Global Warming The debbil made me do it

On Mar 9, 3:35 pm, Bertie the Bunyip wrote:

These days they're getting it right about 90% of the time.

My flight logs come with forecast winds for every waypoint. they are
generaly within 10degrees and 5 knots of forecast hours form when the
forecast was made.
Vis, winds, precip, are all forecast to an accuracy that would have
been thought impossible just a few years ago.

Bertie

From which source?

Can't you read? Me. I just told you. Moi, Ich, myself with my own eyes.

I've yet to see winds aloft match the forecast except when very strong
(40 Knots @ 3000) or very light.

Mine are for high alt. The wx service wont tell you the wind at the top
of every peak, that's YOUR job to extrapolate.

Bertie

I don't fly high alt -- I fly between 5-14k.

I know what my job is -- thanks, and therefore how to extrapolate.



Dan

Dan wrote in news:c95ff77d-661d-48a0-9a9c-
:

On Mar 9, 3:35 pm, Bertie the Bunyip wrote:

These days they're getting it right about 90% of the time.

My flight logs come with forecast winds for every waypoint. they
are
generaly within 10degrees and 5 knots of forecast hours form when
the
forecast was made.
Vis, winds, precip, are all forecast to an accuracy that would
have
been thought impossible just a few years ago.

Bertie

From which source?

Can't you read? Me. I just told you. Moi, Ich, myself with my own
eyes.

I've yet to see winds aloft match the forecast except when very
strong
(40 Knots @ 3000) or very light.

Mine are for high alt. The wx service wont tell you the wind at the
top
of every peak, that's YOUR job to extrapolate.

Bertie

I don't fly high alt -- I fly between 5-14k.

I know what my job is -- thanks, and therefore how to extrapolate.


Then how come you didn't realise that that is where the error lay?


Bertie

On Mar 9, 3:49 pm, Bertie the Bunyip wrote:

I know what my job is -- thanks, and therefore how to extrapolate.

Then how come you didn't realise that that is where the error lay?

Bertie

The errors are in velocity as well as direction, and far above "every
peak."

I used winds aloft as one example -- if you're going to assert that
current weather forecasting is 90% exact, I wanna know what service
your using.

And that's forecast -- not observation.


Dan

Dan wrote in news:6081a008-813e-4109-a18e-
:

On Mar 9, 3:49 pm, Bertie the Bunyip wrote:

I know what my job is -- thanks, and therefore how to extrapolate.

Then how come you didn't realise that that is where the error lay?

Bertie

The errors are in velocity as well as direction, and far above "every
peak."


I thoght you said you knew what you were doing?

Ever heard of bernoulli?

I used winds aloft as one example -- if you're going to assert that
current weather forecasting is 90% exact, I wanna know what service
your using.

And that's forecast -- not observation.


That's forecast.

I use the same as you. Within reason, I'll stand by the 90%. In fact,
that's a conservative estimate. Compared to what forecasting used to be
like, forecasting is uncannily accurate.

We use fido for flight plan sheets. that;s the ones with weather. The
other is the same as you get. I think I've been surprised by weather
once this year.


Bertie