Final Word on Syrian/Iranian A/C

"robert arndt" wrote in message
om...

OK Robert,
I told you I have a feeling you talk about something you don't have a clue
about, and so here is - once again - the whole story, so that even children
and those in the rearest rows can understand it.

AFM, June 2000 issue, p.15 (this one was NOT mine):

"Syria gets Flankers
It has been reported by sources within Russia that the first shipment of
Sukhoi Su-27 Flankers to Syria was due to be delivered to Damascus by the
end of April (2000) Although Syria has been planning to procure new military
equipment from Russia (Syria plans Russian Re-equipment, April 1999, p.11),
no official confirmation of any contracts has so far emerged. However, the
aircraft were apparently being prepared for shipment from the Gagarin
Aviation Production Association factory in Komsomolsk-on-Amur during April.
The Consequences of such a purchase could impact on the negotiations taking
place between Israel and Syria concerning the settlement of the dispute over
the Golan Heights. It will certainly strengthen Israeli demands for
additional US military assistance, particularly the procurement of new and
more advanced weapons systems."


So, that article mentioned the PREPARATIONS of Su-27s to be sent to Syria.

And then there came the following report of mine from AFM _July 2000_, the
first to mention Su-27s in Syria:

"Syria is believed to have received four Su-27 Flankers during May, with
another four due imminently (Syria Gets Flankers, June, p.15). The Flankers
have been delivered to the same squadron, however, at two locations - Minakh
AB (home of the Air Force Academy) and the military side of Damascus
International Airport, with two aircraft stationed at each location.

The thinking behind the division is that if one of the airfields is attacked
then aircraft from the other would survive. However, given the proximity of
Minakh to the Turkish border and Damascus to Israel (both of which are
linked by far-reaching defence agreements) it would seem that Syria is
guarding against attacks from both countries. Three years ago Turkey came
close to war with Syria due to their PKK support."


Can you - or anybody else here - find any EARLIER report about SIGHTING or
DELIVERIES of Flankers IN Syria - not their preparations for being sent
there or anything else?
(Oh, and would you at least once not be so ignorant as usually and answer
this question of mine?)


And, as you obviously haven't read my post in the other thread, although I
have suggested you to do so, here it once again, the full explanation and
the _end of the story_, my report published in AFM volume July 2003, p.18

"No Flankers in Syria
Contrary to press reports in 2000, it is now known that the Syrian Arab Air
Force (SyAAF) is not operating Su-27s (amending "Four Flankers in Syria,
July 2000, p.16). However, this does not mean that the Su-27 has never been
seen in Syria, as reported at the time. In 1999 and 2000, Moscow started
intensive efforts to sell Su-27s to Damascus and there are indications that
the Russians are still trying to do so. On no fewer than four occasions,
Su-27s have been flown to Syria in order to be demonstrated to the SyAAF
pilots and engineering officers, in order to familiarise them with the
aircraft. One such event took place in autumn 1999, and another in April
2000, when two Su-27s drawn from Russian Air Force units were deployed to
the SyAAF Academy at Minakh AB, and further two going directly to Damascus.
On both occasions, the aircraft also carried "full" SyAAF markings, and a
group of Syrian pilots was permitted to fly them, putting the aircraft
through a series of intensive and prolonged tests. Quite why the Syrians did
not in the end purchase the Su-27s remains unclear - one reason was almost
certainly the lack of funding on the Syrian side. However, Syrian sources
stress that this was not exactly the case, saying they were refusing Russian
requests to pay debts for equipment supplied during the 1980s, variously
reported to be between $2 and $5 billion.
The Syrians were unwilling to pay for equipment which in their opinion was
neither "top of the range" nor effective in combat against the Israeli. It
seems that Moscow somehow accepted this decision and orders for certain
other weapons, including AT-14 ATGMs, were accepted, with deliveries
commencing in 2002. The Su-27 deal was not, however, to be finalised.
Another problem seems to have been the fact that Rosobornexport was offering
Syria only eight Su-27s and four Su-27UBs (at an unknown price) in April
2001; one month later another offer was made, for then Su-27S and two
Su-27UBs. The Syrians, however, wanted many more Flankers. Citing a study
prepared for the SyAAF, Damascus stressed that 42 Flankers would be the
absolute minimum to be of any use to the Syrian Air Force. It remains
unknown why the Russians refused to supply this many. When negotiations with
Sukhoi fell through, the SyAAF went back to RSK MiG and ordered 22 MiG-29s
(all second-hand/used airframes, but upgraded to an as-yet-unknown
standard), together with 300 "upgraded air-to-air missiles" of unspecified
type. At least 16 of these Fulcrums were delivered to Syria in 2001 and
2002, and are believed* to be operational with one of the three units flying
the type. Interestingly, this deal was never announced by RSK MiG or made
public."

*Meanwhile it is _known_ that they are operational.

The 826th FS still flies MiG-21bis, from al-Quasyr AB.

The Israelis have closely monitored the arrival of different pieces of
equipment in Syria during the last two years, especially because some of the
stuff that was arriving there was forwarded to Iraq. This caused a whole
series of severe incidents, none of which was reported in the press (in part
becaue the editor of the AFM explained that, "there's not enough fighting"
in them), you can find the report about these events he
http://www.acig.org/artman/publish/article_278.shtml

Note also that in the report published in July 2003 AFM I mentioned also the
delivery of AT-14s to Syria. This happened in autumn last year (2002). The
Syrians forwarded 12 launchers and at least 100 rounds to the Iraqis, and
the Iraqis used these during the war with the USA, in March and April this
year (together with some TOWs they captured in Kuwait in 1990, but also got
via Syria in the last two years: the US Army has an official investigation
running to the topic).

And so, Rob, you can now expect that within the next two years every of your
"authoritative" sources is going to take Su-27s out of the Syrian inventory.


BTW, talking about the future years: what is with my proposal from the post
above?

Tom Cooper
Co-Author:
Iran-Iraq War in the Air, 1980-1988:
http://www.acig.org/pg1/content.php
and,
Iranian F-4 Phantom II Units in Combat:
http://www.osprey-publishing.co.uk/t...hp/title=S6585