Avgas availability

On May 16, 8:18 am, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:

The fact is that U.S. refining capacity has been growing at about 1% a year
for the past decade - the equivalent of adding a mid-size refinery every
year. Since 1996, U.S. refiners have expanded capacity by more than 2
million barrels a day This is a remarkable achievement in the face of
environmental mandates setting new ethanol usage and low-sulfur
requirements.

But the last major refinery built in the U.S. was in Garyville, La., in 1976
and the ones we have are getting older, no matter how well they're
maintained.

I dont know about the rest of the country but I do know about
Louisiana. Right now you cannot go to a refinery complex on the
Southern Louisiana area and not see them doing MASSIVE expansion,
doubling sometimes tripling the refinery complex. From Norco/Avondale/
St. Rose near MSY (just south of it) up the river to L38 (Gonzalez)
where Sorento/Giesimer/Fina etc all the way to Baton Rouge (Port
Allen) the bulldozers and welders are working as we speak.

You mention Garyville. That is the Marathon Garyville refinery near
REserve airport. In the last year it has doubled its size and now is
set for at least a doubling of that size. They are 'as we speak"
clearing the old sugar cane fields for new "smokestacks". The
Chocktow is also expanding.

the "we have not built a new refinery since XXXX" sounds good but is
misleading.

Avgas in LA is cracked at the Sorento refinery near L38.

Robert
At St. James tank farm it has tripled since Katrina the number of
storage tanks.

"Luke Skywalker" wrote in message
ps.com...
On May 16, 8:18 am, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:

The fact is that U.S. refining capacity has been growing at about 1% a
year
for the past decade - the equivalent of adding a mid-size refinery every
year. Since 1996, U.S. refiners have expanded capacity by more than 2
million barrels a day This is a remarkable achievement in the face of
environmental mandates setting new ethanol usage and low-sulfur
requirements.

But the last major refinery built in the U.S. was in Garyville, La., in
1976
and the ones we have are getting older, no matter how well they're
maintained.

I dont know about the rest of the country but I do know about
Louisiana. Right now you cannot go to a refinery complex on the
Southern Louisiana area and not see them doing MASSIVE expansion,
doubling sometimes tripling the refinery complex. From Norco/Avondale/
St. Rose near MSY (just south of it) up the river to L38 (Gonzalez)
where Sorento/Giesimer/Fina etc all the way to Baton Rouge (Port
Allen) the bulldozers and welders are working as we speak.


Doing what?

You say "expansion", but what are they expanding?

Now, if you'd read back to the original article, you'd find some interesting
data that you happened to snip.


You mention Garyville. That is the Marathon Garyville refinery near
REserve airport. In the last year it has doubled its size and now is
set for at least a doubling of that size. They are 'as we speak"
clearing the old sugar cane fields for new "smokestacks". The
Chocktow is also expanding.

"Expanding" what? Capacity? How much capacity expansion? (Original vs new).

the "we have not built a new refinery since XXXX" sounds good but is
misleading.

Only if we can keep updating 1970's technology.

Avgas in LA is cracked at the Sorento refinery near L38.

----------------
(What follows is not necessarily directed at Luke)

Hey, folks! Keep the old crap. Keep ANWR, the outer shelf and all the rest
nice and pristine.

There's no shortage of capacity (according to our resident "experts"), so
what are we worried about. If the price goes to $4.00 for Mogas and $5.50
for avgas, it's just the oil companies ripping us off.

"Matt Barrow" wrote:
"Luke Skywalker" wrote in message
ups.com...
On May 16, 8:18 am, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:

The fact is that U.S. refining capacity has been growing at about 1% a
year
for the past decade - the equivalent of adding a mid-size refinery every
year. Since 1996, U.S. refiners have expanded capacity by more than 2
million barrels a day This is a remarkable achievement in the face of
environmental mandates setting new ethanol usage and low-sulfur
requirements.

But the last major refinery built in the U.S. was in Garyville, La., in
1976
and the ones we have are getting older, no matter how well they're
maintained.

I dont know about the rest of the country but I do know about
Louisiana. Right now you cannot go to a refinery complex on the
Southern Louisiana area and not see them doing MASSIVE expansion,
doubling sometimes tripling the refinery complex. From Norco/Avondale/
St. Rose near MSY (just south of it) up the river to L38 (Gonzalez)
where Sorento/Giesimer/Fina etc all the way to Baton Rouge (Port
Allen) the bulldozers and welders are working as we speak.

Doing what?

You say "expansion", but what are they expanding?

Capacity.

Now, if you'd read back to the original article, you'd find some interesting
data that you happened to snip.

Nothing in the original article was valid. Why bother re-reading it.

You mention Garyville. That is the Marathon Garyville refinery near
REserve airport. In the last year it has doubled its size and now is
set for at least a doubling of that size. They are 'as we speak"
clearing the old sugar cane fields for new "smokestacks". The
Chocktow is also expanding.

"Expanding" what? Capacity? How much capacity expansion? (Original vs new).

Typically when any one refinery has been expanded, they go for enough
added capacity to provide whatever increase is needed plus enough to
shutdown at least one other refinery. That is why for decades now there
have been no "new" refineries built, but there has been a steady increase
in capacity and a dramatic decrease in the number of refineries.

the "we have not built a new refinery since XXXX" sounds good but is
misleading.

Only if we can keep updating 1970's technology.

An absurd statement. Why would anyone want to do that, and since
when is anyone trying to do that. 1970's technology is what they
are eliminating as fast as they can.

There's no shortage of capacity (according to our resident "experts"), so
what are we worried about. If the price goes to $4.00 for Mogas and $5.50
for avgas, it's just the oil companies ripping us off.

