individuals
being involved in a fatal accident each year. There are actually about
40,000 fatal automobile accidents per year in the USA, with something
like 42,000 people killed. If you include licensed drivers who are
involved in these crashes but who are not killed (say, those driving
the other vehicle, or those who are passengers) and if you correct for
non-active drivers (whatever that means!) you won't be as far from the
100,000 figure as you would at first think. Now, this isn't a very
indicative metric, as hours flown or miles traveled are far more useful
than elapsed time, but it shows that you should be a little careful
before you make assumptions about these things...

The underlying cause of most accidents (land sea or air):

http://www.lookatentertainment.com/v/v-1182.htm

The underlying cause of most accidents (land sea or air):

http://www.lookatentertainment.com/v/v-1182.htm

Sweet!

:-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"How dangerous is flying? There are 16 fatal accidents per million hours
of general aviation.

Where did that number come from?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
news:aJx5f.444290$x96.189556@attbi_s72...
"How dangerous is flying? There are 16 fatal accidents per million hours
of general aviation.

Where did that number come from?

According to the Nall Report, the actual number is 11 or 12 fatal accidents
per million hours of GA flights (averaging just under two deaths per fatal
accident).

--Gary

Where did that number come from?

According to the Nall Report, the actual number is 11 or 12 fatal
accidents per million hours of GA flights (averaging just under two deaths
per fatal accident).

Okay, you statistic gurus, figure this out for me, please?

If, say, I end up flying 4000 hours in my flying life, using your figures
(above), what are my odd of dying in a fatal crash?

Is it possible for you to factor out accidents caused by fuel starvation,
flying into IMC, and flying at night? If so, what are my odds then?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"