ASW27B prices falling

At 17:04 09 August 2017, Tango Eight wrote:
The thing that's always driven willingness to throw down a lot of
money on
=
a glider is competition. $80K is, any way you slice it, a lot of money
for=
a 15+ year old glider (just ask any of our wives :-)). There are a
thousa=
nd reasons the 27 is a great glider. However, performance in
competition
i=
s the one that supported the market price of used 27s at roughly
"every
dim=
e I spent on it since new". =20

What's happening in the competition world? Connect the dots...

Evan Ludeman / T8


Speaking of the USA market, T8 is correct. That is how it has behaved
for the last ~35+ years. As soon as a ship is not at a top competitive
level, the resale value has dropped off rapidly. In Europe, clubs will
tend to buy up these gliders, which means that the market will support
higher prices for these types of birds. In the USA, the re-sale market is

(and has been, but is getting worse due to declining participation) too
thin, so now that the V3 and JS3 are coming out, the ASW-27 and V2
prices will fall. That is just the nature of the beast in the USA....
RO

The new designs have not proven they are better than the 27. The JS-3 while very innovative, has very low wing area, which might prove a hindrance on weaker days, and the V3 has not competed in 15 meters. The 27 might very well be the equal of these newer gliders and priced right to get younger pilots into competitive ships, just one reporter's musings.


On Wednesday, August 9, 2017 at 3:00:07 PM UTC-7, Michael Opitz wrote:
At 17:04 09 August 2017, Tango Eight wrote:
The thing that's always driven willingness to throw down a lot of
money on
=
a glider is competition. $80K is, any way you slice it, a lot of money
for=
a 15+ year old glider (just ask any of our wives :-)). There are a
thousa=
nd reasons the 27 is a great glider. However, performance in
competition
i=
s the one that supported the market price of used 27s at roughly
"every
dim=
e I spent on it since new". =20

What's happening in the competition world? Connect the dots...

Evan Ludeman / T8


Speaking of the USA market, T8 is correct. That is how it has behaved
for the last ~35+ years. As soon as a ship is not at a top competitive
level, the resale value has dropped off rapidly. In Europe, clubs will
tend to buy up these gliders, which means that the market will support
higher prices for these types of birds. In the USA, the re-sale market is

(and has been, but is getting worse due to declining participation) too
thin, so now that the V3 and JS3 are coming out, the ASW-27 and V2
prices will fall. That is just the nature of the beast in the USA....
RO

As I stated before in this thread, a well prepped ASW-20 (with winglets) is pretty much there. A well prepped -20B works well in "heavy conditions."

Take it from a cross country pilot with quite a few hours in a A and C. Sucks on a ridge day @9lbs watching others cruise by you at speed, I won based on knowing when to climb for gap jumps (Mifflin).

I still say, for 90%,nut behind the stick is more important than the glider.
Deep pockets?
Go for it.
More time and training is cheaper and better.

On Thursday, August 10, 2017 at 5:55:14 PM UTC-4, Charlie M. (UH & 002 owner/pilot) wrote:

A well prepped -20B works well in "heavy conditions."

I love my '20. I can out climb any other glider in the sky in small weak thermals.

Guy Byars

At 20:18 10 August 2017, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
The new designs have not proven they are better than the 27. The
JS-3
whil=
e very innovative, has very low wing area, which might prove a
hindrance
on=
weaker days, and the V3 has not competed in 15 meters. The 27
might very
=
well be the equal of these newer gliders and priced right to get
younger
pi=
lots into competitive ships, just one reporter's musings.

Back in the 1980's I flew in 3 WGC's and pretty much had the ability
to get very a low serial number of any new glider that came out in
my class. I chose to fly in Standard Class because it had the most
restrictions - which limited the quantum performance leaps with new
technology, which meant that my investment in my glider tended to
hold its value better due to remaining competitive for a longer
period of time. Nonetheless, that was the period where the newer
generation of turbulated airfoils came out, and the advancement was
quite rapid. It was so rapid that I went through 6 different gliders in
8 years in order to keep on top of the performance changes, which
gave me the best chances in competitions.

Here is how I made the comparisons and the general assumptions I
made. Just for this argument's sake, say that the new glider had a
10 foot per minute cruise advantage over the old one (although I
saw much bigger differences than this on occasion). If one was
going to fly a WGC in a good wx place (like we did in Benalla 1987),
one could have 12 competition days. Assume cruising 75% of the
time, and 4 hour tasks, that meant 3 hours cruising per day X 12
days = 36 hours = 2160 minutes X 10FPM = 21,600 vertical feet
advantage over 12 racing days. Divide that by an average climb
rate of 500FPM, and you get ~43 minutes x ~6 points per minute
= ~260 points advantage the new glider has over the period of the
contest GIVEN flying the same and making the same mistakes.
You can reduce it down for a 9 day Nationals, and I come up with
around a ~195 point advantage at 10FPM.

As I said, some of the observed performance differences were
significantly larger than the 10FPM I use above. I looked at the
numbers and concluded that if I wanted to have any chance of
winning a WGC, I could not afford to give up that many points to
the best in the world in advance, so I switched gliders.

