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In article , Martin Gregorie
writes Mike Schumann wrote: If you are on a collision course, how are you going to know whether going down is the right solution? He might be 50 ft below you, and you are going to dive right into him. Or he might also decide to descend. If you need to get out from in front while thermalling, you'll need some more airspeed to do so and that means lowering the nose to accelerate while, hopefully, turning to aim off to one side of him. The opposition has first to see you in order to decide to descend. If we assign equal probabilities to him climbing, turning or diving then anything you do to move away from his current course has a 75% chance of being right. Now lets be generous and give him a 50% chance of seeing you. Probabilities multiply when they are combined, so that gives you an 87% chance of being right. This brings to mind an interesting suggestion that I was taught when I got my power license about avoiding collisions with birds: Always climb, as the birds will tend to dive. That's only useful if you have an engine or airspeed. If you're thermalling and try that you'll end up descending about 2 seconds later and, if the opposition saw you pull up, he'll be down there waiting for you. Besides, if he read the same book you're quoting he'll be more likely to pull up than to dive. In any case, you didn't say what you'd do, so I'll ask again. What would you do that's better than diving out of the way? Most of the threats round these parts find it a lot easier to avoid you at the last second by pulling up, so I reckon Martin's advice is the best going. One day about 15 years ago I was downwind to land on 03 in the tug. I saw an A-10 passing west to east about at 500ft over the approach to this runway. Of course, he would be long gone by the time I got there, so no problem. When I landed, people rushed up and said "Did you see him?" "Who?" "The A-10" "Oh, yes, but he was half a mile away over the end of the airfield" "No, not him. The other one, which we saw screaming towards you when you were downwind. He must have seen you at the last moment, he pulled up and missed you by about 5 feet. We thought we'd be looking to get a new tug." I never saw the second A-10. But I'm glad they all went home when the cold war ended. -- Mike Lindsay |
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