How much longer?

Over my ~13 years in aviation, fuel prices have increased by about 100%.
That's about 5.5% a year, against everything else which is inflating at
~3% a year. Much of the run-up on fuel prices is due to currency
fluctuations, which have added something like a dollar to your cost of
avgas. Most of that currency fluctuation (devaluation of the dollar) is a
recent development. Take that out of the equation, and gas is no more
expensive today (inflation adjusted) than it was 13 years ago.

Yeah, I know all that -- but in real life you can't take that out of the
equation. Our dollar is in the dumpster, and we're all getting the pinch
because of it.

When will it run people out of the air? Dunno, but the losses start at
the margins. How many ratty Cherokees and C-150's do you see buzzing
around these days? Not as many as you used to. IMO, those people may have
been the first victims.

Yep. The beaters are still on the field, but I don't see them fly anymore.
My A&P says that he's seeing an awful lot of planes coming in for annual
inspections with few -- or even NO -- hours since last year. There are an
awful lot of owners hanging on by their fingernails.

Light twins have taken a big hit in value (and flying time), which is a
function of fuel cost.

I only know one private party still flying a twin, and most of the charters
have switched to turbines. Just a few years ago, they were all over the
airport.

Similarly, I'm starting to see good deals on aircraft that have
historically held their value well, like Commanches. It takes a lot of gas
to run a 250 hp engine.

Yep, our O-540-powered Pathfinder has taken a significant hit in value. Of
course, almost all aircraft have. It's really a buyer's market out there
right now.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Jay Honeck wrote:

Yep, our O-540-powered Pathfinder has taken a significant hit in
value. Of course, almost all aircraft have. It's really a buyer's
market out there right now.

Yes, I know. :-)

I've been wanting to buy an airplane since selling my 50% 182
partnership back in 1999 when my company nearly went bust, but the cost
was just too high given one kid in college, myself in graduate school
and another not far from college.

However, I've been looking at 182RGs (I want to finish my commercial)
and the prices have dropped dramatically the last couple of years.
There is one nearby me that was advertised for $95K a year ago, dropped
to 86K a few months ago and I just saw a new add for it at $77K! 77 is
my graduation year so maybe this is a sign! :-) Then again, I like the
number 70 also and I suspect by mid-summer when the recession is
officially declared, the price may get to that.

I came very close to buying an Arrow last winter, but the owner is
asking way above Vref and so far refuses to deal so that one likely
won't happen. It is more nicely equipped than the 182 (the 182 has a
high time engine and no GPS, but has LORAN, a FD, S-TEC 60 AP and other
goodies). I prefer the 182 for the additional interior room, extra
door, extra speed, range, useful load and high wing, but the Arrow would
be more economical to operate and I believe the gear is less troublesome
than the Cessna singles and it really is a very nice Arrow inside and
out. But $98K for a 77 Arrow is just way above market at present and I
really don't think the market for GA singles is ever going to return so
paying above market today is almost certainly money thrown away. Fuel
cost and future availability and the constant advance of regulations is
slowing dooming GA (low-end anyway) to the same fate as Europe.

Matt

On Sat, 05 Apr 2008 14:25:35 GMT, Matt Whiting

However, I've been looking at 182RGs

Terrific airplane.


I came very close to buying an Arrow last winter, but the owner is
asking way above Vref and so far refuses to deal so that one likely
won't happen. It is more nicely equipped than the 182 (the 182 has a
high time engine and no GPS, but has LORAN, a FD, S-TEC 60 AP and other
goodies). I prefer the 182 for the additional interior room, extra
door, extra speed, range, useful load and high wing, but the Arrow would
be more economical to operate and I believe the gear is less troublesome
than the Cessna singles

Not really. I never had a speck of trouble in 900 hours with a 172RG,
which has the same gear. Do proper maintenance (you'd do that anyway,
right?) and it will be fine.



and it really is a very nice Arrow inside and
out. But $98K for a 77 Arrow is just way above market at present and I
really don't think the market for GA singles is ever going to return so
paying above market today is almost certainly money thrown away.

Indeed. You should be able to make a great deal nowadays.

--
Dan
T182T at 4R4