Future of Electronics In Aviation

On Jun 22, 2:01 am, Le Chaud Lapin wrote:

But at least it shows that, if someone builds something that consumers
will want, before the consumers know what it is, the consumers will
still want it.

In case of low-cost PAV, it is already known that the consumers will
want it.

Just like the Segway. I have seen ONE of those things. Really
popular. Everybody wanted one, didn't they?

Dan

On Jun 22, 1:14*pm, wrote:
On Jun 22, 2:01 am, Le Chaud Lapin wrote:

But at least it shows that, if someone builds something that consumers
will want, before the consumers know what it is, the consumers will
still want it.

In case of low-cost PAV, it is already known that the consumers will
want it.

* * * Just like the Segway. I have seen ONE of those things. Really
popular. Everybody wanted one, didn't they?

Not sure if they did. I remember there was a lot of interest, but one
must not confuse intellectual curiosity with inclination to purchase.
The average consumer simply does not have an extra $5000US ($10,000US
in France) for a vehicle that moves slower than the average teenager
can run (~20km/h, 12.5mph) and requires 4-6 hours to charge for a
range of up to 40km.

By contrast, here is a machine that is 1/10 of the cost that does,
with some exceptions, the same thing. With this alternative, unlike
with the segway, the human actually has to balance himself/herself to
keep from falling:

http://urbanscooters.com/cgi-bin/urb...ml?id=7wbs5GVf

The value proposition is a bit hard to swallow. Last year I paid $8100
for a VFR-800, a machine with top speed of 260km/hr, outrageously
generous fun during acceleration and cornering, able to carry a
passenger, and has essentially unlimited range with quick refueling.
It does not do well on cobblestone streets or on sidewalks in city
parks, but, when in such environments, I prefer to walk.

This is why objectivity in assessing the value of the product is
important.

If someone were to make a PAV that did not cost 10x that of a low-end
kit plane, but was roughly in line with cost of automobile, with all
the features outlined by NASA/CAFE/PAV, consumers would respond with
purchases (or rentals at least).

-Le Chaud Lapin-

Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
On Jun 22, 1:14 pm, wrote:
On Jun 22, 2:01 am, Le Chaud Lapin wrote:

But at least it shows that, if someone builds something that consumers
will want, before the consumers know what it is, the consumers will
still want it.
In case of low-cost PAV, it is already known that the consumers will
want it.
Just like the Segway. I have seen ONE of those things. Really
popular. Everybody wanted one, didn't they?

Not sure if they did. I remember there was a lot of interest, but one
must not confuse intellectual curiosity with inclination to purchase.
The average consumer simply does not have an extra $5000US ($10,000US
in France) for a vehicle that moves slower than the average teenager
can run (~20km/h, 12.5mph) and requires 4-6 hours to charge for a
range of up to 40km.


The exact words used in the pre-launch hype surrounding the Segway were,
'Revolutionary and will change the way the world travels." Pretty much
exactly what you are saying about PAVs.

On Jun 23, 11:57*am, Gig 601Xl Builder
wrote:
Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
On Jun 22, 1:14 pm, wrote:
On Jun 22, 2:01 am, Le Chaud Lapin wrote:

But at least it shows that, if someone builds something that consumers
will want, before the consumers know what it is, the consumers will
still want it.
In case of low-cost PAV, it is already known that the consumers will
want it.
* * * Just like the Segway. I have seen ONE of those things. Really
popular. Everybody wanted one, didn't they?

Not sure if they did. *I remember there was a lot of interest, but one
must not confuse intellectual curiosity with inclination to purchase.
The average consumer simply does not have an extra $5000US ($10,000US
in France) for a vehicle that moves slower than the average teenager
can run (~20km/h, 12.5mph) and requires 4-6 hours to charge for a
range of up to 40km.

The exact words used in the pre-launch hype surrounding the Segway were,
* 'Revolutionary and will change the way the world travels." Pretty much
exactly what you are saying about PAVs

The difference is that there is already a market for PAV's. The
question is whether anyone (not just pilots in rec.aviation.pilot, but
anyone anyone), would want a PAV that satisfied the criteria outlined
by NASA/CAFE.

My most expensive round-trip ticket to Paris cost $2016US. I sat next
to a couple who was angry for most of 10+ hour flight because I asked
them to relinquish my (pre-allocated) window seat, preventing them
from using it as a bed for their screaming child.

Many people already need to fly from one location to another, and
would be willing to pay $50,000 for ownership of a vehicle that could
get them to destination safely and comfortably (no headset). They
probably would not pay $500,000 for a the same machine, and certainly
not $1+ milllion, which is what is required for a near-equivalent of
B777 experience.

Some people might have paid $300-$500, maybe a bit less, for a machine
that barely moves faster than we walk, but not $5000.

Segway is is too expensive for what it offers.

-Le Chaud Lapin-

Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
On Jun 23, 11:57 am, Gig 601Xl Builder
wrote:
Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
On Jun 22, 1:14 pm, wrote:
On Jun 22, 2:01 am, Le Chaud Lapin wrote:
But at least it shows that, if someone builds something that consumers
will want, before the consumers know what it is, the consumers will
still want it.
In case of low-cost PAV, it is already known that the consumers will
want it.
Just like the Segway. I have seen ONE of those things. Really
popular. Everybody wanted one, didn't they?
Not sure if they did. I remember there was a lot of interest, but one
must not confuse intellectual curiosity with inclination to purchase.
The average consumer simply does not have an extra $5000US ($10,000US
in France) for a vehicle that moves slower than the average teenager
can run (~20km/h, 12.5mph) and requires 4-6 hours to charge for a
range of up to 40km.
The exact words used in the pre-launch hype surrounding the Segway were,
'Revolutionary and will change the way the world travels." Pretty much
exactly what you are saying about PAVs

The difference is that there is already a market for PAV's. The
question is whether anyone (not just pilots in rec.aviation.pilot, but
anyone anyone), would want a PAV that satisfied the criteria outlined
by NASA/CAFE.

No there isn't. But if you can at least support the statement.




My most expensive round-trip ticket to Paris cost $2016US. I sat next
to a couple who was angry for most of 10+ hour flight because I asked
them to relinquish my (pre-allocated) window seat, preventing them
from using it as a bed for their screaming child.

Many people already need to fly from one location to another, and
would be willing to pay $50,000 for ownership of a vehicle that could
get them to destination safely and comfortably (no headset). They
probably would not pay $500,000 for a the same machine, and certainly
not $1+ milllion, which is what is required for a near-equivalent of
B777 experience.


Those people who flew first class with you certainly aren't going to fly
their flying car to France.


Some people might have paid $300-$500, maybe a bit less, for a machine
that barely moves faster than we walk, but not $5000.

Segway is is too expensive for what it offers.

-Le Chaud Lapin-

As opposed to your PAV which isn't and can't be offered.