Glider Crash - Minden?

In article , Martin Gregorie
writes
Mike Schumann wrote:
If you are on a collision course, how are you going to know whether going
down is the right solution? He might be 50 ft below you, and you are going
to dive right into him. Or he might also decide to descend.

If you need to get out from in front while thermalling, you'll need some
more airspeed to do so and that means lowering the nose to accelerate
while, hopefully, turning to aim off to one side of him.

The opposition has first to see you in order to decide to descend. If we
assign equal probabilities to him climbing, turning or diving then
anything you do to move away from his current course has a 75% chance of
being right.

Now lets be generous and give him a 50% chance of seeing you.
Probabilities multiply when they are combined, so that gives you an 87%
chance of being right.

This brings to mind an interesting suggestion that I was taught when I got
my power license about avoiding collisions with birds: Always climb, as the
birds will tend to dive.

That's only useful if you have an engine or airspeed. If you're
thermalling and try that you'll end up descending about 2 seconds later
and, if the opposition saw you pull up, he'll be down there waiting for
you. Besides, if he read the same book you're quoting he'll be more
likely to pull up than to dive.

In any case, you didn't say what you'd do, so I'll ask again. What would
you do that's better than diving out of the way?


Most of the threats round these parts find it a lot easier to
avoid you at the last second by pulling up, so I reckon Martin's advice
is the best going.

One day about 15 years ago I was downwind to land on 03 in the
tug. I saw an A-10 passing west to east about at 500ft over the approach
to this runway. Of course, he would be long gone by the time I got
there, so no problem.

When I landed, people rushed up and said "Did you see him?"
"Who?"
"The A-10"
"Oh, yes, but he was half a mile away over the end of the
airfield"
"No, not him. The other one, which we saw screaming towards you
when you were downwind. He must have seen you at the last moment, he
pulled up and missed you by about 5 feet. We thought we'd be looking to
get a new tug."

I never saw the second A-10. But I'm glad they all went home
when the cold war ended.


--
Mike Lindsay