IFR Flight Twice as Deadly as VFR?

"Jay Honeck" writes:

[...] Twice as many deaths occur while flying under instrument
flight rules as they do in visual flight rules, per hour flown.
[...] Over the years I have done my best to convince her and my
family that IFR flight in GA aircraft is not unduly or inherently
dangerous -- but that is pretty hard to prove in the face of these
statistics.

Sorry, it sounds a little like you're trolling.

Therefore, for those of you who regularly fly IFR in light piston
singles and twins, a few questions:

1. Do you agree with Collins' statements?

Assuming the data was gathered and analyzed correctly, it's not a
matter of opinion.

2. Assuming the statistics are true, how do you minimize your risk?

The same way one minimizes non-IFR risks: good planning, equipment,
maintenance, judgement, performance. Remember, even two times a small
number is a small number.

3.Since IFR flight is statistically among the most dangerous things
you can do in a light GA aircraft [...]

Since when? The Nall report gives a broader analysis, listing for
example VFR-into-IMC as a popular way to end one's career.


- FChE

Frank Ch. Eigler writes:

Sorry, it sounds a little like you're trolling.

In other words, you disagree. Why not just say so instead of pretending that
there is something objectively wrong with someone else's expression of
opinion?

--
Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail.

Sorry, it sounds a little like you're trolling.

In other words, you disagree. Why not just say so instead of pretending that
there is something objectively wrong with someone else's expression of
opinion?

Actually, you're both wrong. I am neither trolling, nor expressing my
opinion. Rather, I am seeking a risk assessment from experienced IFR
pilots who regularly fly IFR in light piston aircraft.

If I am ever to proceed to the IR, it's must be with the full consent
of my co-pilot. If she and I determine that the risk of GA instrument
flight is simply too high to bear -- or, worse, if we disagree on that
risk, and she simply won't fly instruments with me -- there is no need
to proceed to that next rating.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

On 14 Apr 2007 05:56:51 -0700, "Jay Honeck"
wrote:


Rather, I am seeking a risk assessment from experienced IFR
pilots who regularly fly IFR in light piston aircraft.

The basic flaw with this is you will only hear from those pilots that
are still alive. The pilots who can give you a negative view of the
risk are not available to reply to your thread. I think it is
appalling that you think it is ok to keep you wife and children in the
dark about the risks of flying. LSA aircraft carry a placard to warn
passengers that the plane is not certified because the FAA thinks they
have a right to know. Does your family deserve any less?

The basic flaw with this is you will only hear from those pilots that
are still alive. The pilots who can give you a negative view of the
risk are not available to reply to your thread.

Great (if depressing) point.

I think it is
appalling that you think it is ok to keep you wife and children in the
dark about the risks of flying. LSA aircraft carry a placard to warn
passengers that the plane is not certified because the FAA thinks they
have a right to know. Does your family deserve any less?

On the contrary, my wife is an experienced pilot who is all-too aware
of the risks of flying. Despite this, we routinely launch to all
points on the map, because we have accepted the risks inherent with
VFR flight. (In fact, we're launching for Florida tomorrow.)

My children are another thing entirely, and we have debated this since
birth. Subjecting them to the increased risk of GA has always been
problematic, but we've always decided on the side of "living" versus
"waiting to die", because GA has made it possible to give our kids so
much more than would otherwise have been possible.

Right now I'm trying to dispassionately assess the risks of IFR
flight, which is a whole 'nother kettle of fish. Collins' article
was quite a wake-up call for me, in that regard.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Jay Honeck wrote:
Sorry, it sounds a little like you're trolling.
In other words, you disagree. Why not just say so instead of pretending that
there is something objectively wrong with someone else's expression of
opinion?

Actually, you're both wrong. I am neither trolling, nor expressing my
opinion. Rather, I am seeking a risk assessment from experienced IFR
pilots who regularly fly IFR in light piston aircraft.

If I am ever to proceed to the IR, it's must be with the full consent
of my co-pilot. If she and I determine that the risk of GA instrument
flight is simply too high to bear -- or, worse, if we disagree on that
risk, and she simply won't fly instruments with me -- there is no need
to proceed to that next rating.

I think it is logical that flying IFR will increase your overall risk of
flying if for no other reason being that you may fly more. You will now
make flights that would have left you grounded under VFR.

Matt

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
oups.com...
Sorry, it sounds a little like you're trolling.

In other words, you disagree. Why not just say so instead of pretending
that
there is something objectively wrong with someone else's expression of
opinion?

Actually, you're both wrong. I am neither trolling, nor expressing my
opinion. Rather, I am seeking a risk assessment from experienced IFR
pilots who regularly fly IFR in light piston aircraft.

If I am ever to proceed to the IR, it's must be with the full consent
of my co-pilot. If she and I determine that the risk of GA instrument
flight is simply too high to bear -- or, worse, if we disagree on that
risk, and she simply won't fly instruments with me -- there is no need
to proceed to that next rating.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"


Just having the rating won't force you into higher risk situations. With
each flight, you still choose what level of risk you are willing to take.
Haven't flown IFR for a while? Then don't do a flight that will require hard
IFR enroute followed by an approach to mins.

There is still a lot of value in getting up or down through a deck or doing
an approach to a 1000 foot ceiling. Very managable risks.

For me, an IFR rating allows me to make more trips on my schedule. Not all.
But more.

--
-------------------------------
Travis
Lake N3094P
PWK

Ok, statistics say that you are twice as likely to die if you are IFR vs
VFR (apparently - at least that's what kicked off this thread). Also, there
was a recent thread comparing the statistics for GA vs scheduled airlines...

Some more to consider - You are 29 times more likely to die if you are
behind the wheel of an Acura RSX vs a Chevy Astro minivan. Jay - you drive a
Mustang, right? Did you know you are 21 times as likely to die compared to
the Astro? Here's another good one - The death rate for the Mercury Grand
Marquis is 66% higher than the Ford Crown Victoria - and they are the same
car!!!
(Based on driver deaths per number of registerd vehicles)

Correlation does not imply causality.

--
Geoff
The Sea Hawk at Wow Way d0t Com
remove spaces and make the obvious substitutions to reply by mail
When immigration is outlawed, only outlaws will immigrate.

The death rate for the Mercury Grand
Marquis is 66% higher than the Ford Crown Victoria -
and they are the same car!!!

They are not, however, the same drivers. Consider who the brands appeal to.

Jose
--
Get high on gasoline: fly an airplane.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

Jose writes:

They are not, however, the same drivers. Consider who the brands appeal to.

The same applies to aviation.

The raw statistics are only meaningful if you have absolutely no control over
the situation and your situation is identical to the average situation.
However, a pilot, like a car driver or motorcycle rider, has a great deal of
control over the situation, which means that overall statistics may be
entirely inapplicable to an individual pilot.

--
Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail.