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On May 27, 3:11*pm, Bill D wrote:
On May 27, 1:40*pm, John Cochrane wrote: On May 27, 10:21*am, Bill D wrote: On May 27, 7:31*am, John Cochrane wrote: On May 26, 4:10*pm, Bill D wrote: The result is small, may be a fluke and it's too soon for the LetsGoGliding campaign to claim credit but, since February, SSA membership has grown at least 50 members every month with 74 new members in April which represents a reversal of the long term downward trend. The number of bumper stickers and trailer graphics on the road is still small. However, if they are part of the reason for growth, it means more of them will work even better. *PLEASE, please, put them on your trailer and car. *There are other aspects of LGG but it's the one thing you can to to help. If the trend holds for another couple of months, it's time to be thinking of new trainers - the Euro is falling. Bill Daniels SSA Growth and Development Committee Chairman This is great news. The SSA typically gains 20% new members every year and loses 22%. Let's all be nice to the newcomers and see if we can get more of them to stick! John Cochrane John, that's going to be the hard part. But it is the crucial part. In fact, we get a lot of people in the front door. But if 1:10 rides take a lesson, 1:10 lessons get a license, 1:10 licenses fly cross country, and 1:10 of those are still with us in 5 years, we're lucky. I am all for the SSA's new growth programs. But I do think we need to add some keep efforts. John Cochrane Yes, John, retention is absolutely critical. If you have some ideas, we'd like to hear them. Form a task force and develop a reasonable cost solution to the Blanik AD that is acceptable to the FAA. This would jump start instruction all over the US immediately. |
#2
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On Monday, May 28, 2012 2:31:23 PM UTC-4, Tim Taylor wrote:
On May 27, 3:11*pm, Bill D wrote: On May 27, 1:40*pm, John Cochrane wrote: On May 27, 10:21*am, Bill D wrote: On May 27, 7:31*am, John Cochrane wrote: On May 26, 4:10*pm, Bill D wrote: The result is small, may be a fluke and it's too soon for the LetsGoGliding campaign to claim credit but, since February, SSA membership has grown at least 50 members every month with 74 new members in April which represents a reversal of the long term downward trend. The number of bumper stickers and trailer graphics on the road is still small. However, if they are part of the reason for growth, it means more of them will work even better. *PLEASE, please, put them on your trailer and car. *There are other aspects of LGG but it's the one thing you can to to help. If the trend holds for another couple of months, it's time to be thinking of new trainers - the Euro is falling. Bill Daniels SSA Growth and Development Committee Chairman This is great news. The SSA typically gains 20% new members every year and loses 22%. Let's all be nice to the newcomers and see if we can get more of them to stick! John Cochrane John, that's going to be the hard part. But it is the crucial part. In fact, we get a lot of people in the front door. But if 1:10 rides take a lesson, 1:10 lessons get a license, 1:10 licenses fly cross country, and 1:10 of those are still with us in 5 years, we're lucky. I am all for the SSA's new growth programs. But I do think we need to add some keep efforts. John Cochrane Yes, John, retention is absolutely critical. If you have some ideas, we'd like to hear them. Form a task force and develop a reasonable cost solution to the Blanik AD that is acceptable to the FAA. This would jump start instruction all over the US immediately. I think the Blanik owners should form a type club and seek a solution of their own. Aircraft from Bonanzas to T34's have done just this and created solutions. The SSA consists of volunteers and a few paid staff members in Hobbs. The SSA appears hardly equipped to engineer a solution with even the best of "task force committees". Why is there no volunteer in the Blanik community uniting you guys? Lane XF |
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On May 28, 7:38*pm, wrote:
On Monday, May 28, 2012 2:31:23 PM UTC-4, Tim Taylor wrote: On May 27, 3:11*pm, Bill D wrote: On May 27, 1:40*pm, John Cochrane wrote: On May 27, 10:21*am, Bill D wrote: On May 27, 7:31*am, John Cochrane wrote: On May 26, 4:10*pm, Bill D wrote: The result is small, may be a fluke and it's too soon for the LetsGoGliding campaign to claim credit but, since February, SSA membership has grown at least 50 members every month with 74 new members in April which represents a reversal of the long term downward trend. The number of bumper stickers and trailer graphics on the road is still small. However, if they are part of the reason for growth, it means more of them will work even better. *PLEASE, please, put them on your trailer and car. *There are other aspects of