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Flash wrote:
"Gig 601Xl Builder" wrote in message
...
wrote:
To All:

I got a couple of messages from fellows who did not agree with my
opinion of the effect the bail-out would have. I recommended they
read:

http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html

Those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it.

-R.S.Hoover
I've got a degree in Economics and I don't have a clue how this is going
to all shake out. Mainly because what this really is is the largest
nationalization of private enterprise in the history of man.

To make it worse it is being done by the largest economy in history at a
time when the world's economies are more tied to each other than ever
before.

Nobody from Alan Greenspan to a bum on the street can really tell you
with any degree of certainty how this will effect the US and the World in
the long term. They don't have computer models for this.

Anyone from either side of the political spectrum that says they know what
will happen is full of crap.



OK, Gig, we are in agreement.......

You have a degree in economics (I do not) but, we agree, neither of us have
a clue....

That this manuver is gigantic, and historic, is also agreed.

Asking Alan Greenspan OR the bum on the street will only get you opinion,
won't it? One might be "educated opinion", but nevertheless, opinion - not
divine prescience. And do we HAVE to have a computer model before we can
make a rational thought or concious act?

Well, when you are going do do something that will have a huge and very
long lasting impact on the state of the world it ain't a bad idea to
have at least a wild guess as to the outcome.

This plan was thought up in less time than I spent mounting my prop this
weekend. On Monday the 15th a conference call was held among the Fed,
AIG and several banks. At that time the Fed said there would be know
bail-out. That changed by the next day. How much time does that leave
for a rational thought or conscious act to be rationally thought out?



As for asking politicians for advice, their opinions, or a true glimpse of
the future, we will both agree again, is pointless.

Pointless but the only option because if you read section 8 of the
proposed law you will find this little gem.

“Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are
non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be
reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.”



So me, I'm going to consult the tea leaves, look carefully at the wooly-bear
caterpillars, and count the fur in the tails of the grey-squirrels I shoot
when small-game season opens next month. Then I'll probably go buy a pound
of small-denomination silver coins as my "hedge against inflation", although
buying gold probably would be a bettr choice.

I remember my uncle telling me that when his unit rolled through Germany in
the final stages of WW II, that black pepper had been selling for its equal
weight in gold on the civilian market.

Flash

Who knows, we may look back on life in Germany FOR GERMANs in the final
stages of WWII and think of them as the good times.

But that is the point we don't know.

"Gig 601Xl Builder" wrote in message
...
| Flash wrote:
| "Gig 601Xl Builder" wrote in message
| ...
| wrote:
| To All:
|
| I got a couple of messages from fellows who did not agree with my
| opinion of the effect the bail-out would have. I recommended they
| read:
|
| http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html
|
| Those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it.
|
| -R.S.Hoover
| I've got a degree in Economics and I don't have a clue how this is
going
| to all shake out. Mainly because what this really is is the largest
| nationalization of private enterprise in the history of man.
|
| To make it worse it is being done by the largest economy in history at
a
| time when the world's economies are more tied to each other than ever
| before.
|
| Nobody from Alan Greenspan to a bum on the street can really tell you
| with any degree of certainty how this will effect the US and the World
in
| the long term. They don't have computer models for this.
|
| Anyone from either side of the political spectrum that says they know
what
| will happen is full of crap.
|
|
|
| OK, Gig, we are in agreement.......
|
| You have a degree in economics (I do not) but, we agree, neither of us
have
| a clue....
|
| That this manuver is gigantic, and historic, is also agreed.
|
| Asking Alan Greenspan OR the bum on the street will only get you
opinion,
| won't it? One might be "educated opinion", but nevertheless, opinion -
not
| divine prescience. And do we HAVE to have a computer model before we can
| make a rational thought or concious act?
|
| Well, when you are going do do something that will have a huge and very
| long lasting impact on the state of the world it ain't a bad idea to
| have at least a wild guess as to the outcome.
|
| This plan was thought up in less time than I spent mounting my prop this
| weekend. On Monday the 15th a conference call was held among the Fed,
| AIG and several banks. At that time the Fed said there would be know
| bail-out. That changed by the next day. How much time does that leave
| for a rational thought or conscious act to be rationally thought out?
|
|
|
| As for asking politicians for advice, their opinions, or a true glimpse
of
| the future, we will both agree again, is pointless.
|
| Pointless but the only option because if you read section 8 of the
| proposed law you will find this little gem.
|
| “Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are
| non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be
| reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.”
|
|
|
| So me, I'm going to consult the tea leaves, look carefully at the
wooly-bear
| caterpillars, and count the fur in the tails of the grey-squirrels I
shoot
| when small-game season opens next month. Then I'll probably go buy a
pound
| of small-denomination silver coins as my "hedge against inflation",
although
| buying gold probably would be a bettr choice.
|
| I remember my uncle telling me that when his unit rolled through Germany
in
| the final stages of WW II, that black pepper had been selling for its
equal
| weight in gold on the civilian market.
|
| Flash
|
| Who knows, we may look back on life in Germany FOR GERMANs in the final
| stages of WWII and think of them as the good times.
|
| But that is the point we don't know.