Given that they can expand refinery capacity at will, what else would you
want to call it?

--
Floyd L. Davidson http://www.apaflo.com/floyd_davidson
Ukpeagvik (Barrow, Alaska)

I have been somewhat following this discussion and as to the "proven
reserve" why would anyone putting out the money for what exploration
has been done want to freely share this with their competitors and a
bunch of so called experts that could not count their family jewls
twice and come up with the same answer. Oops we forgot to measure the
output, Duh, if you want to know put your money where your mouth is.
As far as the government experts how could they possibly know how
much oil is in Alaska when all the dipsticks are in Washington DC.

Lyn Wagner
N2759P

wrote:
I have been somewhat following this discussion and as to the "proven
reserve" why would anyone putting out the money for what exploration
has been done want to freely share this with their competitors and a
bunch of so called experts that could not count their family jewls
twice and come up with the same answer. Oops we forgot to measure the
output, Duh, if you want to know put your money where your mouth is.

If an oil company wants to attract investors it has to
demonstrate that it actually does have a future in oil
production. That is to say, the investors want to see
proven reserves, and the more the better.

But what you suggest is *very* true of data from seismic
work and other collection/analysis by geologists, which
is used to suggest where exploration wells should be
drilled; however, all of that is kept secret so that a
company can bid on leases that allow them to drill.

Once they are at the drilling stage there are very few
instances where secrecy is either useful or even
allowed. Nobody drilling on a State lease from Alaska
is able to keep the well data secret. The only time it
would be useful is when no other leases have been sold
in a particular area. Hence one shot wildcat
operations, generally not on State land, are the kind
that might be kept secret.

Note that this discussion was about proven reserves in
the 1002 area of ANWR. To date there has been exactly
one well drilled (KPC-1, by Chevron in 1985, on land
owned by the village of Kaktovik) in ANWR. Because they
knew they would be the only ones allowed to drill a
well, they have kept the data secret. Speculation is
that given Chevron's absolute disinterest in ANWR since,
that it must have been a dry hole.

As far as the government experts how could they possibly know how
much oil is in Alaska when all the dipsticks are in Washington DC.

Dead on.

The USGS reports and the department of the Interior's
various manipulations have all been extremely suspect.

The shift in the USGS 1988 and 1998 reports on ANWR,
from projecting oil would be in the eastern section to
claiming it will be in the western section, is just a
little too convenient for political purposes. In the
1980's it was not clear what the effects of oil
pipelines and road stretching all the way to the eastern
edge of ANWR would be, and saying the oil was in the
eastern end made it easy to justify drilling anywhere.
But by the 1990's that was environmental suicide!
Saying the oil will all be right on the western edge,
causing the least possible impact, is good politics in
terms of getting a foot in the door.

Take the USGS reports with a grain of salt. Just then
be aware that otherwise there simply is *no* indication
of *any* oil in ANWR (never mind any proven reserves!).

--
Floyd L. Davidson http://www.apaflo.com/floyd_davidson
Ukpeagvik (Barrow, Alaska)

wrote in message
ups.com...
I have been somewhat following this discussion and as to the "proven
reserve" why would anyone putting out the money for what exploration
has been done want to freely share this with their competitors and a
bunch of so called experts that could not count their family jewls
twice and come up with the same answer.

Are you familiar with leases?

Oops we forgot to measure the
output, Duh, if you want to know put your money where your mouth is.
As far as the government experts how could they possibly know how
much oil is in Alaska when all the dipsticks are in Washington DC.

Are you familiar with "attracting capital" and how said capital is used for
drilling/exploration?

MOF, are you familiar with anything other than lame, elementary school
humor?

On May 19, 3:22 pm, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:
"Luke Skywalker" wrote in message


I am not a refinery expert nor do I play one on TV...but what I do
know is that they are massivly increasing the acreage of these
facilities and the history is when they do that...the old facilities
keep right on going.

is it 70's technology? I dont know. The Nimitz and the Ronald Reagan
"Look" alot a like but the technology on The Nimitz when she was built
isnt the technology that they put on The Ronald Reagan.

Robert

"Luke Skywalker" wrote in message
ups.com...
On May 19, 3:22 pm, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:
"Luke Skywalker" wrote in message


I am not a refinery expert nor do I play one on TV...but what I do
know is that they are massivly increasing the acreage of these
facilities and the history is when they do that...the old facilities
keep right on going.

Well, when you find out what going onto that acreage, we can discuss. But
note, outside of new ruling by EPA, it's not likely to be direct capacity.
Possibly, storage, transport, and maybe even capacity. IAC, don't make wild
ass assumptions like the media or academics.


is it 70's technology? I dont know. The Nimitz and the Ronald Reagan
"Look" alot a like but the technology on The Nimitz when she was built
isnt the technology that they put on The Ronald Reagan.

Quite. You just answered my point. But as marvelous a machine as the USS
Reagan is, we're not going to be a one-carrier Navy.

Go back to the IBD article and re-read the part about capacity growing
DESPITE having lost so much in PHYSICAL ASSETS.

The issue that so many want to evade is that our refining infrastructure is
running near 100 percent of capacity. Our demand is out-stripping that
capacity.

Here's an analogy: You have a nice freeway, but a few years later it's
running bumper-to-bumper, 24/7. If you want to add a couple lanes, you have
to shut down the freeway and divert traffic.

Now, imagine what happens when the need to repair a stretch for fill in
potholes.

Now imagine there's a wreck and all the bozos (congress) are rubber-necking.

Imagine, too, that all of our cars are 1976 and older, but we did keep them
up pretty well. We tuned them up, and put new seat covers in and a new CD
player. Yet, we can't put it in the garage for a lengthy time to get a
complete overhaul.