Powell on the National Guard

"Cub Driver" wrote in message
...

Yes we had barely enough. And it taxed the manpower. Now we
have that mission, Bosnia and Iraq. Plus a potential war with
China in the near future for control of the far East.

Well, we could shuck Bosnia any day. We don't have a dog in that
fight.

And we can't prepare for a war with China. We could not prevail in
such a war.

Really? While I agree the likelihood of such a conflict is not that great at
present (provided the PRC does not go stupid over Taiwan), I don't really
see how we "could not prevail" in a military conflict with the PRC. It is
not as if prevailing requires us to to put boots-on-the-ground in Beijing.
The PRC is quickly growing to rather like its foreign trade, and its people
are becoming more and more enamored of materialistic possessions. Turning
off their power grid, chunking up their communications systems, and denying
them any viable foreign trade (i.e., naval blockade) would seem to offer a
reasonable chance for us to "prevail" against them. I don't think the PRC
cares to risk finding out the hard way.

In this respect, it is the United States that is the
second-rate nation.

I don't think so. Remaining bound to the Lanchesterian attrition model is
not a very good basis for assessing the capabilities of the modern US
military. China's PLA indeed has oodles of men with rifles; unfortunately,
it has yet to demonstrate a keen ability to operate as an effective joint
combat force, their PLAAF (despite its gain of some Su-27 and Su-30 mounts)
is nowhere near being able to confidently confront US airpower, they are
newcomers to the field of using space operations as a source of leverage in
military operations, and their PLAN would provide little more than target
practice for the USN.

We must get along with China, and China to prosper
must get along with the U.S. Fortunately both countries seem to
understand that.

I like the view posited by some national security wonk a couple of years
back: he described our strategy vis a vis the PRC as "congagement", with us
both containing and engaging the PRC. Engagement generally seems to be
working, but if the PRC *really* thought that the US could not confront them
militarily all bets would be off and they'd be a lot more antagonistic to
their neighbors.

Brooks


all the best -- Dan Ford

On Mon, 23 Feb 2004 09:52:33 -0500, "Kevin Brooks"
wrote:


"Cub Driver" wrote in message
.. .

Yes we had barely enough. And it taxed the manpower. Now we
have that mission, Bosnia and Iraq. Plus a potential war with
China in the near future for control of the far East.

Well, we could shuck Bosnia any day. We don't have a dog in that
fight.

And we can't prepare for a war with China. We could not prevail in
such a war.

Really? While I agree the likelihood of such a conflict is not that great at
present (provided the PRC does not go stupid over Taiwan), I don't really
see how we "could not prevail" in a military conflict with the PRC. It is
not as if prevailing requires us to to put boots-on-the-ground in Beijing.
The PRC is quickly growing to rather like its foreign trade, and its people
are becoming more and more enamored of materialistic possessions. Turning
off their power grid, chunking up their communications systems, and denying
them any viable foreign trade (i.e., naval blockade) would seem to offer a
reasonable chance for us to "prevail" against them. I don't think the PRC
cares to risk finding out the hard way.

The Nov/Dec issue of Foreign Affairs focussed on the "New China" and
offered some rather interesting economic insights. Thinks like more
than 40,000 Nationalist Chinese companies having offices, plants,
branches on the mainland and more than 400,000 Nationalists working on
the mainland. The economic integration of the PRC and ROC is
considerable and despite the political posturing of the leadership,
probably dominant.

The final straw in the PRC coffin of political control will come when
the country is forced to open up for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games
which they fought so strenuously to gain. With literally millions of
visitors from outside the Communist paradise, the leadership will be
forced to be on their best behavior and the masses will be exposed to
the magical world of democracy, free press, information and idea
exchange. "How you gonna keep 'em down on the farm, after they've seen
Paree???"

As for military force, China certainly has manpower and they
definitely have men under arms, but they don't have offensive force
projection capability. They don't have a blue-water navy, they don't
have a meaningful offensive air force and they don't have the
necessary airlift capability to fight a mobile war even within their
own borders.