Yeah, but the point is, it's a real bargain. It's only going to cost use
about $5000 each.

On Sep 25, 8:09*am, "Mick" #$$#@%%%.^^^ wrote:

Yeah, but the point is, it's a real bargain. It's only going to cost use
about $5000 each.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

You'd better read the fine print :-) Based on our present population
the amount is about $7200.

The bottom line is that a debt of $700 BILLION is far more likely to
destroy the American economy than simply letting the banks fail.

-R.S.Hoover

wrote:

The bottom line is that a debt of $700 BILLION is far more likely to
destroy the American economy than simply letting the banks fail.

-R.S.Hoover


Not really. While the $700 billion figure is staggering and can't help
but have a negative effect on the economy up to an including a worse
case situation having the banks fail is pretty much a given if the large
banks start failing.

It is a might happen/will happen issue. Given that you have to go with
the might happen side.

On Sep 25, 10:50*am, " wrote:
On Sep 25, 8:09*am, "Mick" #$$#@%%%.^^^ wrote:

Yeah, but the point is, it's a real bargain. It's only going to cost use
about $5000 each.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

You'd better read the fine print :-) *Based on our present population
the amount is about $7200.

The bottom line is that a debt of $700 BILLION is far more likely to
destroy the American economy than simply letting the banks fail.

-R.S.Hoover

$7200 is only the direct cost. Add "unexpected costs", the inflation
this new "liquidity" WILL cause, the interest on it and the rest of
our national debits (not deficit), and our tax's will only be paying
the interest on what we owe in not too many years. Nice country we
are giving the next generation.
===============================
Leon McAtee
Those that study history are also doomed to repeat it because there
are so many that remain ignorant of both the past and the
present..........IMHO Anyone want to buy some
Tulip bulbs?

The A.C. Davis Financial Recovery Plan

A friend sent this -- interesting indeed

It may be flawed -- but, it is an interesting idea might never work but,
better than rewarding the jerks who got us this mess so before you think
of all the reasons why it won't happen,

allow yourself a moment to fantasize that if it did....




I'm against the $85,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.

Instead, I'm in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a We
Deserve It Dividend.

To make the math simple, let's assume there are 200,000,000 bonafide
U.S. Citizens 18+.

Our population is about 301,000,000 ± counting every man, woman and
child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..

So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billon that equals $425,000.00.

My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a

We Deserve It Dividend.

Of course, it would NOT be tax free. So let's assume a tax rate of 30%.

Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes. That sends
$25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.

But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket. A
husband and wife has $595,000.00.

What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?

Pay off your mortgage – housing crisis solved.

Repay college loans – what a great boost to new grads

Put away money for college – it'll be there

Save in a bank – create money to loan to entrepreneurs.

