Good weather -- flying more?

The only thing certain today is that temperatures are higher than they
were a few decades ago. The causes are unknown, the future trend is
impossible to determine. Human activity may or may not be a factor.
There is a consistent tendency among human beings to overestimate
their importance and influence on the biosphere, and this should be
kept in mind when speculating.

Well put.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination'

Jay Honeck schrieb:
The only thing certain today is that temperatures are higher than they
were a few decades ago. The causes are unknown, the future trend is
impossible to determine. Human activity may or may not be a factor.
There is a consistent tendency among human beings to overestimate
their importance and influence on the biosphere, and this should be
kept in mind when speculating.

Well put.

But completely wrong.

Stefan writes:

But completely wrong.

If only that were true.

We know very little about the atmosphere of the planet and about
large-scale weather patterns, even though we know the equations that
govern atmospheric phenomena on a small scale. We do not have enough
data to accurately predict the weather, and there is no way to get
enough data. Even if we had it, we don't have the computing power to
make use of it. All weather prediction beyond 24-48 hours is based to
a large extent on speculation. The chaotic behavior of weather
ensures that we cannot get it right for more than a very short period
in the future.

Over the long term, the number of variables increases by orders of
magnitude. We don't understand the effects of any but a handful of
them, and even then, their long-term effects are unknown. We have no
way of knowing anything at all, really. We like to think that we know
it all, and we like to think that changes are our own doing (even when
they are bad changes), but we are woefully incorrect on both counts.

The future also depends on other variables that we cannot know in
advance, such as solar energy production. It depends on variables
that we haven't discovered yet, much less accurately measured.

While it's commendable to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas produced
by human beings, we don't really know if it will make any difference,
nor do we know if it has made any difference thus far. We can only
guess.

It seems that the most difficult thing for human beings to accept is
humility.

--
Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail.

Stefan wrote:
Jay Honeck schrieb:

The only thing certain today is that temperatures are higher than they
were a few decades ago. The causes are unknown, the future trend is
impossible to determine. Human activity may or may not be a factor.
There is a consistent tendency among human beings to overestimate
their importance and influence on the biosphere, and this should be
kept in mind when speculating.


Well put.


But completely wrong.

Only in the minds of politicians and "scientists" looking for grant
money from politicians.

Matt

Stefan wrote:

Jay Honeck schrieb:

The only thing certain today is that temperatures are higher than they
were a few decades ago. The causes are unknown, the future trend is
impossible to determine. Human activity may or may not be a factor.
There is a consistent tendency among human beings to overestimate
their importance and influence on the biosphere, and this should be
kept in mind when speculating.


Well put.


But completely wrong.

You have exactly a zero percent chance of knowing that.