Is SKEW-T still important to soaring pilots ?

Looks very impressive indeed. What typical values do you use for your task setting ? Dan
On Tuesday, March 1, 2016 at 2:28:53 PM UTC-5, Papa3 wrote:
Not just a "browser" but a fundamentally different model. It's been exceptionally useful in task setting giving resolution down to very fine level. UI takes some getting used to, but you only care about a couple of values anyway.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/

Not comprehensive, but:

- Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) height
- Total cloud cover
- Low level cloud cover
- Lifted condensation level (LCL)
- Winds (10M, 850MB)

In particular, the HRRR seems to do an excellent job of handling clouds, both convective and upper air. For instance, if you're worried about a forecast cirrus shield moving in (or out), I've found that the Total Cloud cover really helps develop that situational awareness. "Looks like the north area might get shut down later, let's task the fleet there early and get them back to the south before it starts shutting down". Also very useful to use the cloudbase calculations from XCSoar or DrJack. On ridge days provides detailed view of wind field.

P3

P3, have you found Windyty or ye olde Nullschool useful on ridge days?
Jim

WindyTy is very "pretty", and it gives a great synoptic view of winds and the associated system. In fact, the UI is probably as good/better than anything out there for wind depiction over time. But, it's limited by the fact that the underlying model is only the GFS. Hopefully Walt Rogers will chime in here, but if someone ever wanted to do a project to create the ultimate forecasting tool for gliding, I think it would include meso-scale visualizations (like WindyTy, Dr.Jack) with point-forecast SkewT and related parcel analysis across models (like Bufkit or Bill Moninger's parcel analysis tools) as a point-and-click drill down. The way I think about forecasting for gliding is:

- Big picture/synoptic. Do I even need to dig deeper (along the lines of Doc's Weather forecasting rock if you recall: Rock is wet - it's raining, Can't see rock - it's snowing, Rock is gone -it's windy). Once I know whether it's worthwhile then...

- Meso-scale visualizations. I use Dr. Jack (NAM), HRRR, etc. to get a more detailed picture (lift strength and heights, clouds/cloudbase,wind direction and strength which quadrants look better, etc.)

- Point analysis: If I'm serious about the day, I look at Bufkit or just use the Moninger (Rucsoundings) sight to see what the underlying SkewT looks like, often comparing models. That last bit is important, as we are seeing more and more days here in the east where the models (GFS, NAM, RAP, HRRR) are diverging in one or more critical parameter. So, being able to compare and check for consistency also help instill confidence in the forecast.

Long answer to a short question.

p3

WindyTy is very "pretty", and it gives a great synoptic view of winds and the associated system. In fact, the UI is probably as good/better than anything out there for wind depiction over time. But, it's limited by the fact that the underlying model is only the GFS. Hopefully Walt Rogers will chime in here, but if someone ever wanted to do a project to create the ultimate forecasting tool for gliding, I think it would include meso-scale visualizations (like WindyTy, Dr.Jack) with point-forecast SkewT and related parcel analysis across models (like Bufkit or Bill Moninger's parcel analysis tools) as a point-and-click drill down. The way I think about forecasting for gliding is:

- Big picture/synoptic. Do I even need to dig deeper (along the lines of Doc's Weather forecasting rock if you recall: Rock is wet - it's raining, Can't see rock - it's snowing, Rock is gone -it's windy). Once I know whether it's worthwhile then...

- Meso-scale visualizations. I use Dr. Jack (NAM), HRRR, etc. to get a more detailed picture (lift strength and heights, clouds/cloudbase,wind direction and strength which quadrants look better, etc.)

- Point analysis: If I'm serious about the day, I look at Bufkit or just use the Moninger (Rucsoundings) sight to see what the underlying SkewT looks like, often comparing models. That last bit is important, as we are seeing more and more days here in the east where the models (GFS, NAM, RAP, HRRR) are diverging in one or more critical parameter. So, being able to compare and check for consistency also help instill confidence in the forecast.

Long answer to a short question.

p3

On Thu, 03 Mar 2016 10:27:53 -0800, Papa3 wrote:

Long answer to a short question.

This is about the best 'quick looks' tool I've used:

http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/RASPt...SPtableGM.html

This is a viewer for the UK RASP and also shows Predicted SkewT*LogP
Sounding Charts. Both RASP parameter maps and Skew T charts can be
examined on an hourly basis during daylight for today and to following 5
days, but I think its based on GFS forecasts.


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