russia vs. japan in 1941 [WAS: 50% of NAZI oil..]

"Hugo S. Cunningham" wrote in message
...


Perhaps they would have done better to take a defensive attitude
toward the US fleet at Pearl Harbor while seizing the oil fields in
Indonesia. Pearl Harbor vaporized isolationist sentiment in the USA,
while a far-off colonial war might not have.

IMO opinion that was their best credible move, but not a good one - they had
no good options, given the revulsion the Japs had generated in the USA over
Nanking and the atrocity prone nature of the Japanese military, attacking
south where these atrocities would inevitably be directed against whites
(the race would have mattered a lot back then), throw in the fact that it
would be a pretty clear defiance of the purpose of the embargo and the US
would probably have come in anyway.

The big difference is that the US fleet would have been intact and the PI
would have been a lot more secure, also the USA might not have been at war
with Germany (unless Hitler repeated his idiot declaration).

Honestly, Japans best bet was probably to side with the Allies against
Germany and hope that by supporting them, they could buy silence on the
Chinese front, but I doubt it was politically feasible in Japan or USA.

"John Mullen" wrote in message
...


Great post!

And, by choosing the eastern, Pacific route of expansion rather than the
western, they ensured that the Navy rather than the Army would have
precedence in the Japanese junta of the time. These guys made an absolute
art-form of inter-service rivalry!


Well yes but the army retained the upper hand, its not as if they
were doing nothing. There was this little war going on in China
If you read Yamamoto's biography its clear that the navy OPPOSED
war with the western powers.

Interesting to speculate what if they had pursued the western route
instead.
Of course if they and the Nazis had been proper allies instead of
mistrustful (as well as untrustworthy!) basket cases, they'd have been
having this discussion in late 1940 or so.

Think Germany and Japan, working together in a coordinated way, could have
beaten the Soviets without bringing the US or UK into the war?


No. The Americans woud still have cutt off their oil and Japan would
have to make a grab for Malaya and the NEI

Germany has Barbarossa but without having Fall Gelb first. Japan
consolidates in China then attacks Siberia.


Witl all their forces the Japanese were unable to consolidate
China and with their poor transport and meagre infrastructure
they couldnt possibly have made deep inroads into Siberia.

And then perhaps done Western Europe afterwards. Assume a 1938/9
understanding greater than actually happened.


It doesnt help, Japan simply lacked the manpower and resources.

Keith

There are some notes on Nomonhan at www.warbirdforum.com/nomonhan.htm

all the best -- Dan Ford
email: www.danford.net/letters.htm#9

see the Warbird's Forum at www.warbirdforum.com
and the Piper Cub Forum at www.pipercubforum.com

Without that oil the gains made in China would collapse, the attack south
was always meant to be a limited operation to secure resource

I don't think that an attack waged on a 4,000-mile front could fairly
be called limited.

It was intended to be a six-month operation, followed by a lifetime
occupation of a defense zone too vast to be challenged by the U.S.
navy. But the hoped-for brevity of the war doesn't suggest that it was
minor. After all, Germany invaded and occupied most of continental
Europe in nine months. That wasn't limited!
all the best -- Dan Ford
email: www.danford.net/letters.htm#9

see the Warbird's Forum at www.warbirdforum.com
and the Piper Cub Forum at www.pipercubforum.com

Well yes but the army retained the upper hand, its not as if they
were doing nothing. There was this little war going on in China
If you read Yamamoto's biography its clear that the navy OPPOSED
war with the western powers.

Where in the world did you get this information? The Japanese army
longed to attack Russia. The Japanese navy longed to attack into the
"southern treasure chest", incidentally liberating Asia from British,
Dutch, and American imperialism.

War with the western powers (American, British, Dutch) was precisely
the navy's grand strategy, and the one that prevailed in the summer of
1941. The army had a busy six months, scrambling to get ready for a
war it had never planned for. This was of course the reason that the
Japanese army air force went to war with fewer than 100
retractable-gear Ki-43 Hayabusa fighters, the army's equivalent of the
navy Zero.

all the best -- Dan Ford
email: www.danford.net/letters.htm#9

see the Warbird's Forum at www.warbirdforum.com
and the Piper Cub Forum at www.pipercubforum.com

"Cub Driver" wrote in message
...
Without that oil the gains made in China would collapse, the attack south
was always meant to be a limited operation to secure resource

I don't think that an attack waged on a 4,000-mile front could fairly
be called limited.

It was intended to be a six-month operation, followed by a lifetime
occupation of a defense zone too vast to be challenged by the U.S.
navy. But the hoped-for brevity of the war doesn't suggest that it was
minor. After all, Germany invaded and occupied most of continental
Europe in nine months. That wasn't limited!

It was a limited operation in that its goal was not to defeat the C'wealth
or the USA strategically, it was to simply push them back outside the
planned area of fortifications and then dig in.

A limited operation does not have to be minor, it just has to have well
defined limits.

"Cub Driver" wrote in message
...

Well yes but the army retained the upper hand, its not as if they
were doing nothing. There was this little war going on in China
If you read Yamamoto's biography its clear that the navy OPPOSED
war with the western powers.

Where in the world did you get this information? The Japanese army
longed to attack Russia. The Japanese navy longed to attack into the
"southern treasure chest", incidentally liberating Asia from British,
Dutch, and American imperialism.


From the biography of Admiral Yamamoto which was written
by Hiroyuki Agawa published by Kodansha International

War with the western powers (American, British, Dutch) was precisely
the navy's grand strategy, and the one that prevailed in the summer of
1941. The army had a busy six months, scrambling to get ready for a
war it had never planned for.


