Making the safe decision (AKA "I hate AIRMET ZULU")

: This weekend in WI was a perfect case of airmets galore, but good planning
: wouldn't have prevented flying due to ice. Overcast at 2700, clear above
: 3000.(4000 MSL) light to moderate rime ICIP airmet blanketing the entire
: state. VFR both south and north of us, surface temps between 40 and 45F.
: Freezing level 4000 MSL north sloping to 6000 MSL south. ADDS was
: predicting a 80-90% chance of icing at 6000, nothing at 3000, and nothing at
: 9000. The "go" decision could be made because the clouds at 2700-3000 AGL
: were below the freezing level and it was clear above, so the airmet didn't
: have any weather that it applied to. Be careful when using ADDS that you
: remember ceilings are AGL, icing predictions are MSL. So, we could have
: taken off, climbed through the ceiling into clear air.

: What if we come upon a layer at 6000 where ADDS said 80-90% chance of ice?

: What are our outs?
: 1) Climb above it, ADDS predicted 0% at 9000, climb is always my first
: choice. you can climb before you accumulate ice, you can always go down.

: 2) descend below it and continue, MEA is 3000 MSL

: 3) descend through it and land

: 4) turn around and fly back into clear weather

: 5) turn 90 degrees to the system and fly around it, this requires knowledge
: of the area of coverage and conditions surrounding it, plus additional fuel.

6) Stay VFR at 2500 AGL? If it's overcast at 2700, staying out of the iced-up soup
altogether seems like a good plan as well. I'd rather be at 1500 AGL in VMC than
slogging through the soup waiting for ice to start accumulating and have to choose an
"out"

-Cory


--

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss *
* Electrical Engineering candidate Ph.D. graduate student *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************

wrote:

: This weekend in WI was a perfect case of airmets galore, but good planning
: wouldn't have prevented flying due to ice. Overcast at 2700, clear above
: 3000.(4000 MSL) light to moderate rime ICIP airmet blanketing the entire
: state. VFR both south and north of us, surface temps between 40 and 45F.
: Freezing level 4000 MSL north sloping to 6000 MSL south. ADDS was
: predicting a 80-90% chance of icing at 6000, nothing at 3000, and nothing at
: 9000. The "go" decision could be made because the clouds at 2700-3000 AGL
: were below the freezing level and it was clear above, so the airmet didn't
: have any weather that it applied to. Be careful when using ADDS that you
: remember ceilings are AGL, icing predictions are MSL. So, we could have
: taken off, climbed through the ceiling into clear air.

: What if we come upon a layer at 6000 where ADDS said 80-90% chance of ice?

: What are our outs?
: 1) Climb above it, ADDS predicted 0% at 9000, climb is always my first
: choice. you can climb before you accumulate ice, you can always go down.

: 2) descend below it and continue, MEA is 3000 MSL

: 3) descend through it and land

: 4) turn around and fly back into clear weather

: 5) turn 90 degrees to the system and fly around it, this requires knowledge
: of the area of coverage and conditions surrounding it, plus additional fuel.

6) Stay VFR at 2500 AGL? If it's overcast at 2700, staying out of the iced-up soup
altogether seems like a good plan as well. I'd rather be at 1500 AGL in VMC than
slogging through the soup waiting for ice to start accumulating and have to choose an
"out"

Except 200' below the clouds doesn't meet the VFR minimums in most
classes of airspace.

Matt

Matt Whiting wrote:
: slogging through the soup waiting for ice to start accumulating and have to choose an
: "out"

: Except 200' below the clouds doesn't meet the VFR minimums in most
: classes of airspace.

So fly at 2200'. The east/west rules aren't required if below 5000 AGL IIRC.
If you want to call it MVFR, great. I'm just saying I'll take MVFR to icy soup in my
spamcan. Once you're IMC you're "committed" and things like altitude and heading
deviations take (possibly lots of) time, unless you declare an emergency.

-Cory

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss *
* Electrical Engineering candidate Ph.D. graduate student *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************

So fly at 2200'. The east/west rules aren't required if below 5000 AGL IIRC.

3000 AGL in the US.

Jose
--
Money: what you need when you run out of brains.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

wrote:

Matt Whiting wrote:
: slogging through the soup waiting for ice to start accumulating and have to choose an
: "out"

: Except 200' below the clouds doesn't meet the VFR minimums in most
: classes of airspace.

So fly at 2200'. The east/west rules aren't required if below 5000 AGL IIRC.
If you want to call it MVFR, great. I'm just saying I'll take MVFR to icy soup in my
spamcan. Once you're IMC you're "committed" and things like altitude and heading
deviations take (possibly lots of) time, unless you declare an emergency.

Yes, I'd call that MVFR. I believe the cutoff for east/west altitude
rules is 3000 AGL, but that wasn't my point. The point is that the
original suggestion was illegal in most airspace.

I'd rather fly IFR at a safe altitude and get around the ice, than scud
run in mountainous terrain just below the cloud bases and wonder when
the mountains and the bases will become one.

