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![]() There is a scenario I can't quite figure under the new rule. *Say ALL the finishers are MT15 and very short distances but a bunch of pilots were able to rack up long distances but not get home. This can happen with big weather systems moving through. The choice you have is stay close to home so you can finish and risk a short flight or follow the good conditions on the chance that you'll be able to get back home later. I think under the new rules you might make the bet that none of the long flights finish, but if even one of them succeeds it radically changes the scoresheet because all the short finishers see their scores cut down dramatically as BESTDIST goes dramatically up. Also all the long non-finishers would see their scores go up if even one of them gets home. It also potentially gets tangled up in devaluation depending on the ratios. I guess versus the old system it gives you some additional incentive to be the hero and get around on a long flight even in dicey conditions. Any insights? 9B That's pretty much right. Important note: In US rules, when there are any "finishers", BESTDIST is still calculated as the best distance a finisher achieves. BESTDIST does not reflect very long landouts. Thus, if the "finishers" go 100 miles, but some other guys all go 400 miles and land out, BESTDIST is still 100 miles. The long landouts still only get 100 miles of distance points. This is a separate problem, which maybe we'll think about fixing someday, or maybe not. (Changing that to BESTDIST = the long landout leads to another can of worms in terms of unintended clever strategies.) One at a time, this is confusing enough! The new rule only changes the scores of very short "finishers" when there are other faster finishers. That's a good principle to keep in mind. For example, it does not change the scores of your long landouts above, nor of the 400 mile guys if one of them makes it home. The only change is, a slow finisher is guaranteed the best of HIS distance points or his speed points, whereas he used to be guaranteed the best BESTDIST distance points, or his speed points. That's it. What happens then is pretty much what you describe. If none of the 400 mile guys make it back, the 100 mile guys win the day, and the 400 mile guys ony get distance points as if they flew 100 miles. (And the day will be strongly devalued). If one of the 400 mile guys squeaks back to the airport, under old rules the 100 mile "finishers" would have gotten 630 points, equal to a 399 mile landout. Under the new rule the 100 mile "finishers" will get 100/400*600 + 30 = 180 points, just as if they had landed out at an airport at 100 miles, plus 5 points extra. So, as you describe, the change does not guarantee that going longer will win the day. But it does rather substantially increase the odds that going longer will pay off. If you make it back after going longer, you'll destroy the scores of the 100 mile guys. If you landout at 399 but someone else goes 400 miles and makes it back, then your 399 mile landout will be worth 599 (+25) points, and you will destroy the 100 mile guys. This is an important strategic consideration that pilots need to be aware of. Keeping going under a TAT / MAT rather than stopping very early--say 1 -2 hours into a 3 hour task--is now a much more attractive option. It's almost back to the way you would have thought about it under an AST, where you would not stop and land at an airport along the way unless things were really pretty desperate. It's not quite that much. There is still a bit stronger incentive to cut short a TAT/MAT than an AST because, as you describe, you can gamble that nobody goes longer and makes it back. But that gamble faces longer odds than it used to. I don't think of this as a "change" I think of it as "fixing an uninteded bug in the rules." We were happy with the tradeoffs pilots were making under AST regarding stopping at an airport or keeping going. When we ported the scoring formulas to TAT/MAT, as I view it, we inadvertently opened this clever strategy to go back after 1 hour and guarantee yourself 630 points even if the winners do 400 miles. Loophole now closed. John Cochrane BB |
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On Dec 17, 11:33*am, John Cochrane
wrote: There is a scenario I can't quite figure under the new rule. *Say ALL the finishers are MT15 and very short distances but a bunch of pilots were able to rack up long distances but not get home. This can happen with big weather systems moving through. The choice you have is stay close to home so you can finish and risk a short flight or follow the good conditions on the chance that you'll be able to get back home later. I think under the new rules you might make the bet that none of the long flights finish, but if even one of them succeeds it radically changes the scoresheet because all the short finishers see their scores cut down dramatically as BESTDIST goes dramatically up. Also all the long non-finishers would see their scores go up if even one of them gets home. It also potentially gets tangled up in devaluation depending on the ratios. I guess versus the old system it gives you some additional incentive to be the hero and get around on a long flight even in dicey conditions. Any insights? 