Making the safe decision (AKA "I hate AIRMET ZULU")

Absolutely you made the right decision. And you are around to make the
second guess.

You bring up a valid point as well, with your wife liking to know where
she is going to be staying and that you have the situation well in hand.
That is taking her feelings well into the equation and will keep her a
happy passenger for years to come.



Paul Tomblin wrote:
In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:

An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.


The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 22:19:12 +0000 (UTC), (Paul
Tomblin) wrote:

In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:
An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.

The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.

For sure you made the correct decision. It's a losing game to try to
second guess yourself, especially with ice.

If you've got clear cut outs, then it may be worth a try. That usually
means MEA's above the freezing level, which was NOT the case in your
situation. It might also mean an a/c that you know can get above the
clouds; thin layers; etc.

But in the lee of the Great Lakes one year I picked up enough ice to drop
my IAS by about 30 kts. Those lakes are great ice-makers -- better than my
refrigerator! You'll do well to treat them with respect.


Ron (EPM) (N5843Q, Mooney M20E) (CP, ASEL, ASES, IA)

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 22:19:12 +0000 (UTC),
(Paul Tomblin) wrote:

In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:
An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.

The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.

A few years back we were headed for Boulder Colorado and Jefco (BJC).
We had diverted tot he south to avoid some heavy stuff to the north.
This added a good 250 miles to the trip.

We got a late start as my wife had to work in the morning and we
weren't out of 3BS until near 2:30 or 3:00 PM.

Other than passing through a line of thunderstorms just getting
started and at least 3 or 4 hours before they were to be in the area
the trip went fine. Well other than the 40 knot head wind. We
decided to overnight in the Topeka area as I really didn't want to be
getting into the mountain area after dark.

The next morning found storms forecast for the entire route so we went
airport hopping. Topeka to Salina where we topped off the tanks and
had lunch. Things were improving by 1:00 or so and we were off to
Hays KS where we spent another hour or so before heading to Goodland.

We/I had hopped to go straight to Boulder, but some towering Q had
slid off the mountains. We were close to 12,000 over Goodland, but no
way were we going to get over or around the stuff to the west. It was
just getting bigger and meaner. So we sat on the ground for a while
at Goodland.

A 182 headed out IFR while I was filing a VFR flight plan. (Below the
clouds it was crystal clear) so we headed out with an eye on the map
and every airport we passed with the closest to the south always in
mind. (the weather got better fast going south). We stayed under the
clouds, but by the time we passed Lyman CO, I was beginning to think
about heading south to find higher ceilings. Just as I was about to
turn the ceiling went up abruptly and visibility was a good 30 to 50
miles. Of course all we could see were those BIG BLACK TOWERING
Cumulus.

After we passed the south edge of the old Stapelton Airport visibility
started getting a bit stinky, but was still legal. Denver APP was
going to turn us loose, but I asked if we could hang around with them
for a while longer as it was getting kinda stinky around there. They
were kind enough to have us stay on frequency until we were
recognizing landmarks in the BJC area (Rocky Flats)

It was airport to airport and always watching for a way out,
just-in-case.

It's far better to err on the safe side than find yourself in deep
doggie do.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

Roger wrote:

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 22:19:12 +0000 (UTC),
(Paul Tomblin) wrote:


In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:

An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.

The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.


A few years back we were headed for Boulder Colorado and Jefco (BJC).
We had diverted tot he south to avoid some heavy stuff to the north.
This added a good 250 miles to the trip.

Cool! Nothing like having a good reason to do some extra flying!! :-)

Matt

On Wed, 26 Oct 2005 17:29:06 -0400, Roger
wrote:

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 22:19:12 +0000 (UTC),
(Paul Tomblin) wrote:

In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:
An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.

The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.

A few years back we were headed for Boulder Colorado and Jefco (BJC).
We had diverted tot he south to avoid some heavy stuff to the north.
This added a good 250 miles to the trip.

We got a late start as my wife had to work in the morning and we
weren't out of 3BS until near 2:30 or 3:00 PM.

Other than passing through a line of thunderstorms just getting
started and at least 3 or 4 hours before they were to be in the area
the trip went fine. Well other than the 40 knot head wind. We
decided to overnight in the Topeka area as I really didn't want to be
getting into the mountain area after dark.

The next morning found storms forecast for the entire route so we went
airport hopping. Topeka to Salina where we topped off the tanks and
had lunch. Things were improving by 1:00 or so and we were off to
Hays KS where we spent another hour or so before heading to Goodland.

We/I had hopped to go straight to Boulder, but some towering Q had
slid off the mountains. We were close to 12,000 over Goodland, but no
way were we going to get over or around the stuff to the west. It was
just getting bigger and meaner. So we sat on the ground for a while
at Goodland.

A 182 headed out IFR while I was filing a VFR flight plan. (Below the
clouds it was crystal clear) so we headed out with an eye on the map
and every airport we passed with the closest to the south always in
mind. (the weather got better fast going south). We stayed under the
clouds, but by the time we passed Lyman CO, I was beginning to think
about heading south to find higher ceilings. Just as I was about to
turn the ceiling went up abruptly and visibility was a good 30 to 50
miles. Of course all we could see were those BIG BLACK TOWERING
Cumulus.

After we passed the south edge of the old Stapelton Airport visibility
started getting a bit stinky, but was still legal. Denver APP was
going to turn us loose, but I asked if we could hang around with them
for a while longer as it was getting kinda stinky around there. They
were kind enough to have us stay on frequency until we were
recognizing landmarks in the BJC area (Rocky Flats)

It was airport to airport and always watching for a way out,
just-in-case.