LGG but it's the one thing you can to to help. If the trend holds for another couple of months, it's time to be thinking of new trainers - the Euro is falling. Bill Daniels SSA Growth and Development Committee Chairman This is great news. The SSA typically gains 20% new members every year and loses 22%. Let's all be nice to the newcomers and see if we can get more of them to stick! John Cochrane John, that's going to be the hard part. But it is the crucial part. In fact, we get a lot of people in the front door. But if 1:10 rides take a lesson, 1:10 lessons get a license, 1:10 licenses fly cross country, and 1:10 of those are still with us in 5 years, we're lucky. I am all for the SSA's new growth programs. But I do think we need to add some keep efforts. John Cochrane Yes, John, retention is absolutely critical. If you have some ideas, we'd like to hear them. Form a task force and develop a reasonable cost solution to the Blanik AD that is acceptable to the FAA. *This would jump start instruction all over the US immediately. I think the Blanik owners should form a type club and seek a solution of their own. *Aircraft from Bonanzas to T34's have done just this and created solutions. *The SSA consists of volunteers and a few paid staff members in Hobbs. *The SSA appears hardly equipped to engineer a solution with even the best of "task force committees". *Why is there no volunteer in the Blanik community uniting you guys? Lane XF I agree with Lane. I would also suggest being realistic with your expectations. The fix, if there ever is one, may be just too expensive for the old L-13. The Bonanza's and T-34's were valuable airplanes whose resale value could cover the cost of fixing them. It's pretty hard to see that happening with a $10,000 glider. In the long run, it may be better to direct your energy and finances toward buying a new glider. |
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On May 28, 8:43*pm, Bill D wrote:
On May 28, 7:38*pm, wrote: On Monday, May 28, 2012 2:31:23 PM UTC-4, Tim Taylor wrote: On May 27, 3:11*pm, Bill D wrote: On May 27, 1:40*pm, John Cochrane wrote: On May 27, 10:21*am, Bill D wrote: On May 27, 7:31*am, John Cochrane wrote: On May 26, 4:10*pm, Bill D wrote: The result is small, may be a fluke and it's too soon for the LetsGoGliding campaign to claim credit but, since February, SSA membership has grown at least 50 members every month with 74 new members in April which represents a reversal of the long term downward trend. The number of bumper stickers and trailer graphics on the road is still small. However, if they are part of the reason for growth, it means more of them will work even better. *PLEASE, please, put them on your trailer and car. *There are other aspects of LGG but it's the one thing you can to to help. If the trend holds for another couple of months, it's time to be thinking of new trainers - the Euro is falling. Bill Daniels SSA Growth and Development Committee Chairman This is great news. The SSA typically gains 20% new members every year and loses 22%. Let's all be nice to the newcomers and see if we can get more of them to stick! John Cochrane John, that's going to be the hard part. But it is the crucial part. In fact, we get a lot of people in the front door. But if 1:10 rides take a lesson, 1:10 lessons get a license, 1:10 licenses fly cross country, and 1:10 of those are still with us in 5 years, we're lucky. I am all for the SSA's new growth programs. But I do think we need to add some keep efforts. John Cochrane Yes, John, retention is absolutely critical. If you have some ideas, we'd like to hear them. Form a task force and develop a reasonable cost solution to the Blanik AD that is acceptable to the FAA. *This would jump start instruction all over the US immediately. I think the Blanik owners should form a type club and seek a solution of their own. *Aircraft from Bonanzas to T34's have done just this and created solutions. *The SSA consists of volunteers and a few paid staff members in Hobbs. *The SSA appears hardly equipped to engineer a solution with even the best of "task force committees". *Why is there no volunteer in the Blanik community uniting you guys? Lane XF I agree with Lane. *I would also suggest being realistic with your expectations. *The fix, if there ever is one, may be just too expensive for the old L-13. *The Bonanza's and T-34's were valuable airplanes whose resale value could cover the cost of fixing them. It's pretty hard to see that happening with a $10,000 glider. *In the long run, it may be better to direct your energy and finances toward buying a new glider. Bill, Your opinion has been known from the beginning. You are sadly out of touch with the majority of small clubs that have been essentially grounded by this AD. I know many operations that have been shut down for the last two years. Maybe you belong to a club with great resources, but many small clubs can not support the debt load required for a new trainer. While you precieve this to be the owners problem, we looked to the SSA for leadership and essentially found none. This has been one of the greatest failures of the SSA to date. I have spoken to all levels of the administration and found a total lack of leadership from our organization. I am serious that if the SSA is serious about growing the sport and number of pilots it will provide the leadership and influence to find a viable solution to this problem. |
