Past Results are no Guarantee of Future Performance

On Jan 30, 1:14*pm, Andy wrote:
On Jan 30, 11:12*am, BobW wrote:

What with it being mid-winter in the northern hemisphere, wouldn't it be
wonderful if the 2012 U.S. soaring-activity-year got off to a nice, safe
start?

Not sure what winter has to do with it though. *Unlike other states
wInter is no obstacle to flying here and the winter can often bring in
more flight activity to commercial operators than the summer. *That
(last) weekend here in Arizona was absolutely perfect for training and
intro flights. Clear sky, temperature in mid 70's, and light winds.

Andy

Video posted on local TV station web site shows an apparently almost
undamaged 2-33 that landed in a fairly clear desert area but tangled
with some light scrub brush. It was describes as "southwest' of the
field, which would be consistent with where you would be shortly after
take-off to the west. My guess would be rope break. Not a big deal.

Mike

On 1/30/2012 2:18 PM, Mike the Strike wrote:
On Jan 30, 1:14 pm, wrote:
On Jan 30, 11:12 am, wrote:

What with it being mid-winter in the northern hemisphere, wouldn't it be
wonderful if the 2012 U.S. soaring-activity-year got off to a nice, safe
start?

Not sure what winter has to do with it though. Unlike other states
wInter is no obstacle to flying here and the winter can often bring in
more flight activity to commercial operators than the summer. That
(last) weekend here in Arizona was absolutely perfect for training and
intro flights. Clear sky, temperature in mid 70's, and light winds.

Andy
"Roger all the above," and, "Fully understood." But since the question was (at
least inferentially) asked, what winter has to do with it is its statistical
influence on (i.e. effect of decreasing) ALL U.S. soaring ops.


Video posted on local TV station web site shows an apparently almost
undamaged 2-33 that landed in a fairly clear desert area but tangled
with some light scrub brush. It was describes as "southwest' of the
field, which would be consistent with where you would be shortly after
take-off to the west. My guess would be rope break. Not a big deal.

Mike

Acknowledging FAA preliminary data tends to be rife with "quick-n-dirty"
inaccuracies, "minor" injuries to two people and "substantial" damage to a
sailplane arguably may not be viewed in the "[n]ot a big deal" light by
everyone...say, relatives of those injured, insurance companies, etc.

It would be illuminative to know more of the details of this
crunch...intentional or unintentional release, flight-training or ride, other
influencing circumstances, etc. If the U.S. soaring community can maintain
this as 2012's *only* accident, then I'll more willingly buy into "not a big
deal" as an overall yearly assessment...as distinct from an assessment of this
particular crunch. Accidents are (or should) *always* be considered big deals
by those unfortunate enough to endure them. IMHO.

Bob W.