Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 06:44:32 -0700, Ron Wanttaja
wrote in
:

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:12:07 GMT, Larry Dighera wrote:

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common
during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail.

The sun is on an 11-year cycle. If 2011 is the date of the max (and we are
apparently in the minimum now), the LAST max was about 2000.

Of course, natural phenomena can be somewhat erratic, but you astute
analysis seems relatively consistent with International Space
Environment Service observations/projections:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

Unless the author believes that GPS receivers only became common after
2000, the user community has already been through one solar max period.

Apparently it was Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University who raised
the concern, not the New Scientist author. But, you are correct about
having used GPS during the 2000 - 2003 peak period. I don't recall
any anomalous GPS behavior back then, but I do recall a solar storm
that caused my garage door opener to spontaneously open and close the
door repeatedly one day.

The aircraft had a dual King 660 FM system with GPS.
STRONG Dick Rutan - Voyager Flight Fun Facts Voyager's
flight was the first-ever, non-stop, unrefueled flight
around the world. It took place between December 14 and
December 23, 1986. ...
www.dickrutan.com/page2.html - 5k - Cached - Similar
pages

1986





"Larry Dighera" wrote in message
...
| On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 06:44:32 -0700, Ron Wanttaja
| wrote in
| :
|
| On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:12:07 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote:
|
| How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only
became common
| during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar
flares will reach
| the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail.
|
| The sun is on an 11-year cycle. If 2011 is the date of
the max (and we are
| apparently in the minimum now), the LAST max was about
2000.
|
| Of course, natural phenomena can be somewhat erratic, but
you astute
| analysis seems relatively consistent with International
Space
| Environment Service observations/projections:
| http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
|
| Unless the author believes that GPS receivers only became
common after
| 2000, the user community has already been through one
solar max period.
|
| Apparently it was Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University
who raised
| the concern, not the New Scientist author. But, you are
correct about
| having used GPS during the 2000 - 2003 peak period. I
don't recall
| any anomalous GPS behavior back then, but I do recall a
solar storm
| that caused my garage door opener to spontaneously open
and close the
| door repeatedly one day.
|

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 14:46:39 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
wrote in
:

The aircraft had a dual King 660 FM system with GPS.
STRONG Dick Rutan - Voyager Flight Fun Facts Voyager's
flight was the first-ever, non-stop, unrefueled flight
around the world. It took place between December 14 and
December 23, 1986. ...
www.dickrutan.com/page2.html - 5k - Cached - Similar
pages

1986

I'm sorry, but I fail to see how that relates to anything I wrote in
the article to which you are following up.

There a post about the age of GPS, I just pointed out that
it was commercially available and used in 1986. Our news
servers had some problems, your post was what I had visible.
I don't recall seeing any thing I wrote that should have
insulted you.



"Larry Dighera" wrote in message
...
| On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 14:46:39 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
| wrote in
| :
|
| The aircraft had a dual King 660 FM system with GPS.
| STRONG Dick Rutan - Voyager Flight Fun Facts Voyager's
| flight was the first-ever, non-stop, unrefueled flight
| around the world. It took place between December 14 and
| December 23, 1986. ...
| www.dickrutan.com/page2.html - 5k - Cached -
Similar
| pages
|
| 1986
|
| I'm sorry, but I fail to see how that relates to anything
I wrote in
| the article to which you are following up.
|

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 17:49:46 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
wrote in
:


There a post about the age of GPS, I just pointed out that
it was commercially available and used in 1986. Our news
servers had some problems, your post was what I had visible.

Ah, I see. And your point is that GPS has been around a long time,
and you have heard no mention of anomalous behavior due to solar
storms. But if you look at the information in some of the links I
posted, you'll find that those who are intimately involved with GPS
operations have observed significant errors in various locations as a
result of changes in the ionosphere such as convective plasma
currents, etc.

I don't recall seeing any thing I wrote that should have
insulted you.

I wasn't insulted; confused.

But a properly trained pilot and his passengers are
dependent on a perfect GPS, VOR or Lycoming engine.



"Larry Dighera" wrote in message
...
| On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 17:49:46 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
| wrote in
| :
|
|
| There a post about the age of GPS, I just pointed out
that
| it was commercially available and used in 1986. Our news
| servers had some problems, your post was what I had
visible.
|
| Ah, I see. And your point is that GPS has been around a
long time,
| and you have heard no mention of anomalous behavior due to
solar
| storms. But if you look at the information in some of the
links I
| posted, you'll find that those who are intimately involved
with GPS
| operations have observed significant errors in various
locations as a
| result of changes in the ionosphere such as convective
plasma
| currents, etc.
|
| I don't recall seeing any thing I wrote that should have
| insulted you.
|
| I wasn't insulted; confused.

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 14:05:05 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote in :

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 06:44:32 -0700, Ron Wanttaja
wrote in
:

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:12:07 GMT, Larry Dighera wrote:

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common
during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail.

The sun is on an 11-year cycle. If 2011 is the date of the max (and we are
apparently in the minimum now), the LAST max was about 2000.

Of course, natural phenomena can be somewhat erratic, but your astute
analysis seems relatively consistent with International Space
Environment Service observations/projections:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

Unless the author believes that GPS receivers only became common after
2000, the user community has already been through one solar max period.

Apparently it was Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University who raised
the concern, not the New Scientist author. But, you are correct about
having used GPS during the 2000 - 2003 peak period. I don't recall
any anomalous GPS behavior back then, but I do recall a solar storm
that caused my garage door opener to spontaneously open and close the
door repeatedly one day.

SPACE WEATHER THREATENS GPS

As if we didn't have enough weather to worry about here on Earth,
scientists have confirmed what has long been anecdotally acknowledged
-- that solar flares play havoc with GPS signals. And with the FAA
moving steadily toward satellite-based technologies for the future of
airspace management, the warnings from last week's Space Weather
Enterprise Forum
(http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/st...04559768&EDATE)
take on increasing poignancy. "Society cannot become overly reliant on
technology without an awareness and understanding of the effects of
future space weather disruptions,'' Anthea Coster, Ph.D., MIT Haystack
Observatory, told attendees at the conference, which was held in
Washington, D.C. There is some good news, however. It appears WAAS
signals, the cornerstone of most of the new navigation protocols, are
somewhat less vulnerable to disruption.
http://www.avweb.com/eletter/archive...ll.html#194884