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On May 28, 9:05*pm, Tim Taylor wrote:
On May 28, 8:43*pm, Bill D wrote: On May 28, 7:38*pm, wrote: On Monday, May 28, 2012 2:31:23 PM UTC-4, Tim Taylor wrote: On May 27, 3:11*pm, Bill D wrote: On May 27, 1:40*pm, John Cochrane wrote: On May 27, 10:21*am, Bill D wrote: On May 27, 7:31*am, John Cochrane wrote: On May 26, 4:10*pm, Bill D wrote: The result is small, may be a fluke and it's too soon for the LetsGoGliding campaign to claim credit but, since February, SSA membership has grown at least 50 members every month with 74 new members in April which represents a reversal of the long term downward trend. The number of bumper stickers and trailer graphics on the road is still small. However, if they are part of the reason for growth, it means more of them will work even better. *PLEASE, please, put them on your trailer and car. *There are other aspects of LGG but it's the one thing you can to to help. If the trend holds for another couple of months, it's time to be thinking of new trainers - the Euro is falling. Bill Daniels SSA Growth and Development Committee Chairman This is great news. The SSA typically gains 20% new members every year and loses 22%. Let's all be nice to the newcomers and see if we can get more of them to stick! John Cochrane John, that's going to be the hard part. But it is the crucial part. In fact, we get a lot of people in the front door. But if 1:10 rides take a lesson, 1:10 lessons get a license, 1:10 licenses fly cross country, and 1:10 of those are still with us in 5 years, we're lucky. I am all for the SSA's new growth programs. But I do think we need to add some keep efforts. John Cochrane Yes, John, retention is absolutely critical. If you have some ideas, we'd like to hear them. Form a task force and develop a reasonable cost solution to the Blanik AD that is acceptable to the FAA. *This would jump start instruction all over the US immediately. I think the Blanik owners should form a type club and seek a solution of their own. *Aircraft from Bonanzas to T34's have done just this and created solutions. *The SSA consists of volunteers and a few paid staff members in Hobbs. *The SSA appears hardly equipped to engineer a solution with even the best of "task force committees". *Why is there no volunteer in the Blanik community uniting you guys? Lane XF I agree with Lane. *I would also suggest being realistic with your expectations. *The fix, if there ever is one, may be just too expensive for the old L-13. *The Bonanza's and T-34's were valuable airplanes whose resale value could cover the cost of fixing them. It's pretty hard to see that happening with a $10,000 glider. *In the long run, it may be better to direct your energy and finances toward buying a new glider. Bill, Your opinion has been known from the beginning. You are sadly out of touch with the majority of small clubs that have been essentially grounded by this AD. *I know many operations that have been shut down for the last two years. *Maybe you belong to a club with great resources, but many small clubs can not support the debt load required for a new trainer. *While you precieve this to be the owners problem, we looked to the SSA for leadership and essentially found none. *This has been one of the greatest failures of the SSA to date. *I have spoken to all levels of the administration and found a total lack of leadership from our organization. I am serious that if the SSA is serious about growing the sport and number of pilots it will provide the leadership and influence to find a viable solution to this problem. No, Tim, I'm very much in touch with the L-13 problem. We have club just down the airfield with just one grounded Blanik. They're everywhere. It's a very sad thing to see. Like you, I feel the frustration. Solving the trainer shortage brought on by the grounding is right at the top of the LGG proposal. Despite your allegations, SSA Director Steve Northcraft has spent many months doing a heroic job on the L-13 problem. Steve is an Aerospace engineer with much experience in aero structures and many contacts at the FAA. I can't think of anyone better qualified to work the issue. There will most likely be a fix eventually but the cost is probably not going to be what people are hoping for. (I hope I'm wrong about that.) Please try not to shoot the messenger. |
