How much longer?

On 2008-04-04 19:47:30 -0700, "Jay Honeck" said:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we
paid $5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we
paid over $300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought
I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher
must gas go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time?
Anyone care to predict what year the last personal flights will occur
in America?

Considering that there are waiting lists for people to buy a Cessna 172
for nearly $300,000, almost double what one cost a couple years ago, I
doubt that the price of gas is going to have much effect on aviation,
even if it goes to $100/gallon. The only effect will be to make the
complaints louder.

The cost of gas is a pittance compared to whatever else people spend on
an airplane. If gas starts to hurt airplane sales, the manufacturers
will simply offer incentives like Cessna has done in the past -- a free
year's fuel. Or more.

--
Waddling Eagle
World Famous Flight Instructor

"C J Campbell" wrote in message
news:2008040618011616807-christophercampbell@hotmailcom...
On 2008-04-04 19:47:30 -0700, "Jay Honeck"
said:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we
paid $5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid
over $300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd
see.

What were you paying in the past? What % of your operating expense is gas?

Try $5.11 everyday (CYS).


That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must
gas go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time?

If you use an airplane for business, you can't hang up the headphones. OTOH,
I'm expanding my business into the oil producing regions where the RE market
is still pretty good (though mortgages are harder to get).

Anyone care to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in
America?

When it's too expensive to pursue as a HOBBY?

Considering that there are waiting lists for people to buy a Cessna 172
for nearly $300,000, almost double what one cost a couple years ago, I
doubt that the price of gas is going to have much effect on aviation, even
if it goes to $100/gallon. The only effect will be to make the complaints
louder.

The cost of gas is a pittance compared to whatever else people spend on an
airplane. If gas starts to hurt airplane sales, the manufacturers will
simply offer incentives like Cessna has done in the past -- a free year's
fuel. Or more.

Operating cost is early 2007 were $185 an hour and fuel for me was an
average of $3.78; now it's $5.11 - at 15GPH my new cost is $20 more an hour
($205). My TOTAL cost is 11% higher.

Fortunately, I can just adjust my margins to match and my tax accountant has
new numbers to work with.

Matt Barrow
Performance Homes, LLC
Cheyenne, WY

In article "Matt W. Barrow" writes:

"C J Campbell" wrote
Considering that there are waiting lists for people to buy a Cessna 172
for nearly $300,000, almost double what one cost a couple years ago, I
doubt that the price of gas is going to have much effect on aviation, even
if it goes to $100/gallon. The only effect will be to make the complaints
louder.

The cost of gas is a pittance compared to whatever else people spend on an
airplane. If gas starts to hurt airplane sales, the manufacturers will
simply offer incentives like Cessna has done in the past -- a free year's
fuel. Or more.

Operating cost is early 2007 were $185 an hour and fuel for me was an
average of $3.78; now it's $5.11 - at 15GPH my new cost is $20 more an hour
($205). My TOTAL cost is 11% higher.

Fortunately, I can just adjust my margins to match and my tax accountant has
new numbers to work with.

The problem is that costs go up for more than just gas. The local airport
had been raising their tie-down rates tied to the consumer price index, though
they are now talking of raising it much faster than that. Even tied to CPI,
the price of energy, food, etc., affect the price of tie-downs.

The mechanic needs to buy gasoline to get to work, and live his life. He
needs to buy food, clothes, etc. As these become more expensive, he has to
raise his prices to maintain his margins.

Those who manufacture and deliver aircraft parts need to raise their prices,
because their costs have gone up, both for the product, and for basic survival.

The food went up because the folks who deliver it pay more for gas, and for
everything else they need; the folks who retail it likewise have higher costs.
Even the folks who farm it need to fuel the tractors, feed themselves, buy
those pesky clothes, etc. They need to charge more. Conversion of food crops
to fuel crops for ethanol makes the food problem worse, but pushing up food
prices helps the farmers some.

When the price of energy goes up, so does a lot of other stuff that depends
on it, directly or indirectly.

For those who cannot pass on their increased costs, the choices are fly
cheaper, fly less, or don't fly at all.

I belive that we could make energy less expensive in this country, if we
had the will to do so.

Alan

On Sun, 6 Apr 2008 18:01:16 -0700, C J Campbell
wrote:

Considering that there are waiting lists for people to buy a Cessna 172
for nearly $300,000, almost double what one cost a couple years ago, I
doubt that the price of gas is going to have much effect on aviation,
even if it goes to $100/gallon. The only effect will be to make the
complaints louder.

Must be a wide definitoion of "a couple" - they've been over $250k
factory new since at least 2001. I also know some dealers with 07 and
08 models on the floor which they'd let you pick up right this minute
if they could. I guess with the territory system unless your dealer
is willing to work out a deal with another dealer to swap delivery
slots, you can have areas where people are waiting and areas with
inventory sitting on ramps which they can't sell to anyone outside
their area until (2?) years after they've inventoried it.

The cost of gas is a pittance compared to whatever else people spend on
an airplane. If gas starts to hurt airplane sales, the manufacturers
will simply offer incentives like Cessna has done in the past -- a free
year's fuel. Or more.

Actually, just to pick a nit, they gave out a gas card from
MultiService with a credit on it of (I forget, couple thousand?) and
you burned it off within two years or lost anything that was left on
it, so it could have lasted you 6 months or 2 years, depending on your
flying habits. The point that they'll adjust the price of acquisition
somehow does stand.