Buy a new car – create jobs

Invest in the market – capital drives growth

Pay for your parent's medical insurance – health care improves

Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean – or else

Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks
who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is
cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.

If we're going to re-distribute wealth let's really do it...instead of
trickling out a puny $1000.00 ("vote buy") economic incentive that is
being proposed by one of our candidates for President.

If we're going to do an $85 billion bailout, let's bail out every adult
U S Citizen 18+!

As for AIG – liquidate it. Sell off its parts. Let American General go
back to being American General. Sell off the real estate. Let the
private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.

Here's my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn't.

Sure it's a crazy idea that can "never work."

But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!

How do you spell Economic Boom?

I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion We
Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC.

And remember, The Davis plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because
$25.5 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.

Ahhh...I feel so much better getting that off my chest.

Kindest personal regards,

Art A.C.Davis, A Creative Guy & Citizen of the Republic


PS: Feel free to pass this along to your pals as it's either good for a
laugh or a tear or a very sobering thought on how to best use $85 Billion!!

cavelamb himself wrote:
The A.C. Davis Financial Recovery Plan

A friend sent this -- interesting indeed

It may be flawed --
....
So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billon that equals
$425,000.00.

Make that "It is flawed" not "It may be flawed." It is only $425.00 per
person, not $425,000.00. But what's a factor of a thousand among friends? I
think this A.C. Davis has the proper math skills to become Secretary of the
Treasury!

;-)

Jim Logajan wrote:

cavelamb himself wrote:

The A.C. Davis Financial Recovery Plan

A friend sent this -- interesting indeed

It may be flawed --

...

So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billon that equals
$425,000.00.


Make that "It is flawed" not "It may be flawed." It is only $425.00 per
person, not $425,000.00. But what's a factor of a thousand among friends? I
think this A.C. Davis has the proper math skills to become Secretary of the
Treasury!

;-)

I didn't even check it.
But you are exactly right.

Still, I like his plane better...

--

Richard

(remove the X to email)

"Jim Logajan" wrote in message
.. .
cavelamb himself wrote:
The A.C. Davis Financial Recovery Plan

A friend sent this -- interesting indeed

It may be flawed --
...
So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billon that equals
$425,000.00.

Make that "It is flawed" not "It may be flawed." It is only $425.00 per
person, not $425,000.00. But what's a factor of a thousand among friends?
I
think this A.C. Davis has the proper math skills to become Secretary of
the
Treasury!

;-)
You are exactly right, and those "slide rule" errors are even more annoying
now that nobody uses slide rules!

Regrettably, however, that is not the worst part of the discussion about the
$85 billion AIG issue, nor of the closely related (IMHO) $700 billion
mortgage fiasco. The greater problem is that, even now, a search on the
public Internet does not reveal much information about the basis of the
numbers--instead a search yields "talking points" for a "debate" and a near
total lack of substance.

Of the two, the AIG case is the easier to parse: AIG got into the business
of "insuring" the mutual bond positions of retirement funds as a "hedge"
that (apparently) allowed the funds to "overweight" that portion of their
portfolios. However, that does not tell us whether the crisis was due to
mutual bond defaults or simply rerating of the bonds; nor does it tell us
whether $85 billion is the total asset value, a potential loss projection
based upon a presumption of sale during a period of default*, or some other
line of reasoning. About all that we do "know" is that the federal
government is simply stepping in as a guarantor, and gaining an equity
position, during this period, and that there is a presumption that they will
eventually sell back out of their position at a profit--much as they did in
the cases of Chrysler Corporation about 25 years ago.

The $700 mortgage bailout is much harder to sort out. I could not find out
what it covers, nor why, in the time I could alot to it--and even found one
assertion that it is simply a number "out of thin air" that was made large
enough to cover anything that could possibly be found in the financial data
when it is complied and analysed. Ultimately, they will simply have to
solve the immediate problem--probably in increments.

That's not the end, because the underlying problems with mortgage guidelines
have not received enough discussion; nor have the merits of rising home
prices and related increases in ad valorem taxes....