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On May 28, 9:01*pm, Bill D wrote:
There will most likely be a fix eventually but the cost is probably not going to be what people are hoping for. *(I hope I'm wrong about that.) *Please try not to shoot the messenger. I was talking to several folks at a soaring event this weekend, and I had been on the bandwagon of "ditch the L-13s and lets buy something new" for awhile... But their comments really made me see this in a new light: We've been considering the L-13 a $10k - $20k airplane, and the idea of dumping $10k - $15k into it for a fix seems "wrong" because its such a huge percentage of the airplane's value. BUT, there's another way to look at it. Instead of considering the "street value" of the L-13, try considering the cost of the L-13 repair in contrast with the next-better alternative; which is either a Grob-103 or something like a TST-14 "Bonus" or SZD "Perkoz": G-103 = Roughly $35k+ (also likely to be high-time and parts are ??) TST-14 = Unknown, but gotta be at _least_ $60k+ I'm guessing SZD "Perkoz" = Looks like a sweet setup and cheaper than an ASK-21, but its still ~$85k (public quotes of 65,000 euros) So in light of THOSE costs, dropping $10k - $15k on a Blanik is a hell of a lot cheaper. Of course, its still just a short-term fix. Like our aging membership issues, we find ourselves in a hole. This time around its equipment and finances. The US Soaring scene leaned on tired 2-33's (and L-13's) for way too long and did not do a good job of building infrastructure or making stepwise investments in better equipment. So now we have to try to dig ourselves out of a mess. I sincerely hope that more clubs do a better job of long-term financial planning than they have done over the last 20 years; it seems that few people consider charging enough money to put aside funds for re-covering, buying new gear, or any other multi-year goals. On the topic of longer-term solutions, I would love to see what the new Lea County State Bank trainer loans look like. With the EAA and some aviation-oriented banks I can get 7-15 year loan terms on both finished aircraft and even un-built KITS. It seems that similar financing should be available for sailplanes, with long terms given the lengthy service-life that our aircraft experience. I am also curious if any clubs have self-financed new equipment (by taking out loans from members)? Getting ~15 members to each pony up $5k - $10k at 5% interest would get you a new trainer. And promising individuals a ~5% return on their money is a hell of a lot better than most CDs or Money-Market accounts these days; and even better than some stock portfolios! :-P In the "I wish..." column, I'd love to see a non-Euro-currency country out there building an inexpensive (say $50k - $60k) trainer. The aerodynamics nowadays are well-understood so it should be easy to make something simple that has no "bad habits". I've always been told that its the tooling and labor costs - especially the labor costs - that's the issue. So shouldn't it be possible to get a known group of aerodynamic and mechanical engineers together to make a solid design, and then fabricate the darned thing in a region with lower labor costs? I'm thinking South America, India, or another area where technically-oriented people live and they can put something together without major quality-control concerns... Seems like it should be possible (see: Embraer, or some of the aerospace contracting that's done in the Asia-Pacific region). Of course, Windward performance comes to mind for a "local" solution. I'm sure they have a few Duckhawk orders to process right now, but I wonder if Windward could switch from PrePreg to some simpler fiberglass & kevlar layups and operate cheaply enough to put out a reasonably-priced trainer that's sold in US Dollars? OK, enough wishing for now... --Noel P.S. I am sure a few people are thinking about chiming in and saying that a trainer has to be metal because it needs to be tied out. My only response is: If you can get the trainer down to a reasonable price, you can afford a couple of extra thousand dollars for a nice set of covers. Also, Polyurethane is probably a good idea (to make repainting/refinishing easier over the next couple of decades), no? |
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![]() "noel.wade" wrote in message ... On May 28, 9:01 pm, Bill D wrote: snip I am also curious if any clubs have self-financed new equipment (by taking out loans from members)? Getting ~15 members to each pony up $5k - $10k at 5% interest would get you a new trainer. And promising individuals a ~5% return on their money is a hell of a lot better than most CDs or Money-Market accounts these days; and even better than some stock portfolios! :-P My small club did exactly what you suggest. The choice before us was basically pony up for a newer trainer or fold. We borrowed money from seven members and purchased a Grob 103 from a German club. Getting the money was the easy part! Dealing with two countries, shipping companies, Americanizing the trailer etc. was a LOT of work. We have been flying it (and making the payments) for about a year now. Bob McKellar |