9B That's pretty much right. Important note: In US rules, when there are any "finishers", BESTDIST is still calculated as the best distance a finisher achieves. BESTDIST does not reflect very long landouts. Thus, if the "finishers" go 100 miles, but some other guys all go 400 miles and land out, BESTDIST is still 100 miles. The long landouts still only get 100 miles of distance points. This is a separate problem, which maybe we'll think about fixing someday, or maybe not. (Changing that to BESTDIST = the long landout leads to another can of worms in terms of unintended clever strategies.) One at a time, this is confusing enough! The new rule only changes the scores of very short "finishers" when there are other faster finishers. That's a good principle to keep in mind. For example, it does not change the scores of your long landouts above, nor of the 400 mile guys if one of them makes it home. The only change is, a slow finisher is guaranteed the best of HIS distance points or his speed points, whereas he used to be guaranteed the best BESTDIST distance points, or his speed points. That's it. What *happens then is pretty much what you describe. If none of the 400 mile guys make it back, the 100 mile guys win the day, and the 400 mile guys ony get distance points as if they flew 100 miles. (And the day will be strongly devalued). If one of the 400 mile guys squeaks back to the airport, under old rules the 100 mile "finishers" would have gotten 630 points, equal to a 399 mile landout. Under the new rule the 100 mile "finishers" will get 100/400*600 + 30 = 180 points, just as if they had landed out at an airport at 100 miles, plus 5 points extra. So, as you describe, the change does not guarantee that going longer will win the day. But it does rather substantially increase the odds that going longer will pay off. If you make it back after going longer, you'll destroy the scores of the 100 mile guys. If you landout at 399 but someone else goes 400 miles and makes it back, then your 399 mile landout will be worth 599 (+25) points, and you will destroy the 100 mile guys. This is an important strategic consideration that pilots need to be aware of. Keeping going under a TAT / MAT rather than stopping very early--say 1 -2 hours into a 3 hour task--is now a much more attractive option. It's almost back to the way you would have thought about it under an AST, where you would not stop and land at an airport along the way unless things were really pretty desperate. It's not quite that much. *There is still a bit stronger incentive to cut short a TAT/MAT than an AST because, as you describe, you can gamble that nobody goes longer and makes it back. But that gamble faces longer odds than it used to. I don't think of this as a "change" I think of it as "fixing an uninteded bug in the rules." We were happy with the tradeoffs pilots were making under AST regarding stopping at an airport or keeping going. When we ported the scoring formulas to TAT/MAT, as I view it, we inadvertently opened this clever strategy to go back after 1 hour and guarantee yourself 630 points even if the winners do 400 miles. Loophole now closed. John Cochrane BB John, thanks for the pointer to the poll - after some head-scratching I finally figured out the proposed scoring column for the examples shown. Now all I have to do is completely re-write the talk I'm doing at the SSA convention. Adding insult to injury, I tried to give this talk at last year's convention, but the scheduling guru couldn't fit it in. Had that happened, I would have been safely out of town before the rules got changed ;-). Timing is everything .... TA |
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On Dec 17, 8:33*am, John Cochrane
wrote: There is a scenario I can't quite figure under the new rule. *Say ALL the finishers are MT15 and very short distances but a bunch of pilots were able to rack up long distances but not get home. This can happen with big weather systems moving through. The choice you have is stay close to home so you can finish and risk a short flight or follow the good conditions on the chance that you'll be able to get back home later. I think under the new rules you might make the bet that none of the long flights finish, but if even one of them succeeds it radically changes the scoresheet because all the short finishers see their scores cut down dramatically as BESTDIST goes dramatically up. Also all the long non-finishers would see their scores go up if even one of them gets home. It also potentially gets tangled up in devaluation depending on the ratios. I guess versus the old system it gives you some additional incentive to be the hero and get around on a long flight even in dicey conditions. Any insights? 