IFR in the Eastern Mountains

: I disagree. Flying IFR in IMC in the mountains in the east is serious
: business and shouldn't be sugar coated. As they say, if you can't take
: the heat...

Absolutely. With MEAs over WV around 6000', that pretty much rules out all
but thin stratus into VFR-on-top IFR days from October through April.

The mountain wave and turbulence should also not be underestimated. I've been
in VFR over BKW (Beckly, WV... only about 50 miles from my home base). I hit a layer
of IMC at about 6000', but there was plenty of VMC below. I got a clearance for
"practice." Within 10 minutes, my groundspeed went from about 100 kts to 55 kts, and
I was getting +-500fpm no matter what power settings I tried to use. At one point I
was in clear VMC and plenty of room below so I cancelled and flew the last 20 miles
VFR in 2500' ceilings.

VFR in only more dangerous in the "average" sense that a lot of the clear
weather might be associated with highs and gusty winds. IMC can also have ugly winds,
and the sink associated with the ridges can make a mess of you too.

-Cory

--

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss, Ph.D., PPSEL-IA *
* Electrical Engineering *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************

IFR with mountains obscured and MEA above 6000 feet makes
single-engine and light multiengine a difficult trip since
loss of an engine will put you in the strato or
cumulogranite clouds. You can fly the light twin at cruise
several thousand feet above the MEA and drift down while
proceeding to a landing. But a plan is required.



wrote in message
...
|: I disagree. Flying IFR in IMC in the mountains in the
east is serious
| : business and shouldn't be sugar coated. As they say, if
you can't take
| : the heat...
|
| Absolutely. With MEAs over WV around 6000', that pretty
much rules out all
| but thin stratus into VFR-on-top IFR days from October
through April.
|
| The mountain wave and turbulence should also not be
underestimated. I've been
| in VFR over BKW (Beckly, WV... only about 50 miles from my
home base). I hit a layer
| of IMC at about 6000', but there was plenty of VMC below.
I got a clearance for
| "practice." Within 10 minutes, my groundspeed went from
about 100 kts to 55 kts, and
| I was getting +-500fpm no matter what power settings I
tried to use. At one point I
| was in clear VMC and plenty of room below so I cancelled
and flew the last 20 miles
| VFR in 2500' ceilings.
|
| VFR in only more dangerous in the "average" sense that a
lot of the clear
| weather might be associated with highs and gusty winds.
IMC can also have ugly winds,
| and the sink associated with the ridges can make a mess of
you too.
|
| -Cory
|
| --
|
|
************************************************** ***********************
| * Cory Papenfuss, Ph.D., PPSEL-IA
*
| * Electrical Engineering
*
| * Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
*
|
************************************************** ***********************
|

Jim Macklin wrote:
: IFR with mountains obscured and MEA above 6000 feet makes
: single-engine and light multiengine a difficult trip since
: loss of an engine will put you in the strato or
: cumulogranite clouds. You can fly the light twin at cruise
: several thousand feet above the MEA and drift down while
: proceeding to a landing. But a plan is required.

I wouldn't say that particularly makes the trip "difficult." It does change
the risk management equation somewhat but that's not necessarily a "go/no-go"
dealbreaker for many people. Many folks will argue that single-engine IMC or
single-engine night is suicide, but thousands do it daily.

Flying in IMC with the freezing level lower than the ceilings and MEAs is a
significantly higher weighted risk than single-engine failure over the mountains.
That's why for me I feel the latter is an acceptable risk, but the former is not in my
light single.

-Cory

--

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss, Ph.D., PPSEL-IA *
* Electrical Engineering *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************

I flew a lot of 135, we had to be able to maintain the MEA
on one engine.

What I was pointing out was that two engines don't alter the
safety factor unless you can maintain the MEA and that is an
ice free altitude [thanks for adding that]. Over Kansas, at
night, the forced landing has a 99% chance of coming down on
fairly level ground. Over mountains you may just hit a
vertical wall.


wrote in message
...
| Jim Macklin wrote:
| : IFR with mountains obscured and MEA above 6000 feet
makes
| : single-engine and light multiengine a difficult trip
since
| : loss of an engine will put you in the strato or
| : cumulogranite clouds. You can fly the light twin at
cruise
| : several thousand feet above the MEA and drift down while
| : proceeding to a landing. But a plan is required.
|
| I wouldn't say that particularly makes the trip
"difficult." It does change
| the risk management equation somewhat but that's not
necessarily a "go/no-go"
| dealbreaker for many people. Many folks will argue that
single-engine IMC or
| single-engine night is suicide, but thousands do it daily.
|
| Flying in IMC with the freezing level lower than the
ceilings and MEAs is a
| significantly higher weighted risk than single-engine
failure over the mountains.
| That's why for me I feel the latter is an acceptable risk,
but the former is not in my
| light single.
|
| -Cory
|
| --
|
|
************************************************** ***********************
| * Cory Papenfuss, Ph.D., PPSEL-IA
*
| * Electrical Engineering
*
| * Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
*
|
************************************************** ***********************
|

: What I was pointing out was that two engines don't alter the
: safety factor unless you can maintain the MEA and that is an
: ice free altitude [thanks for adding that]. Over Kansas, at
: night, the forced landing has a 99% chance of coming down on
: fairly level ground. Over mountains you may just hit a
: vertical wall.

True enough. All I was saying is that the chances of getting in trouble by
ignoring something like the MEA's vs. icing is a lot more likely than a single-engine
failure in a single... whether in low IMC over the mountains or not. Just flying over
mountains in IMC doesn't increase the chances of having an engine failure (it just
make you THINK about it more...

-Cory


--

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss, Ph.D., PPSEL-IA *
* Electrical Engineering *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************

wrote:



True enough. All I was saying is that the chances of getting in trouble by
ignoring something like the MEA's vs. icing is a lot more likely than a single-engine
failure in a single... whether in low IMC over the mountains or not. Just flying over
mountains in IMC doesn't increase the chances of having an engine failure (it just
make you THINK about it more...

Not necessarily so when one is young, has accumulated a fair amount of
experience, and has a senese, "that won't happen to me."

I speak of myself flying a Beech Debonair in the Summer of 62 from
Nashville to DCA on the north side of a low (no TRWS, at least I
understood that ;-)

It was already night time and the ceilings/vis were mostly 500-2.

I still think, after the fact, about that engine crapping out. I was
fearless at the time.

We didn't have to worry about ice. It was July. ;-)

: It was already night time and the ceilings/vis were mostly 500-2.

: I still think, after the fact, about that engine crapping out. I was
: fearless at the time.

Everyone has their own personal issues, but it's about personal risk management. If one worries an inordinant
amount on everything that can possibly go wrong on a flight, they'll never fly at all. IMO, risks that have a high
chance of an ugly outcome, but are relatively unlikely to happen include things like:

Engine failu
- Over mountains
- At night
- In low-ish IMC
- Shortly after takeoff
Vacuum failure in IMC
Mechanical control failure

OTOH, risks that have a high chance of an ugly outcome AND are highly likely if you don't respect them are
things like:

Downdrafts in mountainous terrain.
Icing in IMC with MEAs above the freezing level.
IMC in embed CB without on-board weather.

Total Perceived Risk = $\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}{R_i * Pr_i * Wp_i}$

R_i - Individual risk hazzard
Pr_i - Probability of risk occuring
Wp_i - Personal weighting factor for the individual risk

(sorry about the equation... seemed the most susinct way to describe what I was saying)

-Cory

--

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss, Ph.D., PPSEL-IA *
* Electrical Engineering *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************