I flew in an area of icing potential just last weekend and had little
problem finding an ice-free altitude. I had to change altitude several
times to stay between layers, but in weather like that, there is very
little traffic below 10,000 feet, even in the northeast. I found new
altitudes to take less than 30 seconds toget, and it took that long only
because the controller volunteered to talk to a few other aircraft to
find the most promising altitude for me. I've found the controllers to
be extremely helpful on days like that. Just ask for their help BEFORE
you get in trouble, don't do something stupid and then drop the problem
in their lap.

Matt

Matt Whiting wrote:

I'd rather fly IFR at a safe altitude and get around the ice, than scud
run in mountainous terrain just below the cloud bases and wonder when
the mountains and the bases will become one.

(not that you will see this, Matt, since you KF'ed me)

What you wrote is certainly true. Given roughly the same location as Paul
(the OP of this thread) was about to cross, another pilot opted to scud run
a couple of years ago and ended up crashing into terrain, killing himself
and the majority of his family. A real tragedy.

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief.asp?e...10X00305&key=1

--
Peter
























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In a previous article, "Peter R." said:
What you wrote is certainly true. Given roughly the same location as Paul
(the OP of this thread) was about to cross, another pilot opted to scud run
a couple of years ago and ended up crashing into terrain, killing himself
and the majority of his family. A real tragedy.

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief.asp?e...10X00305&key=1

And the pilot in question was on the same mailing list as me and we'd
corresponded many times. Maybe not a friend, but a good enough
acquantance that I was considerably saddened by his passing. My wife had
heard the story back when it happened, and mentioned it to me on Sunday
when decision time came along.

Very, very sad.

Another guy on the same mailing list lost his best friend and airplane
partner (and their airplane) when said friend decided to circle to land in
extremely low visibility.

--
Paul Tomblin http://xcski.com/blogs/pt/
You're nicer than I. I was thinking "Mark, would you recognize a clue
if one were gnawing on the end of your dick?"
-- random

: Yes, I'd call that MVFR. I believe the cutoff for east/west altitude
: rules is 3000 AGL, but that wasn't my point. The point is that the
: original suggestion was illegal in most airspace.

I haven't re-read the entire situation, but a 2700' ceiling is not really
MVFR. There's 1200' before it's not "legal VFR" anymore. Flying anywhere east of the
Mississippi will pretty much put you at most 10 minutes from any airport you could
land at if things turn to crap in a hurry.

: I'd rather fly IFR at a safe altitude and get around the ice, than scud
: run in mountainous terrain just below the cloud bases and wonder when
: the mountains and the bases will become one.

IF there is IFR at a safe altitute without icing, I'll agree. For me,
freezing level below MEA is almost without exception a no-go if I cannot go VFR. If
SCT or BKN, or a very thin layer with well-known clear above (forecasts + pireps), may
go IFR to VFR-on-top. Dodging icing in layered and unknown density is *legally* not
an option in any non-deiced single, and *practically* REALLY not an option in my
little Cherokee.

My opinions on this may be jaded by the fact that if I'm going somewhere, I
tend to fly northwest towards Chicago out of southwest Virginia... immediately into
6000' MEAs over the mountains of west virginia. "Getting around" the relatively high
MEAs isn't really an option unless I'm willing to fly to PA first.

: I flew in an area of icing potential just last weekend and had little
: problem finding an ice-free altitude. I had to change altitude several
: times to stay between layers, but in weather like that, there is very
: little traffic below 10,000 feet, even in the northeast. I found new
: altitudes to take less than 30 seconds toget, and it took that long only
: because the controller volunteered to talk to a few other aircraft to
: find the most promising altitude for me. I've found the controllers to
: be extremely helpful on days like that. Just ask for their help BEFORE
: you get in trouble, don't do something stupid and then drop the problem
: in their lap.

If MEA is below the freezing level, I'll concur. In fact, I've stayed at
altitude going IMC overflying west virginia at 8-9000' at the freezing level to see if
I *would* pick up ice. When I did, I asked for lower, got it without delay, decended
a thousand or two and ice cleared up... no problem.


To each their own... I'm a lot more comfortable if I can see outside.

-Cory

--

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss *
* Electrical Engineering candidate Ph.D. graduate student *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************

wrote in message
...
I haven't re-read the entire situation, but a 2700' ceiling
is not really MVFR.

Yes it is:

"MVFR means Minimum or Marginal Visual Flight Rules. MVFR criteria means a
ceiling between 1,000 and 3,000 feet and/or 3 to 5 miles visibility."

http://www.weather.gov/glossary/glossary.php?letter=m

--Gary

Gary Drescher wrote:
: wrote in message
: ...
: I haven't re-read the entire situation, but a 2700' ceiling
: is not really MVFR.

: Yes it is:

: "MVFR means Minimum or Marginal Visual Flight Rules. MVFR criteria means a
: ceiling between 1,000 and 3,000 feet and/or 3 to 5 miles visibility."

: http://www.weather.gov/glossary/glossary.php?letter=m

I stand corrected. The little blue dots on aviationweather.gov always seemed
to go away at 1500'.

-Cory


--

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss *
* Electrical Engineering candidate Ph.D. graduate student *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************