It's far better to err on the safe side than find yourself in deep
doggie do.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com


Sounds like a well thought out flight. I like it when a plan comes
together. I guess your wife can deal with that sort of uncertainty.
That's a good thing.


Ron (EPM) (N5843Q, Mooney M20E) (CP, ASEL, ASES, IA)

On Wed, 26 Oct 2005 20:47:16 -0400, Ron Rosenfeld
wrote:

On Wed, 26 Oct 2005 17:29:06 -0400, Roger
wrote:

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 22:19:12 +0000 (UTC),
(Paul Tomblin) wrote:

In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:
An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.

The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.

A few years back we were headed for Boulder Colorado and Jefco (BJC).
We had diverted tot he south to avoid some heavy stuff to the north.
This added a good 250 miles to the trip.

We got a late start as my wife had to work in the morning and we
weren't out of 3BS until near 2:30 or 3:00 PM.

Other than passing through a line of thunderstorms just getting
started and at least 3 or 4 hours before they were to be in the area
the trip went fine. Well other than the 40 knot head wind. We
decided to overnight in the Topeka area as I really didn't want to be
getting into the mountain area after dark.

The next morning found storms forecast for the entire route so we went
airport hopping. Topeka to Salina where we topped off the tanks and
had lunch. Things were improving by 1:00 or so and we were off to
Hays KS where we spent another hour or so before heading to Goodland.

We/I had hopped to go straight to Boulder, but some towering Q had
slid off the mountains. We were close to 12,000 over Goodland, but no
way were we going to get over or around the stuff to the west. It was
just getting bigger and meaner. So we sat on the ground for a while
at Goodland.

A 182 headed out IFR while I was filing a VFR flight plan. (Below the
clouds it was crystal clear) so we headed out with an eye on the map
and every airport we passed with the closest to the south always in
mind. (the weather got better fast going south). We stayed under the
clouds, but by the time we passed Lyman CO, I was beginning to think
about heading south to find higher ceilings. Just as I was about to
turn the ceiling went up abruptly and visibility was a good 30 to 50
miles. Of course all we could see were those BIG BLACK TOWERING
Cumulus.

After we passed the south edge of the old Stapelton Airport visibility
started getting a bit stinky, but was still legal. Denver APP was
going to turn us loose, but I asked if we could hang around with them
for a while longer as it was getting kinda stinky around there. They
were kind enough to have us stay on frequency until we were
recognizing landmarks in the BJC area (Rocky Flats)

It was airport to airport and always watching for a way out,
just-in-case.

It's far better to err on the safe side than find yourself in deep
doggie do.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com


Sounds like a well thought out flight. I like it when a plan comes
together. I guess your wife can deal with that sort of uncertainty.
That's a good thing.

She does a lot of bicycle riding on tours. Weather uncertainty, break
downs, and plain old mishaps are a way of life. When we say we are
headed for Colorado it may be straight line, by way of Montana, or
Texas. We may get there in one day or three days. Albeit, I have to
admit she wasn't real thrilled when we were 90 degreed in the
turbulence just south of Stapelton.

The trip home, which I've written about several times, had us stopped
at Marysville KS due to weather. ATC told us it looked good all the
way with the exception of some little level ones and twos in the
Topeka area. "We should be able to get over most of it, or just
deviate slightly to the north". From Salina they were climbing faster
than the Deb and clouds were building to the north so we had to set
down for the night. Another 15 to 20 minutes would have had us past
it.

The next morning the briefer said (for VFR), "You're in luck. It looks
good 40 miles either side of your flight path if you go right away.
Expect ceilings 1500 or less, visibility 5 or less, both much less in
many instances of heavy rain. Have a good trip!". (They had tornado
watches out)

When we took off it was into 30 G 50 right down the runway. Man, but
we made good time coming out of there. Not a bit of trouble with that
down wind turnG. At 500 feet we had over a 100 knot tail wind. It
took us 5:15 to get that far west from home. It took us 2:20 (or so)
coming back. My wife did comment: "You know, that Dramamine is
wonderful stuff".

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com


Ron (EPM) (N5843Q, Mooney M20E) (CP, ASEL, ASES, IA)

Paul Tomblin wrote:

In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 01:37:41 +0000 (UTC), (Paul
Tomblin) wrote:

I'm just not sure when the conditions are
going to be conducive to bringing the plane home, and the club is NOT
going to be happy about that.

Yes, they would have been much happier had you become an icing accident.


Well, the guy who had it booked for Monday and Tuesday wrote to me that
he'd been thinking of cancelling anyway because of the weather, so I feel
better about that.

This morning I look at the airmets, and there are two of them for icing,
with a narrow little corridor between them straight between BAF and ROC.
Not sure if I trust that narrow corridor to stay open, though. How good
are the boundaries of airmets? Are you ever going to encounter the
conditions outside the boundaries, or are they pretty conservative about
them?


I find the FAA weather guys to be pretty conservative about almost
everything, but even the best weather folks are wrong as often as they
are right. The FAA is especially conservative when calling for icing
and this is a real pain with the ever stricter FAA and NTSB
interpretations of "known icing." Now that forecast = known, it makes
flying in the northeast illegal for about 5 months of the year.

I tend to fly if there isn't rain at ground level and the freezing level
is at or above the MEA or I can fly VFR. However, I've flown a lot in
the winter and am reasonably comfortable taking on reasoned risk.
Everyone's risk assessment and tolerance is different and only you know
what you are comfortable with. If you are significantly concerned about
making the flight, then I'd say that alone probably says it isn't worth
it. Flying is supposed to be fun (unless you are getting paid for it)
so why make a flight that will give you white knuckles on the yoke?


MAtt