9B That's pretty much right. Important note: In US rules, when there are any "finishers", BESTDIST is still calculated as the best distance a finisher achieves. BESTDIST does not reflect very long landouts. Thus, if the "finishers" go 100 miles, but some other guys all go 400 miles and land out, BESTDIST is still 100 miles. The long landouts still only get 100 miles of distance points. This is a separate problem, which maybe we'll think about fixing someday, or maybe not. (Changing that to BESTDIST = the long landout leads to another can of worms in terms of unintended clever strategies.) One at a time, this is confusing enough! The new rule only changes the scores of very short "finishers" when there are other faster finishers. That's a good principle to keep in mind. For example, it does not change the scores of your long landouts above, nor of the 400 mile guys if one of them makes it home. The only change is, a slow finisher is guaranteed the best of HIS distance points or his speed points, whereas he used to be guaranteed the best BESTDIST distance points, or his speed points. That's it. What *happens then is pretty much what you describe. If none of the 400 mile guys make it back, the 100 mile guys win the day, and the 400 mile guys ony get distance points as if they flew 100 miles. (And the day will be strongly devalued). If one of the 400 mile guys squeaks back to the airport, under old rules the 100 mile "finishers" would have gotten 630 points, equal to a 399 mile landout. Under the new rule the 100 mile "finishers" will get 100/400*600 + 30 = 180 points, just as if they had landed out at an airport at 100 miles, plus 5 points extra. So, as you describe, the change does not guarantee that going longer will win the day. But it does rather substantially increase the odds that going longer will pay off. If you make it back after going longer, you'll destroy the scores of the 100 mile guys. If you landout at 399 but someone else goes 400 miles and makes it back, then your 399 mile landout will be worth 599 (+25) points, and you will destroy the 100 mile guys. This is an important strategic consideration that pilots need to be aware of. Keeping going under a TAT / MAT rather than stopping very early--say 1 -2 hours into a 3 hour task--is now a much more attractive option. It's almost back to the way you would have thought about it under an AST, where you would not stop and land at an airport along the way unless things were really pretty desperate. It's not quite that much. *There is still a bit stronger incentive to cut short a TAT/MAT than an AST because, as you describe, you can gamble that nobody goes longer and makes it back. But that gamble faces longer odds than it used to. I don't think of this as a "change" I think of it as "fixing an uninteded bug in the rules." We were happy with the tradeoffs pilots were making under AST regarding stopping at an airport or keeping going. When we ported the scoring formulas to TAT/MAT, as I view it, we inadvertently opened this clever strategy to go back after 1 hour and guarantee yourself 630 points even if the winners do 400 miles. Loophole now closed. John Cochrane BB Just to clarify, is BESTDIST the longest distance of any finisher or the distance of the fastest finisher? I think it's a pretty big difference. 9B |
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![]() Just to clarify, is BESTDIST the longest distance of any finisher or the distance of the fastest finisher? I think it's a pretty big difference. 9B 11.6.9 Best Distance: If there are no Finishers, BESTDIST is the greatest scored distance achieved by any pilot. Otherwise, BESTDIST is the larger of the greatest scored distance achieved by any Finisher and (BESTSPD * MINTIME). |
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On Dec 18, 5:33*am, John Cochrane
wrote: The only change is, a slow finisher is guaranteed the best of HIS distance points or his speed points, whereas he used to be guaranteed the best BESTDIST distance points, or his speed points. That's it. Is it maybe time to retire the separate concepts of speed points and distance points? IN particular, wouldn't it be better if outlanders got credit for speed too? As far as i can see, the only reason not to is the practical one that in the old days there was no evidence of exactly when an outlanding was made, making it impossible to reliably calculate speed to that point. In these days of GPS traces that is no longer true. It's 01:40 here and I only gave this a few minute's thought, but I can't immedately see major unfairness in the following proposal: raw points = S * (D - L/2) Whe D = the scoring distance as defined by the task rules L = the distance from the landing point to the finish line (0 for finishers) S = speed achieved over the scoring distance The raw points could be simply kept as is and totaled up over the contest (this would devalue bad days in a natural way), or the maximum could be scaled to 1000 or some lesser value according to existing day devaluation rules. This seems to me to have the following nice characteristics: - if you fly the same distance as someone else then it's better to do it faster, regardless of whether you both complete the task or both land out at the same place. - if you achieve the same speed as someone else then it's better to maintain that speed over a longer distance. - speeds tend to have a fairly small spread on a given day (except for those who spend a long time on a low save), so the preferred method to more points is more distance. - the penalty for landing out just short of the airfield is very small, reducing the incentive to try to stretch and just scrape over the fence. - once you stop making forward progress it's better to land out promptly than to waste a lot of time scratching at low level. This may be true even in the case of an eventual save. (I'd have to run the figures) - if faced with a long, slow, skinny, final glide it may in fact be better to fly quickly to a good outlanding