We must get along with China, and China to prosper
must get along with the U.S. Fortunately both countries seem to
understand that.

I like the view posited by some national security wonk a couple of years
back: he described our strategy vis a vis the PRC as "congagement", with us
both containing and engaging the PRC. Engagement generally seems to be
working, but if the PRC *really* thought that the US could not confront them
militarily all bets would be off and they'd be a lot more antagonistic to
their neighbors.


Amazingly enough, it was the enlightened foreign policy of
Kissinger/Nixon with regard to China (hold the flames regarding other
errors of that administration), that opened the door to dialogue with
China. Precisely the policy of containing militarily without
threatening while engaging economically which inevitably undermines
the shortages and failures of central planning as compared to a free
market.

The poor Chinese leadership never saw K-Mart coming!



Ed Rasimus
Fighter Pilot (USAF-Ret)
"When Thunder Rolled"
Smithsonian Institution Press
ISBN #1-58834-103-8

"Ed Rasimus" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 23 Feb 2004 09:52:33 -0500, "Kevin Brooks"
wrote:


"Cub Driver" wrote in message
.. .

Yes we had barely enough. And it taxed the manpower. Now we
have that mission, Bosnia and Iraq. Plus a potential war with
China in the near future for control of the far East.

Well, we could shuck Bosnia any day. We don't have a dog in that
fight.

And we can't prepare for a war with China. We could not prevail in
such a war.

Really? While I agree the likelihood of such a conflict is not that great
at
present (provided the PRC does not go stupid over Taiwan), I don't really
see how we "could not prevail" in a military conflict with the PRC. It is
not as if prevailing requires us to to put boots-on-the-ground in
Beijing.
The PRC is quickly growing to rather like its foreign trade, and its
people
are becoming more and more enamored of materialistic possessions. Turning
off their power grid, chunking up their communications systems, and
denying
them any viable foreign trade (i.e., naval blockade) would seem to offer
a
reasonable chance for us to "prevail" against them. I don't think the PRC
cares to risk finding out the hard way.

The Nov/Dec issue of Foreign Affairs focussed on the "New China" and
offered some rather interesting economic insights. Thinks like more
than 40,000 Nationalist Chinese companies having offices, plants,
branches on the mainland and more than 400,000 Nationalists working on
the mainland. The economic integration of the PRC and ROC is
considerable and despite the political posturing of the leadership,
probably dominant.

The final straw in the PRC coffin of political control will come when
the country is forced to open up for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games
which they fought so strenuously to gain. With literally millions of
visitors from outside the Communist paradise, the leadership will be
forced to be on their best behavior and the masses will be exposed to
the magical world of democracy, free press, information and idea
exchange. "How you gonna keep 'em down on the farm, after they've seen
Paree???"

Exactly. They are finding that modern capitalism, which they have
increasingly embraced out of economic necessity, has an inherent tendency to
engender individual independence. I think you are also right in noting that
the Party's biggest "threat" is currently from within as a result of this
increased openess.


As for military force, China certainly has manpower and they
definitely have men under arms, but they don't have offensive force
projection capability. They don't have a blue-water navy, they don't
have a meaningful offensive air force and they don't have the
necessary airlift capability to fight a mobile war even within their
own borders.

Dead on target. Even the PLA realizes this, and did as early as after the
first Gulf War, after observing the devastating effects of US precision
engagement against the Iraqis. They are trying to redesign their forces
accordingly, but they have a lot of institutional inertia to overcome, and
it will be some time before thay have both the tools and the expertise to be
considered a first-rate military power.

snip


The poor Chinese leadership never saw K-Mart coming!

Ugh! They can keep K-Mart. That is a prime example of a large company that
forgot its fortunes depended upon customer satisfaction; gimme WallyWorld or
Tar-shay anyday!

Brooks




Ed Rasimus

The PRC is quickly growing to rather like its foreign trade

We rather like it as well

all the best -- Dan Ford
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