#8
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On May 29, 1:18*pm, "noel.wade" wrote:
I am also curious if any clubs have self-financed new equipment (by taking out loans from members)? *Getting ~15 members to each pony up $5k - $10k at 5% interest would get you a new trainer. *And promising individuals a ~5% return on their money is a hell of a lot better than most CDs or Money-Market accounts these days; and even better than some stock portfolios! :-P About 5 years ago I and a few others did precisely that, loaned money to a local club to buy a nice G103C that had belonged to a (sadly) deceased member. We had the option of either 5% interest over a 3 year term or no interest and waiving associated flight fees for the glider. Works well if you have one glider to replace, and members who have ready access to cash, might be a bit tougher during this perpetual recession. It was lucky we did this, primary training fleet was two L-13s, along with two older G103s. In the "I wish..." column, I'd love to see a non-Euro-currency country out there building an inexpensive (say $50k - $60k) trainer. *The aerodynamics nowadays are well-understood so it should be easy to make something simple that has no "bad habits". *I've always been told that its the tooling and labor costs - especially the labor costs - that's the issue. *So shouldn't it be possible to get a known group of aerodynamic and mechanical engineers together to make a solid design, and then fabricate the darned thing in a region with lower labor costs? I'm thinking South America, India, or another area where technically-oriented people live and they can put something together without major quality-control concerns... Seems like it should be possible (see: Embraer, or some of the aerospace contracting that's done in the Asia-Pacific region). *Of course, Windward performance comes to mind for a "local" solution. *I'm sure they have a few Duckhawk orders to process right now, but I wonder if Windward could switch from PrePreg to some simpler fiberglass & kevlar layups and operate cheaply enough to put out a reasonably-priced trainer that's sold in US Dollars? Paging Bob Kuykendall! Please enter URL http://www.kickstarter.com/ 8^) Also, my favorite bizarre concept, an ASK13 clone constructed primarily of CNC cut fiberglass honeycomb and precured sheets, glued together like a giant balsa wood model: http://www.retroplane.net/forum/files/optimist_195.pdf Marc |
#9
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On Tuesday, May 29, 2012 4:18:44 PM UTC-4, noel.wade wrote:
new" for awhile... But their comments really made me see this in a new light: We've been considering the L-13 a $10k - $20k airplane, and the idea of dumping $10k - $15k into it for a fix seems "wrong" because its such a huge percentage of the airplane's value. BUT, there's another way to look at it. Instead of considering the "street value" of the L-13, try considering the cost of the L-13 repair in contrast with the next-better alternative; which is either a Grob-103 or something like a TST-14 "Bonus" or SZD "Perkoz": G-103 = Roughly $35k+ (also likely to be high-time and parts are ??) You point out financing instruments in your post, rightfully so. This view on the Blanik repair, however, is described as a cash-flow rather than equity issue. If we set aside liquidity, the picture is this. When the AD came out those Blaniks lost their value in an instant. No further action will change that. The two options you point out amount to this: 1) Invest, say, $12k to obtain $15k in equity, or 2) Spend $35k on a Twin Astir and get $35k in equity. At 3.5% (some of our members have offered to use their home equity line of credit for this), we're looking at $420 vs. $1225 p.a. in capital cost, and substantially higher cost in hull insurance. A medium-sized club will have to carefully consider if that makes sense. NB, whether you have to go to a bank or use existing capital, the capital cost will be the same apart from the spread in interest rates. I've been pushing club members to look at these things in capital cost and various forms of equity rather than just indulging in cash-basis accounting.. Among the things that it can convincingly show is that a club should not afford to keep gliders around that don't fly as much, or operate a higher-value but less-useful towplane. |
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On May 29, 2:18*pm, "noel.wade" wrote:
On May 28, 9:01*pm, Bill D wrote: There will most likely be a fix eventually but the cost is probably not going to be what people are hoping for. *(I hope I'm wrong about that.) *Please try not to shoot the messenger. I was talking to several folks at a soaring event this weekend, and I had been on the bandwagon of "ditch the L-13s and lets buy something new" for awhile... *But their comments really made me see this in a new light: *We've been considering the L-13 a $10k - $20k airplane, and the idea of dumping $10k - $15k into it for a fix seems "wrong" because its such a huge percentage of the airplane's value. *BUT, there's another way to look at it. *Instead of considering the "street value" of the L-13, try considering the cost of the L-13 repair in contrast with the next-better alternative; which is either a Grob-103 or something like a TST-14 "Bonus" or SZD "Perkoz": G-103 = Roughly $35k+ (also likely to be high-time and parts are ??) TST-14 = Unknown, but gotta be at _least_ $60k+ I'm guessing SZD "Perkoz" = Looks like a sweet setup and cheaper than an ASK-21, but its still ~$85k (public quotes of 65,000 euros) So in light of THOSE costs, dropping $10k - $15k on a Blanik is a hell of a lot cheaper. Of course, its still just a short-term fix. *Like our aging membership issues, we find ourselves in a hole. This time around its equipment and finances. *The US Soaring scene leaned on tired 2-33's (and L-13's) for way too long and did not do a good job of building infrastructure or making stepwise investments in better equipment. *So now we have to try to dig ourselves out of a mess. *I sincerely hope that more clubs do a better job of long-term financial planning than they have done over the last 20 years; it seems that few people consider charging enough money to put aside funds for re-covering, buying new gear, or any other multi-year goals. On the topic of longer-term solutions, I would love to see what the new Lea County State Bank trainer loans look like. *With the EAA and some aviation-oriented banks I can get 7-15 year loan terms on both finished aircraft and even un-built KITS. *It seems that similar financing should be available for sailplanes, with long terms given the lengthy service-life that our aircraft experience. I am also curious if any clubs have self-financed new equipment (by taking out loans from members)? *Getting ~15 members to each pony up $5k - $10k at 5% interest would get you a new trainer. *And promising individuals a ~5% return on their money is a hell of a lot better than most CDs or Money-Market accounts these days; and even better than some stock portfolios! :-P In the "I wish..." column, I'd love to see a non-Euro-currency country out there building an inexpensive (say $50k - $60k) trainer. *The aerodynamics nowadays are well-understood so it should be easy to make something simple that has no "bad habits". *I've always been told that its the tooling and labor costs - especially the labor costs - that's the issue. *So shouldn't it be possible to get a known group of aerodynamic and mechanical engineers together to make a solid design, and then fabricate the darned thing in a region with lower labor costs? I'm thinking South America, India, or another area where technically-oriented people live and they can put something together without major quality-control concerns... Seems like it should be possible (see: Embraer, or some of the aerospace contracting that's done in the Asia-Pacific region). *Of course, Windward performance comes to mind for a "local" solution. *I'm sure they have a few Duckhawk orders to process right now, but I wonder if Windward could switch from PrePreg to some simpler fiberglass & kevlar layups and operate cheaply enough to put out a reasonably-priced trainer that's sold in US Dollars? OK, enough wishing for now... --Noel P.S. *I am sure a few people are thinking about chiming in and saying that a trainer has to be metal because it needs to be tied out. *My only response is: If you can get the trainer down to a reasonable price, you can afford a couple of extra thousand dollars for a nice set of covers. *Also, Polyurethane is probably a good idea (to make repainting/refinishing easier over the next couple of decades), no? Answering your 'PS' first, I fly ASK-21's which are so incredibly easy to rig, we rig them every morning and put them back in their trailers every night. As an old geezer, I've rigged two of them with a couple of teenage CAP cadets to help. Covered trailers are "hangars on wheels" which dramatically extend airframe life. Now, let's say L-13's are now worthless. If you could repair them for $10k, you have a $10k glider which seems like a good deal. But, it would be a 1955 design with a 400Lb payload and probably a 1,500 hour life remaining and no possibility of extensions. OTOH, you could use that $10k for a down payment on an ASK-21 with an 484 Lb payload and a18,000 hour life and charge an extra $10/hr for debt service 'til the loan is paid off. But then, I'm kinda partial to ASK-21's as trainers. |
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