uh-oh...

"Maxwell" wrote:
I wonder what the latest numbers are for GA fatalities due to fuel
stavation and weather? Isn't it about 90%?

Nowhere near that. Time to get your statistics updated! According to the
following source, those two items accounted for about 18%[*] of all
fatalities:

http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/06nall.pdf

(Should be required reading for pilots, IMHO.)
[*] 82.9% * (8.3% + 13.6%) = 18.2%

On Thu, 12 Apr 2007 03:41:29 -0000, Jim Logajan wrote:

"Maxwell" wrote:
I wonder what the latest numbers are for GA fatalities due to fuel
stavation and weather? Isn't it about 90%?

Nowhere near that. Time to get your statistics updated! According to the
following source, those two items accounted for about 18%[*] of all
fatalities:

http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/06nall.pdf

I did my own study of Cessna 172/210 accidents from 1998 through 2004 (excluding
training accidents)... a bit over 1,000 accidents. Some highlights of my
results:

General Pilot Error 52.5%
Maintenance Error 4.6%
Undetermined Loss of Power 4.7%
Engine Mechanical 3.7%
Fuel System 0.9%
Other Mechanical 4.2%
Fuel Exhaustion/Starvation 8.9%
Carb Ice 1.2%
VFR to IFR 5.2%
Inadequate Preflight 1.6%
Fuel Contamination 0.5%

The "General Pilot Error" basically is the cases where the pilot lost control of
the aircraft (generally during takeoff and landing), misjudged the approach,
stall/spin, etc.

Ron Wanttaja

"Ron Wanttaja" wrote in message
...

On Thu, 12 Apr 2007 03:41:29 -0000, Jim Logajan wrote:


"Maxwell" wrote:
I wonder what the latest numbers are for GA fatalities due to fuel
stavation and weather? Isn't it about 90%?

Nowhere near that. Time to get your statistics updated! According to the
following source, those two items accounted for about 18%[*] of all
fatalities:

http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/06nall.pdf


I did my own study of Cessna 172/210 accidents from 1998 through 2004
(excluding
training accidents)... a bit over 1,000 accidents. Some highlights of my
results:


General Pilot Error 52.5%
Maintenance Error 4.6%
Undetermined Loss of Power 4.7%
Engine Mechanical 3.7%
Fuel System 0.9%
Other Mechanical 4.2%
Fuel Exhaustion/Starvation 8.9%
Carb Ice 1.2%
VFR to IFR 5.2%
Inadequate Preflight 1.6%
Fuel Contamination 0.5%

The "General Pilot Error" basically is the cases where the pilot lost
control of
the aircraft (generally during takeoff and landing), misjudged the
approach,
stall/spin, etc.


I thought I might be quoting an urban legend, that's why I invited the
numbers. I knew someone would have them handy. Back when I was learning to
fly in '71, these numbers were a little more difficult to come by. But I did
hear it quoted a lot, often by some of my own CFIs.

I didn't see any numbers on icing, or control failure due to ice though.
Ron, was that part of the General Pilot Error figure, or did it say?

On Wed, 11 Apr 2007 23:21:42 -0500, "Maxwell" wrote:

I didn't see any numbers on icing, or control failure due to ice though.
Ron, was that part of the General Pilot Error figure, or did it say?

The figures I posted was from my own analysis, and covered only non-training
accidents in 172s and 210s from 1998-2004. I didn't find any in-flight icing
accidents of these aircraft in this period, although several due to not removing
frost during preflight.

My process was to download the NTSB reports, read the narrative, and come to my
own conclusion as to the cause. I mostly, but not always, agreed with the
NTSB's probable cause.

Here are the cause categories included in my database:

Engine failures -
Undetermined
Engine Internal
Fuel - Firewall forward
Fuel - Aft of Firewall
Ignition
Fuel Exhaustion/Starvation
Fuel Contamination
Drive system
Oil System
Carburetor Mechanical
Carb Ice
Cooling System
General Pilot Mishandling, including loss of control due to stalls, winds,
other, and unknown.
VFR to IFR
Disorientation
Wake Turbulence
Mechanical Failure
Airframe
Controls
Propeller/spinner
Other
Maneuvering at Low Alt
Failure to Recover from maneuver (deliberate aerobatics)
Pilot Incapacitation
Density Altitude
Manufacturer/Builder error
Maintenance Error
Midair
Control Blockage
Inadequate Preflight
Inexperience
CG or Weight
Fire
Suicide
Controller Error
Undetermined

During my analysis, I would assign an "Initiator" (my equivalent of probable
cause) and check off other categories as secondary/tertiary factors as
appropriate.

The analysis was performed as part of a study of homebuilt accidents, published
in KITPLANES magazine last year. I included the Cessna 172/210 accidents as a
control group.

Ron Wanttaja

"Ron Wanttaja" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 11 Apr 2007 23:21:42 -0500, "Maxwell" wrote:

I didn't see any numbers on icing, or control failure due to ice though.
Ron, was that part of the General Pilot Error figure, or did it say?

The figures I posted was from my own analysis, and covered only
non-training
accidents in 172s and 210s from 1998-2004. I didn't find any in-flight
icing
accidents of these aircraft in this period, although several due to not
removing
frost during preflight.

My process was to download the NTSB reports, read the narrative, and come
to my
own conclusion as to the cause. I mostly, but not always, agreed with the
NTSB's probable cause.

Here are the cause categories included in my database:

List only snip

During my analysis, I would assign an "Initiator" (my equivalent of
probable
cause) and check off other categories as secondary/tertiary factors as
appropriate.

The analysis was performed as part of a study of homebuilt accidents,
published
in KITPLANES magazine last year. I included the Cessna 172/210 accidents
as a
control group.


Thanks Ron, sounds like a very educational endeavor. Sorry I missed the
article, sounds like an interesting piece, especially to us Cessna guys.
It's got me thinking I might reframe my question at this point, and start
new post tomorrow.