I still have the Discus-2b I bought in 1999, and there is still nothing
better in Standard Class. Additionally, in the USA, we have
handicapped this class, so my glider will stay competitive for the
foreseeable future. Unfortunately, D-2 prices have also fallen off
recently, most probably due to lack of participating pilots in the
class. Back in the 1980's, there were ~16,000 SSA members and 3
racing classes. Now, there are only ~12,000 members, and in
addition to Open, 15m, and STD, we have 18m, Sports, Club,
13.5m, World, and soon a multi-seat class. Too many classes and
too few competitors makes for a really screwy re-sale market....

As I said in another post, In Europe there are enough clubs and
participants where these gliders get absorbed much easier. The
newer gliders are all designed on computers, so they can design nice
handling into them to go along with the great performance. They no
longer have to compromise on the handling / performance issues, so
clubs can buy them and not have to worry too much about the
average member flying these birds. In the USA, most clubs are
pretty strapped for cash, so they will say "We can buy 4 G-102's for
the price of one ASW-27, and the average member won't really need
or see the performance difference." They will buy the used G-102
for ~$18K, and keep the other $62K in the bank for other
contingencies like rebuilding the tow plane engine, etc....

RO

It is worse than you say in your neat note. Membership in the SSA is now below 10,000. Adds to the upscrewyness of the used glider market.

I will throw a different opinion out. Yes, it is supply and demand; but not that the 27b or V2a&b have been replaced by better aircraft.

This shift is because we have a small and shrinking population of racing pilots and an ever increasing number of classes. The std class was the first to go. We now have about four catagory one pilots left in std. class. 15m is being replaced by the 18m class. Most of the competitive pilots that were in std. class and 15m have now purchased 15/18m gliders. The balance shifted in about 2015 with more of the pilots moving to the 15/18m gliders rather than straight 15m. This shift was also exasperated by the creation of the 18/21 class of glider. These gliders now overlap in 18m and open.

In the US this is made worse by the distances required to drive to a contest. A multi class glider means you don't have to drive as far to compete.

The bottom line is those buying a new glider are going to buy a 15/18m or 18/21m glider. The demand for a straight 15m is going to fall. The FAI motto is "We never met a class of glider we won't create a new class for". At the same time it continues to price pilots out of the game and reduces number of people participating in the sport.

At 01:04 13 August 2017, Tim Taylor wrote:
I will throw a different opinion out. Yes, it is supply and demand;
but
no=
t that the 27b or V2a&b have been replaced by better aircraft.

This shift is because we have a small and shrinking population of
racing
pi=
lots and an ever increasing number of classes. The std class was
the
first=
to go. We now have about four catagory one pilots left in std.
class.
15=
m is being replaced by the 18m class. Most of the competitive
pilots that
=
were in std. class and 15m have now purchased 15/18m gliders.
The balance
s=
hifted in about 2015 with more of the pilots moving to the 15/18m
gliders
r=
ather than straight 15m. This shift was also exasperated by the
creation
of=
the 18/21 class of glider. These gliders now overlap in 18m and
open.


In the US this is made worse by the distances required to drive to
a
contes=
t. A multi class glider means you don't have to drive as far to
compete. =
=20

The bottom line is those buying a new glider are going to buy a
15/18m or
1=
8/21m glider. The demand for a straight 15m is going to fall. The
FAI
mott=
o is "We never met a class of glider we won't create a new class
for". At
=
the same time it continues to price pilots out of the game and
reduces
numb=
er of people participating in the sport.

And for those of us who can't afford to buy a new $150K competitive
glider, we are left with the handicapped classes where one can still
be competitive with an older and much less expensive glider.
Standard class is handicapped, but limited to only Standard class
gliders, whereas Sports and Club classes have broader ranges of
gliders allowed. Having 3 handicapped nationals per year allows the
contests to also be geographically spread out, which cuts down on
travel time and expenses too. So that is where you will find the
pilots (out of this ever shrinking pool) who want to compete but
can't afford the minimum $150K entry price in Open, 18m & 15m...
Of course this kind of "racing" won't sit well with the "purists" who
just want to go "head to head" with other pilots, but I suppose that
those folks could also go race 1-26's for a cheap one design class...
I am staying with my STD class glider because I can fly STD, Sports,
and Club classes with it, and be competitive in any of them...
RO

On Sunday, August 13, 2017 at 8:30:09 AM UTC-4, Michael Opitz wrote:
I am staying with my STD class glider because I can fly STD, Sports,
and Club classes with it, and be competitive in any of them...
RO

Same here, RO. I bought my state-of-the-art Standard Class glider 25 years ago. I've flown it in five classes (Std., Sports, 15M, Open, and FAI Combined/Handicapped 15M/Std.) and am still competitive in Std., Sports, and Club (thanks, Rules Committee!). I owned a 15M glider for many years and would love to fly flaps again but the cost makes no sense at this point in my life. UH helped me refinish my fuselage last winter and my wings are on the list for this winter. So my plan is to close out my gliding career in the same aircraft I've been flying since 1992.

Soaring has never been inexpensive. It's just even less so now. And, yeah, the proliferation of classes doesn't help, although ironically it arguably makes the Std. and 15M classes somewhat more affordable as used prices decline with shrinking popularity. So as long as they don't disappear entirely....

Chip Bearden

On Sunday, 13 August 2017 04:04:20 UTC+3, Tim Taylor wrote:
The balance shifted in about 2015 with more of the pilots moving to the 15/18m gliders rather than straight 15m.

I bet you can count straight 15m gliders manufactured after 2005 with your 10 fingers.