Safety, yet again...

Does anyone know how to extract the "stupid pilot trick" fatalities
(I.E.: Running out of gas; Flying into terrain; Buzzing your
girlfriend's house; etc.) from this statistic?
Why would you want to?
Because I'm interesting in *my* probability of dying in a plane crash,
not anyone elses.

Your probability is actually higher, just =because= you feel
invulnerable. You think that you would =never= make a stupid mistake.
Yet you have posted many stupid mistakes that you have made, some of
which you realized and some of which you still don't.

You've asked this question before, and you have gotten the same
responses before. It won't change, and it appears it won't change you
either. This is a classic accident-waiting-to-happen.

Jose
--
The price of freedom is... well... freedom.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

Your probability is actually higher, just =because= you feel
invulnerable. You think that you would =never= make a stupid mistake. Yet
you have posted many stupid mistakes that you have made, some of which you
realized and some of which you still don't.

He didn't say he would =never= make a stupid mistake, what he said is that
he strives to minimize his exposure to them. I've seen pilots drive up to
our local FBO, walk into the termina, get keys, go out to a rental C150, get
in, start up, taxi out (no runup) and do a mid-field departure (this is an
all-inclusive list). And I've seen this several times.

The results of that kind of behaviour is what Jay is able to avoid by taking
the precautions that he does. There's nothing wrong with the question. If
he (and I for that matter) want to see what our "chances" really are, then
I, for one, don't want to be included in the statistical analysis that
includes my impatient FBO customers that don't preflight, run-up or use all
the 4000ft runway. Because in my world, those three things aren't factors.

Does that mean that I won't die from an engine out or fuel starvation from
my own stupidity? No, but it does mean that I won't take-off with the
gustlocks installed or with detectable water in my fuel.

jf

...If
he (and I for that matter) want to see what our "chances" really are, then
I, for one, don't want to be included in the statistical analysis that
includes my impatient FBO customers that don't preflight, run-up or use all
the 4000ft runway. ...

Well, if you are going to eliminate "stupid pilot tricks" from the
database of accidents, you also have to remove them from the database of
flights (stupid pilot tricks that did not result in a crash). To be
fair you should then eliminate all the flights where the pilot is =more=
careful or meticulous than Jay is. That changes the denominator also.

Then, you have to add back all the flights (and "stupid pilot tricks")
where the pilot didn't realize (like Jay) that what he's about to do,
just this time, is a stupid pilot trick.

Ultimately it's just a way of saying "I'm better than those loons" where
in fact, just saying that belies reality.

Jose
--
The price of freedom is... well... freedom.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

"Jose" wrote in message
om...
To be fair you should then eliminate all the flights where the pilot is
=more= careful or meticulous than Jay is.

Yup, or where the pilot is far more experienced, has more-advanced
qualifications (instrument-current), or is flying a more hazard-resistant
aircraft (deicing, stormscope, TCAS) that is subject to a more-rigorous
inspection schedule for passenger-carrying operations, and so on. (GA
commercial or business flights have a much better safety record than
personal flying.)

On the other hand, I think there *is* a reasonable way to approximate the
calculation Jay is asking for. If we look at training flights, we find
(according to the Nall Report) a fatality rate that's about half the rate
for GA overall (whereas personal flying in general has a fatality rate
that's about 1.5 the rate for GA overall). And we find that lower rate even
though training flights have a high concentration of takeoffs, landings, and
low-altitude maneuvering (the most dangerous phases of flight). So the
fatality rate for training flights plausibly gives us a reasonable estimated
bound of the rate for especially conservative daytime VFR personal flying.
(It's still more dangerous than driving, though.)

--Gary

A PIREP Jay wrote up about a flight to Las Vegas a month or two back
comes to mind - I think Jim Burns was the PIC with Jay a passenger. If
I recall correctly, there were multiple legs flown through high winds
on that trip - high enough to cause sickness to the pilot and
passenger(s), and enough to damage the aircraft during one landing. If
they had died, some would have labeled that flight a SPT.

The fact is that most accidents (car, plane, boat, etc) are caused by
one or more misjudgements/mistakes. We are all human and are all prone
to making mistakes. Certainly we can improve our odds somewhat by not
deliberately doing "stupid" things. But it only takes one mistake to
kill you one time...