GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.

On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:


Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print

I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.

If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.

What has changed is as noted risk aversion, but also there's lots more
things people want to spend money on (such as more than $1500 year on
television, probably $2000 a year on a cell phone plan or two, servicing
the car loan and the consequential full insurance cover you need with a
loan, people choosing to buy McMansions with the consequent high
heating/AC costs etc). So at the end of the day there's less left over
for flying.

--
Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid.
Oolite-Linux: an Elite tribute: http://oolite-linux.berlios.de

"Dylan Smith" wrote in message
...
On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:


Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print

I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.

If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.

Do you have some stats to support that?

(Off the top of my head from a sporatic memory)

For example, when I learned to fly, in the late 70's, a 172 went $18-20 an
hour. Today, it's $120 an hour.

Inflation has certainly not been a factor of six in that intervening time.

A 1993 Beech F33A went $130-140k - now an A36 goes around a $Million$.

What has dropped is avionics and probably overall maint labor costs. These,
though, are not enough to offset the acquision and operating costs.

--
Matt Barrow
Performace Homes, LLC.
Cheyenne, WY

On 2007-06-19, Matt Barrow wrote:
If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.

Do you have some stats to support that?

It's difficult to compare exact like for like, but, reposting from an
earlier message, comparing club prices of 1970 with club prices of 2007:

(on the decline of GA)
snip
On 2007-05-23, birdog wrote:
Why? My opinion, it's the expense. In the '60's and early 70's, our
club
used to fly an old Champ for $4 an hour and a 172 for $16 an hour,
wet.

And my reply:

$16 hr wet in 1970 dollars is $85 wet in 2006 dollars.

The Bay Area Aero Club in Houston, which I used to be a member of, rents
its 172 out at $75 hr today. So the price in real terms has actually
fallen.
snip

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/ - an RPI calculator.

--
Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid.
Oolite-Linux: an Elite tribute: http://oolite-linux.berlios.de

"Dylan Smith" wrote in message
...
On 2007-06-19, Matt Barrow wrote:
If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.

Do you have some stats to support that?

It's difficult to compare exact like for like, but, reposting from an
earlier message, comparing club prices of 1970 with club prices of 2007:

(on the decline of GA)
snip
On 2007-05-23, birdog wrote:
Why? My opinion, it's the expense. In the '60's and early 70's, our
club
used to fly an old Champ for $4 an hour and a 172 for $16 an hour,
wet.

And my reply:

$16 hr wet in 1970 dollars is $85 wet in 2006 dollars.

The Bay Area Aero Club in Houston, which I used to be a member of, rents
its 172 out at $75 hr today. So the price in real terms has actually
fallen.
snip

What year is that 172? When I was renting them in the 1979-1981 range, it
was maybe a year old model.

Try that today.

Here is an inflation calculator, no idea how accurate it is..........

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/



On Tue, 19 Jun 2007 06:30:01 -0700, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:


"Dylan Smith" wrote in message
...
On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:


Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print

I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.

If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.

Do you have some stats to support that?

(Off the top of my head from a sporatic memory)

For example, when I learned to fly, in the late 70's, a 172 went $18-20 an
hour. Today, it's $120 an hour.

Inflation has certainly not been a factor of six in that intervening time.

A 1993 Beech F33A went $130-140k - now an A36 goes around a $Million$.

What has dropped is avionics and probably overall maint labor costs. These,
though, are not enough to offset the acquision and operating costs.

"Mutts" wrote in message
...


Here is an inflation calculator, no idea how accurate it is..........

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

Not very accurate: it pertains mostly to consumer items in a very wide
scope.

A better "barometer" is the Federal Reserve money supply. Neither, though,
account for areas in which technology plays a big part in LOWERING costs.

For example: in 1954, my parents bought a brand new 21" B&W TV. It cost $375
at the time. It was the equivalent of the biggest TV's today. A typical TV
in those days was 13" at best.

My daughter, who just went out on her own, bought a 34" widescreen LCD (or
something thin, flat panel) and paid $329.

As mentioned below, contrast was a dual Nav-Com set went for 25 years ago
(Collins Microline, for example: $5000 if IRC), compared to what Garmin
offers.

On Tue, 19 Jun 2007 06:30:01 -0700, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:


"Dylan Smith" wrote in message
...
On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:


Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print

I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.

If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.

Do you have some stats to support that?

(Off the top of my head from a sporatic memory)

For example, when I learned to fly, in the late 70's, a 172 went $18-20 an
hour. Today, it's $120 an hour.

Inflation has certainly not been a factor of six in that intervening time.

A 1993 Beech F33A went $130-140k - now an A36 goes around a $Million$.

What has dropped is avionics and probably overall maint labor costs.
These,
though, are not enough to offset the acquision and operating costs.

On Tue, 19 Jun 2007 11:05:14 +0000 (UTC), Dylan Smith
wrote:

On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:


Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print

I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.

If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.

No, I can't agree with that. Back when I was a freshly-minted Air Force 2nd
Lieutenant, a brand-new 172 cost about 150% of my annual salary. Now, thirty
years later, a brand-new 172 would cost *more* than 150% of my salary... despite
decades of career growth and raises that reflect experience, not just cost of
living increases.

Ron Wanttaja

Your probalby right.

Priorities and sacrifice.

People probably just gotta have all the crap instead.
Dreams of flight? what does that mattter when you have to have a hip
car, cool flip phone, home enterntainment system,
gotta have a computer, gaming system, eat out a lot, see all the
movies, etc etc.

And none of that challenges you, it is all instantly gratifying.
Jeez, I mean even model airplanes can be purchased pre-built these
days.

I built models of nearly everything that ever flew as a kid.

I dont know. Maybe it is indeed too many things now to spend money on
instead.

the population is growing, yet pilots are not.

I mean kids still are drawn to it, I was at an airshow last weekend
and this teen was prattling off things he knew about warbirds to his
Dad, who seemed to not know. So I think it was all the kids deal to be
at the airshow which is great.


It still is a special thing no matter what, Ill mention something or
people see stuff in my office and I always get that look and question
"your a pilot?" and lots of questions, some even I have taken up.
But none of those folks have wanted to learn themselves.




On Tue, 19 Jun 2007 11:05:14 +0000 (UTC), Dylan Smith
wrote:

On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:


Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print

I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.

If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.

What has changed is as noted risk aversion, but also there's lots more
things people want to spend money on (such as more than $1500 year on
television, probably $2000 a year on a cell phone plan or two, servicing
the car loan and the consequential full insurance cover you need with a
loan, people choosing to buy McMansions with the consequent high
heating/AC costs etc). So at the end of the day there's less left over
for flying.