IFR in the Eastern Mountains

: It was already night time and the ceilings/vis were mostly 500-2.

: I still think, after the fact, about that engine crapping out. I was
: fearless at the time.

Everyone has their own personal issues, but it's about personal risk management. If one worries an inordinant
amount on everything that can possibly go wrong on a flight, they'll never fly at all. IMO, risks that have a high
chance of an ugly outcome, but are relatively unlikely to happen include things like:

Engine failu
- Over mountains
- At night
- In low-ish IMC
- Shortly after takeoff
Vacuum failure in IMC
Mechanical control failure

OTOH, risks that have a high chance of an ugly outcome AND are highly likely if you don't respect them are
things like:

Downdrafts in mountainous terrain.
Icing in IMC with MEAs above the freezing level.
IMC in embed CB without on-board weather.

Total Perceived Risk = $\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}{R_i * Pr_i * Wp_i}$

R_i - Individual risk hazzard
Pr_i - Probability of risk occuring
Wp_i - Personal weighting factor for the individual risk

(sorry about the equation... seemed the most susinct way to describe what I was saying)

-Cory

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* Cory Papenfuss, Ph.D., PPSEL-IA *
* Electrical Engineering *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
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