area that you can reach easily. (once again I'd have to run the figures) - distance flown away from home counts for half, distance towards home counts for 1.5x. If you're going to land after 100 miles it's better to do it out and return than straight out. What do you think? Totally stupid? Perverse and unsafe incentives I didn't notice? Too complex? I'm certainly prepared to debate whether that "2" is the right value. For sure the number needs to be bigger than 1, otherwise a straight out task is worth zero. I also wondered about a slight variation: raw points = (D^2 - (L^2)/2) / T Where T is the flight time. This is less different than it first appears. S = D/T, so the first version can also be given as: raw points = (D/T) * (D - L/2) = (D^2 - DL/2) / T This is the same in the event of a straight out flight but the alternative version penalises landouts near home relatively much less after a long flight than after a short one. |
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Is it maybe time to retire the separate concepts of speed points and
distance points? IN particular, wouldn't it be better if outlanders got credit for speed too? As far as i can see, the only reason not to is the practical one that in the old days there was no evidence of exactly when an outlanding was made, making it impossible to reliably calculate speed to that point. In these days of GPS traces that is no longer true. It's 01:40 here and I only gave this a few minute's thought, but I can't immedately see major unfairness in the following proposal: raw points = S * (D - L/2) Whe D = the scoring distance as defined by the task rules L = the distance from the landing point to the finish line (0 for finishers) S = speed achieved over the scoring distance The raw points could be simply kept as is and totaled up over the contest (this would devalue bad days in a natural way), or the maximum could be scaled to 1000 or some lesser value according to existing day devaluation rules. This seems to me to have the following nice characteristics: - if you fly the same distance as someone else then it's better to do it faster, regardless of whether you both complete the task or both land out at the same place. - if you achieve the same speed as someone else then it's better to maintain that speed over a longer distance. - speeds tend to have a fairly small spread on a given day (except for those who spend a long time on a low save), so the preferred method to more points is more distance. - the penalty for landing out just short of the airfield is very small, reducing the incentive to try to stretch and just scrape over the fence. - once you stop making forward progress it's better to land out promptly than to waste a lot of time scratching at low level. This may be true even in the case of an eventual save. (I'd have to run the figures) - if faced with a long, slow, skinny, final glide it may in fact be better to fly quickly to a good outlanding area that you can reach easily. (once again I'd have to run the figures) - distance flown away from home counts for half, distance towards home counts for 1.5x. If you're going to land after 100 miles it's better to do it out and return than straight out. What do you think? Totally stupid? Perverse and unsafe incentives I didn't notice? Too complex? I'm certainly prepared to debate whether that "2" is the right value. For sure the number needs to be bigger than 1, otherwise a straight out task is worth zero. I also wondered about a slight variation: raw points = (D^2 - (L^2)/2) / T Where T is the flight time. This is less different than it first appears. S = D/T, so the first version can also be given as: raw points = (D/T) * (D - L/2) *= *(D^2 - DL/2) / T This is the same in the event of a straight out flight but the alternative version penalises landouts near home relatively much less after a long flight than after a short one. The main problem I see is that "speed to landout" can encourage you to dive to the dirt, and needs a major calculation to figure out when that's the right thing to do. At least my landouts seem to be preceded by a half hour of grinding away in half knot lift at 1000 feet. (And too many of my contest flights are interrupted by a half hour of griding away in half knot lift!). A pilot gets a lot more points in this system if he gives up and lands right away. Maybe the answer then that the scoring program should evaluate every possible "end of the flight" and give you the one with the most points. For example, 80 mph to 90 miles is better than the eventual 50 mph to 95 miles where you eventually land. But that seems pretty complicated, and still leaves some hard strategizing for the pilot on when it's worth stopping to work weak lift. This is worth thinking about. Our points formulas are horribly complex, but every good idea for simplfying them hits a brick wall on how do you treat landouts vs. speed. Maybe zero points for landout, but you can drop your worst day? Well, the other problem is that we've built up a lot of experience with the current system, so radical changes are dangerous. John Cochrane |
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On Dec 18, 9:49*am, John Cochrane
