Cost of gas is beginning to hurt

"M" wrote in message
oups.com...
On Apr 26, 7:16 am, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:


It is amazing, how many people fail to realize that the 30% of aircraft
that
HAVE TO HAVE 100LL are the ones that do 70% (or more) of the flying
hours.


I have seen this 30%/70% number repeatedly, but I don't remember it
ever came from a scientific survey, or just someones rough estimate.

FAA figures.


Regardless of that, this might be true in 1997, but I doubt it's true
anymore in 2007. Especially if you exclude engines there're
originally certificated for 91/96 avgas. Commercial operators flying
large number hours have been increasingly switching to turboprop
equipment in the last 10 years for things like feeder line freight,
air taxi or charter.

It'll take years to convert.

That has contributed to the big decline of
overall 100LL consumption in U.S.

Do you have a cite for that last one?

What's the GA activity level over the past few years?

On Apr 27, 6:40 pm, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:


I have seen this 30%/70% number repeatedly, but I don't remember it
ever came from a scientific survey, or just someones rough estimate.

FAA figures.


Care to provide the source (URL of the original data)?


That has contributed to the big decline of
overall 100LL consumption in U.S.

Do you have a cite for that last one?

What's the GA activity level over the past few years?

Year US Avgas production and import (thousand barrels)
1999 7485
2000 6648
2001 7121
2002 6584
2003 6255
2004 6295

source:
http://www.indexmundi.com/en/commodi...ly_monthly.htm

"M" wrote in message
ups.com...
On Apr 27, 6:40 pm, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:


I have seen this 30%/70% number repeatedly, but I don't remember it
ever came from a scientific survey, or just someones rough estimate.

FAA figures.


Care to provide the source (URL of the original data)?


That has contributed to the big decline of
overall 100LL consumption in U.S.

Do you have a cite for that last one?

What's the GA activity level over the past few years?

Year US Avgas production and import (thousand barrels)
1999 7485
2000 6648
2001 7121
2002 6584
2003 6255
2004 6295

source:
http://www.indexmundi.com/en/commodi...ly_monthly.htm

Try "Operating Hours".

It's only in the past year or so that hours flown is recovering to pre-2001
levels.

Hell, just look at your 2003-2004 numbers.

On Apr 27, 6:40 pm, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:


That has contributed to the big decline of
overall 100LL consumption in U.S.

Do you have a cite for that last one?


This is an even better source showing the decline of 100LL
consumption:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm

"M" wrote in message
oups.com...
On Apr 27, 6:40 pm, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:


That has contributed to the big decline of
overall 100LL consumption in U.S.

Do you have a cite for that last one?


This is an even better source showing the decline of 100LL
consumption:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm


Do you understand correlation vs causation?

On Apr 29, 1:46 pm, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:

This is an even better source showing the decline of 100LL
consumption:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm

Do you understand correlation vs causation?

You're simply arguing without any solid number. Just because you
believe 100LL still has a bright future doesn't mean it's true.

"M" wrote in message
oups.com...
On Apr 29, 1:46 pm, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:

This is an even better source showing the decline of 100LL
consumption:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm

Do you understand correlation vs causation?

You're simply arguing without any solid number. Just because you
believe 100LL still has a bright future doesn't mean it's true.

I never said 100LL had a bright future. I figure inside ten years and it'll
be banned. , for one, would love to invest in TAT and their PRISM system.
MOF, even if 100LL enjoys a long and fruitful life, I'd put a PRISM system
on my airplane the moment the STC is signed.

NTL, You're about oh-for-five in comprehension, on just about every aspect.

One last time: show me flight hours, not any irrelevant numbers you can pull
out of your ass without a context and you might make a small point.

You say the 70-30 ration has been falling for ten years. You've come up with
several unrelated numbers to substantiate your point, such as number of
gallons sold, which does not take into effect the effect of the fall off in
economic activity.

If you can't avoid going off on tangents, or putting round pegs in square
holes, there's no point in me following up.

In sum: you can ext
--
Matt Barrow
Performace Homes, LLC.
Colorado Springs, COract your foot from your mouth and get off your agenda
anytime.