How dangerous is soaring?

On 31 Oct, 19:11, 1LK wrote:

Not exactly. The odds ratio applies to any point in time; it's
neither cumulative or additive. I have a 98.75% chance of being here
tomorrow; on a day a year from now I'll have roughly the same odds of
being here a day after that.

If you have a 98.75% chance of being here tomorrow, then you have a
98.75% x 98.75% chance of being here a day after that, a 98.75% x
98.75% x 98.75% chance of seeing Sunday and so on.

Sure, /if/ you make it to 1st November 2008 you have a 98.75% chance
of making it to 2nd ... but there's only a 1% chance, on these
figures, that you'll put it to the test.

Ian

The calculation which yields the 80/1 is only true for the single
instance; my odds of being here next year are another thing entirely.
For that you need to do mortality computations.

Ray

On 1 Nov, 14:07, 1LK wrote:
The calculation which yields the 80/1 is only true for the single
instance; my odds of being here next year are another thing entirely.
For that you need to do mortality computations.

I'm having real difficulty understanding this. Are you saying that ...

1) There is a 1/80 chance you'll be dead by this time tomorrow and
that

2) There is a 1/80 chance you'll be dead by this time the day after?

Ian