wrote: Is it maybe time to retire the separate concepts of speed points and distance points? IN particular, wouldn't it be better if outlanders got credit for speed too? As far as i can see, the only reason not to is the practical one that in the old days there was no evidence of exactly when an outlanding was made, making it impossible to reliably calculate speed to that point. In these days of GPS traces that is no longer true. It's 01:40 here and I only gave this a few minute's thought, but I can't immedately see major unfairness in the following proposal: raw points = S * (D - L/2) Whe D = the scoring distance as defined by the task rules L = the distance from the landing point to the finish line (0 for finishers) S = speed achieved over the scoring distance The raw points could be simply kept as is and totaled up over the contest (this would devalue bad days in a natural way), or the maximum could be scaled to 1000 or some lesser value according to existing day devaluation rules. This seems to me to have the following nice characteristics: - if you fly the same distance as someone else then it's better to do it faster, regardless of whether you both complete the task or both land out at the same place. - if you achieve the same speed as someone else then it's better to maintain that speed over a longer distance. - speeds tend to have a fairly small spread on a given day (except for those who spend a long time on a low save), so the preferred method to more points is more distance. - the penalty for landing out just short of the airfield is very small, reducing the incentive to try to stretch and just scrape over the fence. - once you stop making forward progress it's better to land out promptly than to waste a lot of time scratching at low level. This may be true even in the case of an eventual save. (I'd have to run the figures) - if faced with a long, slow, skinny, final glide it may in fact be better to fly quickly to a good outlanding area that you can reach easily. (once again I'd have to run the figures) - distance flown away from home counts for half, distance towards home counts for 1.5x. If you're going to land after 100 miles it's better to do it out and return than straight out. What do you think? Totally stupid? Perverse and unsafe incentives I didn't notice? Too complex? I'm certainly prepared to debate whether that "2" is the right value. For sure the number needs to be bigger than 1, otherwise a straight out task is worth zero. I also wondered about a slight variation: raw points = (D^2 - (L^2)/2) / T Where T is the flight time. This is less different than it first appears. S = D/T, so the first version can also be given as: raw points = (D/T) * (D - L/2) *= *(D^2 - DL/2) / T This is the same in the event of a straight out flight but the alternative version penalises landouts near home relatively much less after a long flight than after a short one. The main problem I see is that "speed to landout" can encourage you to dive to the dirt, and needs a major calculation to figure out when that's the right thing to do. At least my landouts seem to be preceded by a half hour of grinding away in half knot lift at 1000 feet. (And too many of my contest flights are interrupted by a half hour of griding away in half knot lift!). A pilot gets a lot more points in this system if he gives up and lands right away. Maybe the answer then that the scoring program should evaluate every possible "end of the flight" and give you the one with the most points. For example, 80 mph to 90 miles is better than the eventual 50 mph to 95 miles where you eventually land. But that seems pretty complicated, and still leaves some hard strategizing for the pilot on when it's worth stopping to work weak lift. This is worth thinking about. Our points formulas are horribly complex, but every good idea for simplfying them hits a brick wall on how do you treat landouts vs. speed. Maybe zero points for landout, but you can drop your worst day? Well, the other problem is that we've built up a lot of experience with the current system, so radical changes are dangerous. John Cochrane How about scoring a finish under min time as a landout at the finish line? No arguing, it's the same as blowing your final glide and landing short. That would create some incentive to stay out on course longer! Kirk 66 |
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On Dec 18, 3:58*pm, "kirk.stant" wrote:
On Dec 18, 9:49*am, John Cochrane wrote: Is it maybe time to retire the separate concepts of speed points and distance points? IN particular, wouldn't it be better if outlanders got credit for speed too? As far as i can see, the only reason not to is the practical one that in the old days there was no evidence of exactly when an outlanding was made, making it impossible to reliably calculate speed to that point. In these days of GPS traces that is no longer true. It's 01:40 here and I only gave this a few minute's thought, but I can't immedately see major unfairness in the following proposal: raw points = S * (D - L/2) Whe D = the scoring distance as defined by the task rules L = the distance from the landing point to the finish line (0 for finishers) S = speed achieved over the scoring distance The raw points could be simply kept as is and totaled up over the contest (this would devalue bad days in a natural way), or the maximum could be scaled to 1000 or some lesser value according to existing day devaluation rules. This seems to me to have the following nice characteristics: - if you fly the same distance as someone else then it's better to do it faster, regardless of whether you both complete the task or both land out at the same place. - if you achieve the same speed as someone else then it's better to maintain that speed over a longer distance. - speeds tend to have a fairly small spread on a given day (except for those who spend a long time on a low save), so the preferred method to more points is more distance. - the penalty for landing out just short of the airfield is very small, reducing the incentive to try to stretch and just scrape over the fence. - once you stop making forward progress it's better to land out promptly than to waste a lot of time scratching at low level. This may be true even in the case of an eventual save. (I'd have to run the figures) - if faced with a long, slow, skinny, final glide it may in fact be better to fly quickly to a good outlanding area that you can reach easily. (once again I'd have to run the figures) - distance flown away from home counts for half, distance towards home counts for 1.5x. If you're going to land after 100 miles it's better to do it out and return than straight out. What do you think? Totally stupid? Perverse and unsafe incentives I didn't notice? Too complex? I'm certainly prepared to debate whether that "2" is the right value. For sure the number needs to be bigger than 1, otherwise a straight out task is worth zero. I also wondered about a slight variation: raw points = (D^2 - (L^2)/2) / T Where T is the flight time. This is less different than it first appears. S = D/T, so the first version can also be given as: raw points = (D/T) * (D - L/2) *= *(D^2 - DL/2) / T This is the same in the event of a straight out flight but the alternative version penalises landouts near home relatively much less after a long flight than after a short one. The main problem I see is that "speed to landout" can encourage you to dive to the dirt, and needs a major calculation to figure out when that's the right thing to do. At least my landouts seem to be preceded by a half hour of grinding away in half knot lift at 1000 feet. (And too many of my contest flights are interrupted by a half hour of griding away in half knot lift!). A pilot gets a lot more points in this system if he gives up and lands right away. Maybe the answer then that the scoring program should evaluate every possible "end of the flight" and give you the one with the most points. For example, 80 mph to 90 miles is better than the eventual 50 mph to 95 miles where you eventually land. But that seems pretty complicated, and still leaves some hard strategizing for the pilot on when it's worth stopping to work weak lift. This is worth thinking about. Our points formulas are horribly complex, but every good idea for simplfying them hits a brick wall on how do you treat landouts vs. speed. Maybe zero points for landout, but you can drop your worst day? Well, the other problem is that we've built up a lot of experience with the current system, so radical changes are dangerous. John Cochrane How about scoring a finish under min time as a landout at the finish line? *No arguing, it's the same as blowing your final glide and landing short. *That would create some incentive to stay out on course longer! Kirk 66 That would be real good for the fastest pilot of the day who came 1 min early. |
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How about scoring a finish under min time as a landout at the finish
line? =A0No arguing, it's the same as blowing your final glide and landing short. =A0That would create some incentive to stay out on course longer! Kirk 66 That would be real good for the fastest pilot of the day who came 1 min early. I for one would be praying that my SN10 had the time right while I cirlced at 501feet 1.01 miles from the finish-------OK finish! ![]() |
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On Dec 19, 5:49*am, John Cochrane
wrote: The main problem I see is that "speed to landout" can encourage you to dive to the dirt, and needs a major calculation to figure out when that's the right thing to do. At least my landouts seem to be preceded by a half hour of grinding away in half knot lift at 1000 feet. (And too many of my contest flights are interrupted by a half hour of griding away in half knot lift!). A pilot gets a lot more points in this system if he gives up and lands right away. No, that's not the case. Certainly, once no more forward progress is possible it is best to give up sooner rather than later. But if you're heading home then it's well worth making more progress, even if slowly. For example, suppose you've done 300 miles at 80 mph (3.75 hours) and are now low 100 miles from home. If you land now you'll get 20,000 points. If you press on and make it home for 400 miles total, how slow would you have to be to get the same 20,000 points? The answer is 50 mph average for the whole flight. That's 8 hours total, 4.25 hours for the last 100 miles, average speed for the last 100 miles, 23.5 mph. If you can stay airborne at all then you can probably manage that. (under the alternative formula, in the same situation, you'd need to do the remaining 100 miles at 30.2 mph, for a 56.7 mph overall overage, to get at least the same points as landing out immediately) |
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