The decision to go to war with America was taken by the
Japanese cabinet after the fall of the government led by Prince Konoye
The Konoye government had been following a policy of
attempting to negotiate a solution with the USA, the navy
minister in this government was Admiral Yamamoto who
had advised that war with the USA should be avoided at
all costs.


The Japanese leader who took over in Oct 1941 was of course
General Hideki Tojo who was a hard liner and it was under
his leadership and that of the army that the decison for war
was taken

Its a matter of record that Yamamoto was against this policy and the he
was sent to sea to avoid assassination by the pro-war faction.

This was of course the reason that the
Japanese army air force went to war with fewer than 100
retractable-gear Ki-43 Hayabusa fighters, the army's equivalent of the
navy Zero.


The Ki-43 'Oscar' was an entirely different aircraft from the zero of
course and its only real opposition in the initial attacks were
the Brewster Buffaloes of the RAF in Singapore. On the one
occasion it encountered the handful of Hurricanes available
they came off very much second best.

Keith

"John Mullen" wrote in message ...

snip great post

Great post!

It was.

And, by choosing the eastern, Pacific route of expansion rather than the
western, they ensured that the Navy rather than the Army would have
precedence in the Japanese junta of the time. These guys made an absolute
art-form of inter-service rivalry!

Interesting to speculate what if they had pursued the western route instead.
Of course if they and the Nazis had been proper allies instead of
mistrustful (as well as untrustworthy!) basket cases, they'd have been
having this discussion in late 1940 or so.

Think Germany and Japan, working together in a coordinated way, could have
beaten the Soviets without bringing the US or UK into the war?

Yes and no. Yes, Germany can attack the Soviets without the West
getting in the way. Skip the occupation of Prague, and go straight
for Poland. Poland is not well thought-of in the West, since they
joined in on the carveup of Czechoslovakia. Then occupy the Baltic
States. Now start the Anti-Bolshevik Crusade.

But they won't win.

Germany has Barbarossa but without having Fall Gelb first.

Germany looted a huge amount of gold, fuel, weapons, ammo, food,
trucks, and industrial production from occupied France. It came to
~15 gigabucks (1940 dollars) IIRC. Without these resources, the
German effort in the East is likely to fall a great deal short.

Japan consolidates in China

That will never happen.

then attacks Siberia.

And gets trounced as bad as they did in 1937 - 1939.

And there's no oil they can get to in Siberia, even if they do win,
which they won't.

And then perhaps done Western Europe afterwards. Assume a 1938/9
understanding greater than actually happened.

Dosen't help. Neither has what it takes, although the West might
support the Axis if it looks like the Bolshies are about to win it
all.

Stuart Wilkes

"Stuart Wilkes" wrote in message
om...
"John Mullen" wrote in message
...

snip great post

Great post!

It was.

And, by choosing the eastern, Pacific route of expansion rather than the
western, they ensured that the Navy rather than the Army would have
precedence in the Japanese junta of the time. These guys made an
absolute
art-form of inter-service rivalry!

Interesting to speculate what if they had pursued the western route
instead.
Of course if they and the Nazis had been proper allies instead of
mistrustful (as well as untrustworthy!) basket cases, they'd have been
having this discussion in late 1940 or so.

Think Germany and Japan, working together in a coordinated way, could
have
beaten the Soviets without bringing the US or UK into the war?

Yes and no. Yes, Germany can attack the Soviets without the West
getting in the way. Skip the occupation of Prague, and go straight
for Poland. Poland is not well thought-of in the West, since they
joined in on the carveup of Czechoslovakia. Then occupy the Baltic
States. Now start the Anti-Bolshevik Crusade.

But they won't win.

Germany has Barbarossa but without having Fall Gelb first.

Germany looted a huge amount of gold, fuel, weapons, ammo, food,
trucks, and industrial production from occupied France. It came to
~15 gigabucks (1940 dollars) IIRC.

OTOH they alsoguaranteed a fight with the UK, then still (just!) the world's
leading military power.

Without these resources, the
German effort in the East is likely to fall a great deal short.

Japan consolidates in China

That will never happen.

Even without trying to take on the US?

then attacks Siberia.

And gets trounced as bad as they did in 1937 - 1939.

And there's no oil they can get to in Siberia, even if they do win,
which they won't.

Even without trying to take on the US?

And then perhaps done Western Europe afterwards. Assume a 1938/9
understanding greater than actually happened.

Dosen't help. Neither has what it takes, although the West might
support the Axis if it looks like the Bolshies are about to win it
all.

Now that would be an interesting thought! Certainly lead to a different
history...

John

"John Mullen" wrote in message
...
"Stuart Wilkes" wrote in message
om...
"John Mullen" wrote in message
...

Germany looted a huge amount of gold, fuel, weapons, ammo, food,
trucks, and industrial production from occupied France. It came to
~15 gigabucks (1940 dollars) IIRC.

OTOH they alsoguaranteed a fight with the UK, then still (just!) the
world's
leading military power.


By what measure ?

The RN may have been arguably the strongest although
the USN was surely equal or better. The RAF was able
to hold its own on the defensive (just) but it was in no
shape to launch any real attacks on the nemey and the
army was pitifully small in comparison to that of Germany
and was for the most part less well equipped and led.



Without these resources, the
German effort in the East is likely to fall a great deal short.

Japan consolidates in China

That will never happen.

Even without trying to take on the US?


Yes, the amount of help that reached the Chinese before the
repoening of the Burma Road in 1944 was little more than token
and the Japanese simply lacked the manpower to effectively
subjugate China.

then attacks Siberia.

And gets trounced as bad as they did in 1937 - 1939.

And there's no oil they can get to in Siberia, even if they do win,
which they won't.

Even without trying to take on the US?


Yep, there still wasnt any oil in Siberia and that was the limiting factor
for Japan.

Keith